Grain to grain: Russia has ousted the United States in the Chinese wheat market
For the first time, Russia has displaced the United States in the Chinese wheat market, shipping almost twice as much to China as American suppliers. China previously imported a fair amount of grain from the United States, and is now actively increasing purchases from Russia. At the same time, China is far from a key market for the Russian Federation. The details are in the Izvestia article.
Increased purchases
Based on the results of the first eight months of the current agricultural year (started in July 2024 and will end at the end of June 2025) Russia shipped 275 thousand tons of products to China, the USA — 147 thousand tons.
"This season, China has sharply reduced imports amid a record harvest, including from the United States, and in eight months it has imported about 1 million tons from major suppliers, including 275 thousand tons of wheat from Russia. For the first time, this is more than the volume of 147 thousand tons imported from the United States," the Rusagrotrans analytical center said.
Canada has supplied about 0.5 million tons to this country since the beginning of the season, and small volumes have been shipped from the EU and Australia.
According to the center, in previous seasons, China imported significant amounts of wheat from the United States: from 1 million to 2 million tons per season out of a total volume of 13-14 million tons.
However, since March 10, as a countermeasure, Beijing has imposed 15 percent import duties on wheat imports from the United States. This measure, together with other tariff changes from the PRC, expectedly gave Russian grain and meat exporters a chance to displace the United States in the Chinese markets of these export positions.
China is increasing imports of agricultural products from Russia due to the growing aggravation of the US-Chinese trade contradictions, notes Dinara Vasbieva, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
In addition, due to sanctions regimes and retaliatory measures, American suppliers have faced changes in logistics and trading patterns. This includes a revision of supply conditions and routes, as well as stricter quality control standards and, as a result, increased costs for cross-border trade, says Vadim Petrov, a member of the Inter-Sessional Financial Advisory Group (IFAG) IOC UNESCO.
— Therefore, large volumes of American grain — up to 1-2 million tons per season — were gradually reduced in favor of supplies that did not require such complex approval procedures. The attractiveness of the United States for Chinese importers was declining. Russia, on the contrary, has managed to take advantage of the changed geopolitical balance and significantly expanded its presence in the global wheat market," the analyst explains.
Contracts with Russia
The expansion of purchases from Russia is also the result of a series of foreign trade agreements between the Russian Federation and China on the supply of agricultural products.
In particular, in the field of grain, leguminous and oilseed crops, a 12-year contract was signed for the supply of 70 million tons of these crops. And thanks to the launch of the Trans-Baikal grain terminal, which provides grain shipment capacity of up to 1,200 t/h, and the additions made to the protocol on phytosanitary requirements for corn, rice, soybeans, rapeseed (allowing corn and rice to be exported to China from all regions of Russia, not just adjacent to China), the implementation of a large-scale agreement has become real., says Galina Sorokina, Director of the GUU Institute of Economics and Finance.
Finally, high yields in 2022-2023 allowed Russia to offer the most competitive grain prices on the world market.
Russian manufacturers have invested heavily in the modernization of the agricultural complex, which has allowed not only to increase volumes, but also to increase the competitiveness of products at the international level. In addition, the expansion of transport corridors and the development of logistics networks have given additional impetus to export expansion. Thus, China considers Russia as a reliable and promising partner capable of quickly and in large volumes meeting the needs of the world's largest food market in the face of declining grain supplies from the United States, Vadim Petrov emphasizes.
Strengthens the position
Interestingly, despite the growth of Russian wheat imports to China, this Asian market has not yet become a key one for Russia. In the second half of 2024, Egypt turned out to be the main buyer of these agricultural products from the Russian Federation. During this time, the African country increased the volume of wheat imports from Russia by 1.8 times, to 5.45 million tons. Turkey, Iran, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia are also among the top five importers.
In general, in July–December, Russian suppliers shipped 30 million tons of wheat to foreign markets. And, of course, the prospects for replacing American grain with Russian grain are not limited only to the Chinese market.
The decrease in Russian grain supplies to Europe is more than offset by the increase in supplies to Africa and the Middle East. For example, in 2025, wheat exports to Morocco, Nigeria, Lebanon and Cameroon more than doubled compared to the same period in 2024. Latin America is also actively buying Russian grain.
According to all forecasts, the demand for Russian wheat in these and other markets will only grow: there is a good price, reliable supply, and attractive long-term contract terms.
Strengthening our position in the Chinese market is an additional opportunity for Russia. Interestingly, back in the 2010s, China imported modest amounts of corn and wheat, averaging just over 3 million tons each per year. This accounted for about 2% of annual global imports, a drop in the bucket compared to China's total grain consumption. But already in 2020, imports increased sharply, buying almost 30 million tons of corn alone, says Sergey Tolkachev, professor at the Department of Economic Theory at the Financial University.
According to Agroexport's forecast, grain exports from Russia may exceed 75 million tons by 2030, and in monetary terms grow to more than $17 billion. About 80% of the value will be accounted for by wheat, the rest by corn and barley.
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