The balance of power in the Arctic may change, according to journalists from the South China Morning Post (SCMP). In particular, according to the newspaper, Beijing may adjust its position due to the possible rapprochement between Moscow and Washington. Seven years ago, the Chinese authorities presented the Polar Silk Road plan, which provides for greater access to the natural resources of the Arctic, as well as an increased role for China in managing this territory. However, now, according to SCMP, China may choose a different strategy. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The danger of rapprochement
China will reconsider its policy of presence in the Arctic, including the desire to become a great polar power by 2030, due to a possible agreement between Russia and the United States on cooperation in the region. This is reported by the South China Morning Post, citing sources and experts.
In 2018, the Chinese authorities published the Polar Silk Road plan, which provides for wide access to the natural resources of the Arctic and a significant role in the management of the territory. In the same place, China called itself an Arctic state, despite the distance of 1,400 km separating this country from the Arctic Circle. The publication notes that Chinese ambitions have caused a negative reaction from the Arctic countries.
Now a source familiar with the situation claims that China's alleged interest in continuing expansion in the Arctic has declined due to geopolitical tensions. According to him, the Chinese have stopped calling themselves the Arctic state, and China's interest in the region has significantly decreased.
The experts contacted by the authors of the SCMP article fear that if Moscow and Washington come to an agreement on the Arctic, the question will arise as to who the Russian Federation would prefer to cooperate with — the United States or China — or Russia will try to maintain a balance.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that the United States and Russia are considering the Arctic as a possible area of economic cooperation. Moscow and Washington discussed logistics and exploration of natural resources, including energy. According to Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, who participated in negotiations with the United States in Saudi Arabia, the countries need to do joint projects, including in the Arctic and other areas.
Agency sources believe that the American authorities see cooperation in the Arctic as an opportunity to distance Russia from China.
The American Arctic Strategy
At the end of July last year, during the Biden administration, the US Department of Defense adopted an updated Arctic Strategy, which replaced the document developed during the first term of Donald Trump in 2019.
The United States calls itself an Arctic state, although its Arctic territory is limited to Alaska. Nevertheless, Washington considers this region strategically important, as there is a competition for influence.
The document identifies two Arctic subregions: the North American Arctic, with the United States and Canada, as well as the European Arctic, which includes the Arctic territories of Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden (NATO allies), plus the Russian Kola Peninsula.
According to the document, the North American Arctic plays a key role in the defense of the United States, providing opportunities for aerospace and maritime control. The United States has repeatedly announced plans to strengthen cooperation with Canada and its NATO allies in the European Arctic to strengthen its defense capabilities.
The United States has stated its desire to preserve the Arctic as a stable region. However, they planned to achieve this goal through the development of military technologies. The Pentagon was going to strengthen intelligence, cooperation with allies and conduct regular exercises to deter threats. Special attention was paid to the development of military equipment capable of operating at low temperatures, as well as the development of aerospace technologies.
Separate chapters of the document are devoted to the policy of the Russian Federation and China in the Arctic, as well as strengthening Russian-Chinese cooperation in this region. Russia, which has a powerful military potential in the Arctic, including the Northern Fleet and strategic nuclear forces, has always been seen as a source of risk for the United States and its allies.
The document expresses particular concern about the restoration of Soviet military facilities and the creation of new military infrastructure.
In turn, China, not being an Arctic state, is actively seeking to strengthen its influence in the region by gaining access to resources and participating in governance. China calls the Arctic the "common heritage of mankind," which is of concern to the United States. China is seen as a "step-by-step challenge", that is, a country that is gradually strengthening its position, but does not yet pose a direct military threat.
Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic, including joint military exercises, has caused concern in Washington. The foreign ministries of China and Russia reject the accusations, saying their policies comply with international law and are not directed against third countries. The Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly called the strategy of the previous American administration an attempt to escalate tensions in the region.
Natalia Vyakhireva, Senior Researcher and Head of the Canada Department at the Arbatov Institute for the United States and Canada, noted that the Pentagon's Arctic strategy entered the public field shortly after the conclusion of the so-called icebreaking agreement between the United States, Canada and Finland. The countries sought to use it to change the balance of power in the North.
