Escape on the spot: what will lead to a new escalation between Moldova and Russia
A new scandal broke out between Moldova and Russia. Chisinau has accused employees of the Russian embassy of helping convicted MP Alexander Nesterovsky escape from the country. In this regard, the Moldovan authorities announced the expulsion of three Russian diplomats, one of whom was responsible for security in the Transnistrian region. Izvestia investigated the situation.
The trial lasted for two years
Opposition MP Alexander Nesterovsky was at the center of the scandal in Moldova. Back in 2023, he was accused of corruption and political fraud. According to investigators, the MP received $35,000 from fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor for defecting from the Socialist Party to the Renaissance Party. In addition, Nesterovsky allegedly transferred $100,000 to another parliamentarian, Arina Spatar, so that she would act in the interests of Shore.
On March 19, the two-year trial ended, and the Chisinau court sentenced the accused to 12 years in prison. Nesterovsky himself did not appear in court, and his lawyer Anatoly Pitel said that the defendant had received Russian citizenship. "It happened the other day, maybe yesterday, maybe the day before yesterday, by a special decree of the President of the Russian Federation. I can't tell you what it is," he stressed.
Then there was no news from the deputy for almost two weeks, and then the Moldovan information and security service reported that Nesterovsky allegedly fled to Transnistria, and Russian diplomats helped him. The security service published a video showing a man walking around the courtyard of the Russian embassy, then talking to someone on the phone, then a car with diplomatic plates drives over the bridge over the Dniester River.
Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Ozerov denied all charges. According to him, there is no evidence, except for vague footage. "I have not seen this man. How do I know if he went [to the embassy] or not? Dozens of people come to us every day for consular matters. These issues are discussed within the framework of a bilateral dialogue on the basis of interstate legal documents, they are not made within the framework of public statements," he was indignant.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pridnestrovie also reported that the ministry does not know Nesterovsky's whereabouts. But Moldovan President Maia Sandu promised to seek the return of the fugitive from Tiraspol. She also condemned the Russian embassy for "unfriendly steps and interference in the affairs of justice."
Looking through a magnifying glass
After the scandal broke out, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry announced the expulsion of three employees of the Russian embassy from the country. The corresponding note was presented to the head of the diplomatic mission Oleg Ozerov. He called the events a serious blow to bilateral relations. "It is impossible to comment on videos in the age of AI, we consider the accusations against us to be untenable," he stressed.
The situation was complicated by the fact that among the three expelled is Alexander Andreev, who is the Russian co-chairman of the Joint Control Commission (JCC), which manages the peacekeeping mission in Transnistria. The settlement in such conditions was under attack, the work of the commission was temporarily blocked, and the next meeting of the JCC was scheduled to take place on April 3, but it did not take place.
The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said in this regard that Chisinau was trying to interfere with the work of peacekeepers. "We consider these actions as an element of incessant attempts to distort the proven format. And, of course, it is alarming that the expulsion of the Russian co—chairman coincides with the emerging positive developments in the work of this body," she said.
In turn, representatives of the Moldovan opposition drew attention to the oddities in the escape case. For example, former President Igor Dodon noted that if Nesterovsky was on the territory of the embassy, it was before the court decision. "If the law enforcement agencies had suspicions, they could impose some restrictions, for example, prescribe house arrest or something else. It's your fault if you assumed evasion, but did not make any decisions," he said.
Maria Zakharova, Official Representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
The former chairman of the Accounting Chamber of Moldova, Marian Lupu, said that the Moldovan special services had completely failed. According to him, the security forces were filming commercials, "cinematic art," but could not catch the violator. "This is another proof that we need to bring back professionals everywhere," he said. Lupu also added that perhaps the authorities were originally going to make a scandal out of this story, so they were negligent.
The threat to Transnistria
Apparently, there will be several consequences of the current scandal. On the one hand, the situation in the Transnistrian settlement zone will really become more complicated. There have been a lot of alarming signals lately. Back in December, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported that Maya Sandu demanded that the heads of law enforcement agencies develop a plan for a military operation to establish control over Transnistria and eliminate the Russian peacekeeping presence.
In March, an additional cause for concern was the fact that Vladimir Zelensky signed a law that allows units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be sent to other countries during martial law in Ukraine. "We are concerned that this law may be directed against Pridnestrovie, especially against the background of loud statements in this regard, which have been repeatedly made by politicians in Kiev," said Oleg Belyakov, co—chairman of the JCC from Pridnestrovie.
The second point is the inevitable deterioration of relations between Moldova and Russia. There have been plenty of complicated plots lately without the current story. For example, Russian Ambassador Oleg Ozerov arrived in Chisinau in October, but has not yet been able to meet with President Maia Sandu to present her credentials. In February, the Moldovan authorities announced the closure of the Russian Center for Science and Culture (Russian House). In mid-March, the Russian embassy was blocked for several hours, citing reports of mining.
What the experts say
Moldovan political analyst Alexander Korinenko believes that relations between Moscow and Chisinau are now in the worst state in all the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
— According to the established diplomatic practice, the expulsion of Russian diplomats from Chisinau will be followed by the expulsion of Moldovan diplomats from Moscow. It will be a heavy blow to our Diaspora. Thousands of Moldovan citizens work in Russia, even a banal change of documents in such conditions will be problematic for them. In general, it seems that Maya Sandu's team is working towards severing diplomatic relations. They haven't decided to announce this yet, but they are making the work of the Russian embassy as difficult as possible," he emphasizes.
Natalia Kharitonova, Chief Researcher at the Russian State University of Economics, Doctor of Political Sciences, calls the expulsion of diplomats part of a large anti-Russian trend.
— Many Russian TV channels and Internet sites are banned in Moldova, pro-Russian politicians are being prosecuted, the most striking recent example is the arrest of the head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul. Parliamentary elections are due to be held in the country this year, and the authorities are trying their best to clear the political space of Russian influence," she explains.
Kharitonova adds that Moldova is becoming a new hotbed of instability in Eastern Europe.
— Transnistria is under a very big threat in the current conditions. I am sure that at some point we may see some provocations in the security zone. At the same time, Russia will not be able to intervene quickly, it has fewer and fewer levers of influence. But Chisinau may well involve Romania, which it considers its ally, in the process. I remind you that Romania is a member of NATO, which means that the crisis may become uncontrollable," she emphasizes.
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