What Trump proceeds from in his relations with Ukraine. Analysis
Since the beginning of his second term, US President Donald Trump has demonstrated an ambiguous attitude towards Ukraine for the West. He demanded a deal on mining, criticized Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in absentia and sparred with him in person, then suspending military aid for a while. At the same time, Trump claims that he wants to achieve a peaceful settlement most of all. What determines his policy towards Ukraine is in the Izvestia article.
How Trump's attitude towards Ukraine has changed
• The roots of Trump's current attitude towards Ukraine and its president, Vladimir Zelensky, go back to 2019. Then, during Trump's first term, it became known about his attempts to get Ukraine to investigate corruption against Hunter Biden, the son of Joe Biden's future presidential rival. This topic was discussed in a telephone conversation between the two presidents.
• Although the media linked Trump's request to the provision of military and financial assistance to Ukraine, in the end, the United States did not refuse to allocate funds, and there was no investigation into Biden Jr. For the US president, this story ended with an attempt at the first impeachment, as he was accused of abuse of power in the Democratic Party.
• Five years later, Trump again had personal complaints about Zelensky. During the American election campaign in 2024, the Ukrainian leader visited an artillery factory in Pennsylvania, which was then a wavering state. He was accompanied by Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro and Democratic Senator Bob Casey. During the trip, Zelensky questioned Trump's ability to end the conflict in Ukraine, and at the same time called JD Vance, who was chosen as vice president, too radical. The Republican camp perceived this as an attempt to interfere in the American elections in order to prevent Trump from being re-elected.
• Later, Trump demonstrated emphasized neutrality towards Zelensky and Ukraine, confirming his intention to bring an end to the conflict in the country, but without revealing the details of his plan. After the victorious elections, he did not make harsh statements like those he made about Panama, Canada and Greenland. Before taking office, Trump met with Zelensky and appointed special envoy Keith Kellogg, known for his "hawkish" position, which was perceived as a benevolent attitude towards Kiev.
• After taking office, Trump began to distance himself from Ukraine again in his public speeches and actions. He initiated a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was extremely negatively perceived in Ukraine. In response to criticism, Trump recalled the high costs of maintaining the Ukrainian army and demanded that a mining deal be concluded to reimburse them (we wrote more about this deal here).
• However, no agreement was concluded. Although Trump and Zelensky reached an agreement, on the day of the signing in Washington, they sparred in front of the American media. Trump accused Ukraine of disrespecting the United States and demanded an apology from Zelensky for his behavior in the Oval Office, where the meeting was held. The conflict led to Trump's decision to suspend all military aid to Ukraine. Assistance and intelligence were not provided until Zelensky agreed to discuss a truce.
What determines Trump's attitude towards Ukraine
• According to Trump's statements and actions, it can be concluded that Trump is not interested in Ukraine. Analysts even tend to assume that she annoys him. The roots of his relationship go back to the geopolitical worldview, according to which a balance of power should be established in the world between the great powers: Russia, the United States and China. This idea is opposed by the globalist forces that support Ukraine. Trump does not share their common vision of the world and understands the need to create a multipolar system in which he himself is ready to defend American interests in his region without affecting others.
• Without any special sentiments about Ukraine, Trump still sees it as a practical benefit for himself. After returning to the White House, he wanted to "buy" Ukraine from Europe and the Democratic Party, which consider it their asset. Based on this, he proposed to conclude a deal on the extraction of minerals. But Zelensky, realizing such intentions on the part of the White House, preferred to aggravate his already not very warm relations with Trump. The subsequent reaction from other Western leaders who sided with the Ukrainian president confirmed that the global world does not consider the alliance of Zelensky and Trump as necessary and acceptable to themselves.
• Trump used the clash with Zelensky to suspend military assistance to Kiev, which should also be understood as shifting responsibilities for protecting Ukraine onto the shoulders of European countries. He has shown that he is not ready to compromise, but will pursue his goals of upholding American interests, especially since he now has broad support in his country and may not look back at other participants in world politics.
• At the same time, it is worth noting that Trump has not officially announced the termination of aid to Ukraine. Unnamed representatives of the White House did it for him through the media. This suggests that the US president reserves the opportunity to win back any step back. Neither Ukraine nor military supplies interest him as much as the opportunity to escalate relations with globalist Europe, especially if he does not have to bear public responsibility for this.
• It is not essential for Trump that his decision could lead to Ukraine's defeat militarily and politically. He is just waiting for it to lead to the collapse of the globalist camp formed in Europe and building its identity around Kiev. Trump views this camp as allies of the Democratic Party, which for him is the main irritant in the domestic arena. Perhaps Trump's attention to Ukraine would not have been focused at all if right-wing forces dominated in Europe, which are much more skeptical of Kiev. It is no coincidence that one of the few European politicians whom Trump respects and considers his ally is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a long-time opponent of Ukraine's integration into the European space and providing military assistance to it.
• Regarding Trump's attitude towards Ukraine, world leaders should understand that he is an irreconcilable rival for them, using the Ukrainian card to confront them. The head of the White House is ready to escalate further, in which Ukraine will be the first loser, as he understands how reverent it is in London, Paris and Berlin.
• The Chinese factor also plays an important role. Trump does not hide the fact that he sees Beijing as the main competitor of the United States, and there is a hidden struggle for influence in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition, purely economic reasons make Trump believe that the most important thing is to solve the problem of China, while Ukraine turns out to be a distracting and annoying factor. Trump remembers that he doesn't have much time to achieve his goals: congressional elections will be held in two years, and if he fails to achieve results that are obvious and understandable to Americans, Republicans will lose some of their seats, which will weaken the president's power.
How Trump's psychology influences his politics
• It should be noted that Trump's attitude towards Ukraine and any other political actors in general is based not only on practical considerations, but also on personal motives. According to his psychological characteristics, Trump is a fairly predictable person. He belongs to the hysterical personality type, which is characterized by vivid public behavior. Because of this, Trump tries to always be the center of attention. At the same time, he combines his hysteroidness with adventurism, that is, the ability to take risks for fame. He clearly demonstrated this during his election campaigns, when he violated all norms for the sake of his goal, since the same behavior helped him achieve success in business, where there is no rigid framework of decency, as in politics.
• As President of the United States, Trump also continues to use techniques on the verge of a foul for the sake of attention. In disputes with opponents, he can use unverified facts and compromising material to create an image of a strong, forward-thinking politician around himself. Zelensky, getting involved in a dispute with Trump, did not take into account how important it is for an American politician to have the last word, no matter what political consequences this may lead to. It's easy for Trump to humiliate an interlocutor if he feels that attention has shifted to the other side.
• Trump often behaves emotionally unstable, and therefore tries to attack his opponent first, even if circumstances did not force him to do so. For him, losing and being defeated are the same thing, so he tries his best to avoid an unpleasant outcome for himself, even in matters that have no substantive content. But if Trump's attack is not accepted, he is capable of giving up. It is difficult for him to resist deliberately calm and confident opponents.
When preparing the material, Izvestia communicated and took into account the opinions of:
- Vladimir Mozhegov, an American political scientist;
- psychologist Irina Smolyarchuk.
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