Missile response period: deployment of Turkish base in Syria worries Israel

Israel considers the deployment of a Turkish base in Syria a potential threat to its freedom of action, an informed source told Izvestia. Earlier, the media reported that Turkey has begun construction of a base in Tiyas in the province of Homs and plans to deploy the Hisar anti-aircraft missile system there. It is also claimed that Ankara may deploy Russian S-400 systems on Syrian territory, which is possible only with Moscow's permission. Against the background of increasing Turkish military influence, the Israeli army carried out massive shelling of Syrian territory on the night of April 3, and clashes between the IDF and Syrian fighters took place in the province of Deraa in the south of the country.

Israel has launched large-scale strikes on Syrian territory

Israel considers the deployment of a Turkish military base at the Tiyas Airbase (T4) in Syria as a potential threat to its freedom of action in the region. This was reported to Izvestia by a senior Israeli source.

Turkey has begun the process of taking control of the T4 airbase, located near Palmyra, and plans to deploy Hisar air defense systems there, the Middle East Eye portal reports, citing sources. They claim that construction work is already underway at the facility, and in the future Ankara intends to expand the base's infrastructure by deploying surveillance systems, drones and a layered air defense system.

"Israel considers the deployment of the Turkish base as a potential threat to its freedom of action," the source told Izvestia.

The IDF has already attacked military installations in the area, including T4. On the night of April 3, Israeli aircraft attacked the settlements of Tel Juma and Tel al-Jabiya. The Syrian authorities reported the deaths of nine civilians. Israeli aircraft also hit airfields in Hama and Homs, which led to their almost complete destruction.

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Against the background of these large-scale strikes, clashes also took place between Syrian army soldiers and Israeli fighters in the province of Deraa in the south of the country.

Another factor attracting attention is the possible deployment by Turkey of Russian S—400 anti-aircraft missile systems based on T4 or in the Palmyra area.

According to Middle East Eye, Ankara admits the possibility of temporarily deploying these systems to protect the airspace during the reconstruction of the base. However, no final decision has been made yet. The issue remains sensitive, as this will require permission from Russia, the supplier of the complexes.

Attempts to deploy air defense systems concerned not only the T4 airbase, but also the airport in Hama, where Turkey planned to deploy these systems, Vladimir Akhmedov, a researcher at the Center for the Study of Common Problems of the Modern East of the Islamic Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. In Damascus and its suburbs, it was a question of deploying electronic warfare systems.

"However, the deployment of Russian S—400 systems on Syrian territory is possible only with Moscow's permission, which makes this issue the subject of political negotiations," the expert said.

Turkey is already negotiating with the United States to lift sanctions imposed after the purchase of the S-400. Recall that in 2019, Washington excluded Ankara from the F-35 fighter supply program precisely because of the acquisition of Russian air defense systems.

Relations between Israel and Turkey

Relations between Turkey and Israel have been unstable in recent years. The attempt at rapprochement in 2023 failed after the outbreak of Israel's war with Hamas. Ankara has strongly condemned the actions of the Jewish state in the Gaza Strip. The events in Syria have only exacerbated the situation. Israel fears Turkey's growing presence in the country, especially after Ankara supported the armed groups that played a crucial role in overthrowing Bashar al-Assad last December.

The Israeli authorities point to the past of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, recognized in Russia as a terrorist organization and banned), which until 2016 was associated with Al-Qaeda (recognized in Russia as a terrorist organization and banned). Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called HTS an Islamist jihadist terrorist group, expressing concern that the new leadership of Syria could pose a threat.

"On the ground," Israeli forces began moving their forces into the buffer zone between the annexed Golan Heights and southern Syria. Since then, the Israeli military has established control over a number of territories near the Golan, further complicating the situation.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, alluding to Israel, that he would not allow third countries to interfere in the Syrian conflict. "Those who want to take advantage of Syria's instability will not succeed. We will not allow Syria to be divided according to their plans," Erdogan said.

In such circumstances, any change in the balance of power in Syria, including the possible strengthening of the Turkish military presence in the central part of the country, becomes a risk factor for Israel.

What role does Russia play in Syria?

The escalation between Turkey and Israel in Syria creates new challenges for all sides, but it also highlights the importance of the Russian military presence as a stabilizing factor. According to expert Vladimir Akhmedov, Russia previously played a key role in ensuring security, especially in southern Syria, where its units were stationed.

— In the summer of 2024, the Russian Federation deployed its military on the territory of the Syrian units in the south, which were supposed to ensure the security of the line on the Golan Heights. The Israelis were pleased because it deterred the Shiite militias, which were supported by Iran," Akhmedov said in an interview with Izvestia.

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After the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, it was reported that the Russian Federation withdrew troops from various regions of Syria, transferring them to the Khmeimim airbase and Tartus. Today's strikes and the escalating confrontation may indicate that the absence of Russian forces in these areas is making the situation less predictable and military clashes more real. In this context, the issue of the return or even strengthening of the Russian contingent is being raised, which could reduce the level of tension, Vladimir Akhmedov believes. Despite the obvious risks of continued strikes, the current situation itself confirms that without a Russian military role, the balance is becoming shaky.

— The exchange of "pleasantries" between Israel and Turkey once again raises the question of the need to maintain Russian bases to reduce tensions. As long as Moscow retains the status of a security guarantor, the parties are interested in its presence. However, the ongoing escalation and strikes, on the contrary, carry risks of destabilization," the expert says.

So far, there have been no demands from the Syrian leadership for the withdrawal of Russian troops. At the end of January, a Russian interdepartmental delegation visited the SAR, the first since the change of power. An important topic of negotiations then was the issue of preserving Russian military bases.

Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian President's special Representative for the Middle East and Deputy Foreign Minister, acknowledged that the situation remains uncertain. Earlier, in an interview with Izvestia, he said that the Russian Federation's position on Syria remains unchanged, despite the political situation, and is based on friendship and partnership.