The economist predicted the dollar exchange rate for the coming months
The dollar exchange rate on the international Forex platform reached a minimum of 80.9 rubles against the background of a decrease in the global index of the American currency and the relative strengthening of the Russian currency caused by the structural features of the domestic market. Anna Anisimova, director of the Merchant CRM service, told about this on Monday, April 14.
According to the economist, the trigger for the depreciation was the general weakness of the dollar in international markets due to the increasing instability of US trade policy. The expert believes that the sharp increase in import tariffs imposed by Donald Trump as part of a new round of trade war, especially with China and North American countries, has caused investor distrust and increased volatility in the foreign exchange markets.
Another reason was the persistence of low import volumes in Russia caused by the high cost of credit facilities, which reduces demand for foreign currency, the economist said. Thanks to this, the ruble received temporary support, despite the absence of fundamental growth factors. At the same time, the long-term stability of the current exchange rate is questionable, the economist stressed.
"Even a temporary weakening of the dollar does not create grounds for a steady strengthening of the Russian currency," Anisimova said in a conversation with Lenta.Ru .
According to Anisimova's forecast, a more likely scenario for the coming months may be a return to the range of 85-88 rubles per dollar with a worsening foreign policy background or an increase in imports. Thus, the strengthening of the ruble should still be considered as a market phenomenon, and not as a long-term trend, the economist concluded.
Earlier in the day, the Russian currency strengthened against the dollar, according to the website. kp.ru . The exchange rate of the US currency dropped by 0.57% at 11:01 Moscow time, reaching 82.75 rubles, RIAMO said. By 12:00, the exchange rate had fallen to 80.96 (-2.25%). This happened for the first time in six months — since June 2024.
Spartak Sobolev, head of Alfa-Forex's Research and investment strategies department, told Izvestia that price fluctuations in the range of 80-86 rubles per dollar, 89-96 rubles per euro and 10.85–11.80 rubles per yuan are expected this week.
According to him, the decline in oil prices below $60 per barrel of Brent has not become sustainable, and the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the United States on geopolitical issues inspire optimism regarding ruble assets.
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