"The three countries have announced the creation of a trilateral consortium, the Ice-Breaker Collaboration Effort, to challenge Russia and China in the construction and deployment of new-generation icebreakers," the expert explained.
According to her, in the US National Strategy for the Arctic Region 2022, designed for a ten—year period until 2032, the main stated goal is to increase the US presence in the region.
"We are talking about a military, diplomatic, and economic presence. Practical solutions in the format of the icebreaker deal and the new Arctic strategy of the US Department of Defense demonstrate the consolidation of the vector towards strengthening the US presence in the Arctic region," the expert concluded.
Into China's hands
Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI) HSE Vasily Kashin, in an interview with Izvestia, stressed that so far no normalization of relations between Russia and the United States has yet taken place.
— In fact, China pays great attention to the Arctic for three important reasons. The first is the climate, meaning the Arctic affects the entire global climate agenda. To be involved in this agenda, it is necessary to conduct research in the Arctic, understand what is happening there, and somehow take into account the issues of global governance related to it," the political scientist believes.
The Arctic port of federal importance on the route of the Northern Sea Route
According to Kashin, the second reason is economic.
— The Arctic is a storehouse of resources that will become available in the event of ice melting.
China is buying up resources all over the world. And the third important component is the prospects of the Northern Sea Route," the expert believes.
He stressed that China is moving in all three directions, and until recently it had quite good relations and cooperation with all Arctic countries.
— The Chinese had major economic projects in Russia, Canada, Norway, Iceland, Greenland. In the future, as Sino-American relations deteriorated, they began to be heavily pressured and pushed away from various strategically important Arctic initiatives," the expert said.
The Sinologist stressed that cooperation with Russia has begun to play a special role for China.
— It has started to develop. Last year, we established a sub-commission for cooperation in the Northern Sea Route. NATO has already declared China a security challenge. And all the Arctic countries, except Russia, are members of the alliance," the expert emphasized.
According to Kashin, if Russia's relations with the United States normalize, this will not negatively affect Chinese projects in the Arctic.
— Rather, it will have a positive effect. Because American sanctions are an important obstacle to Chinese investment in Arctic projects. Due to the imposition of blocking sanctions against the Yamal LNG project, the Chinese were forced to limit their participation in it," the political scientist explained.
The expert believes that if China has the opportunity to safely conduct financial transactions, invest in Russian Arctic projects without fear of American sanctions, and involve American oilfield service companies in projects where Russia and China do not have their own expertise, "this will be a great help for Russian-Chinese Arctic cooperation."
The source also pointed out that the South China Morning Post is "associated with the globalized part of the Chinese establishment."
— That is why in many cases there may be a more critical position in relation to cooperation with Russia. But it is nevertheless an important publication, and it must be monitored to understand the full range of opinions. There are people who express such a point of view. It is most likely poorly connected with reality, but it is there, the expert is sure.
Nuclear icebreaker Yakutia
Alexey Maslov, Director of Africa and Asia at Lomonosov Moscow State University, expressed a similar position in an interview with RBC. "The SCMP publication mainly refers to American experts who for some reason believe that China is somehow moving away from the Arctic topic. But if they bothered to read the latest publications in the Chinese media space — various economists who consider it necessary to go to the Arctic, then this topic, of course, would not disappear," the expert emphasized.
According to the political scientist, China has built four ships in the last few years alone, which theoretically can pass through the Arctic space. In addition, all plans for Chinese shipments to enter the Arctic are included in the five-year development plan. The Sinologist added that nuclear icebreaking vessels are available only in Russia, and therefore China is going to work very actively with the Russian Federation.
Last August, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese Prime Minister Li Jiang signed an agreement on cooperation in this area. For China, this can be a solution to many problems, first of all, access to the Northern Sea Route. The other sea route is through the Suez Canal, partly through the Panama Canal, which is currently experiencing a number of difficulties.
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