Growing Africa: wheat from Russia has conquered the Black Continent
In January, Russia shipped grain to the Republic of Togo for the first time. 27 thousand tons of soft wheat was sent to Togo, which was certified by the relevant authorities. The small country in West Africa became the next state of the continent where Russian bread supplies were sent. The African market is becoming more and more popular for Russian exporters. What are the prospects of Africa for wheat from Russia and which countries are ready to accept the largest volumes of Russian bread - in the material of "Izvestia".
Booming demand
When Russia gradually turned into the leader of the world's wheat exports (and grain exports in general), its main buyers were primarily in Asia. In 2021, the main importers of wheat from Russia were Turkey and Iran. Among the African countries, the Arab part - Egypt and Algeria - stood out. At the same time, ¾ of exports accounted for the six largest consumers - in addition to the above-mentioned Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Meanwhile, African demand for wheat has been growing year by year.
- Africa is one of the most promising markets from the point of view of the development of Russian wheat exports, as there is a high rate of population growth there and at the same time the need for imported grain to meet domestic demand is increasing, - stated Yaroslav Kabakov, Strategy Director of Finam Investment Company.
The population of the continent is indeed growing very fast - by 2.3% per year. Or by 100 million people every three years. In 2010, there were about a billion people living in Africa, and in 2024 - a little less than one and a half billion. Population wealth is increasing much more slowly, but there is progress here too. Food habits are changing accordingly. The continent (excluding the Arab-Berber North) has historically favored traditional crops, but now European and Middle Eastern products that include wheat flour are increasingly consumed.
At the same time, crop growth is quite modest. Between 2010 and 2020, they increased across the continent by a quarter, from 20.9 million tons to 25.3 million tons. Demand jumped by almost 30% to 75.9 million tons over the same period, before continuing to grow. All these needs are covered by imports from the north and, to a lesser extent, from the northwest. Russia was in the right place at the right time to radically increase its market presence. The donation of 500,000 tons of wheat to the poorest African countries in 2022 played no small part.
Growth of 60%
In 2023, Russian wheat exports to African countries increased by 60% to 17.6 million tons. The growth rate slowed down slightly in 2024, but remained exceptionally high. In January-October, more than 21 million tons were supplied to various African countries, which amounted to a 35% increase over the same period of the previous year. It should be noted that for other crops the growth was even more solid: for example, supplies of barley increased 2.8 times, and corn - 2.3 times. However, here there was an effect of low base and, in general, relatively small export volumes. Supplies of poultry meat are also growing steadily, having increased sixfold in five years.
Returning to wheat, we note the rapid growth of exports to Kenya. For example, in the agricultural season - 2022/23 the volume of supplies amounted to 1.1 million tons, and in the season-2023/24 - already 1.5 million tons. As of mid-November, Russian supplies to Kenya reached 820.7 thousand tons. A few years ago Kenya was not a significant export destination, but now its value in this capacity is rapidly increasing. For Kenya itself, Russian supplies account for about 60% of all imports.
To Africa via the Baltic
Prospects for the development of the African market for Russian grain exporters remain huge, according to the experts interviewed. Russia is the largest supplier of wheat to the countries of the region, says Denis Ternovsky, a leading researcher at the center of agrifood policy of the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEI) of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
Among the largest importers are Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania and Angola. Russia supplies wheat to all these major markets, being (with the exception of Nigeria) one of the three largest importers, and in the markets of Kenya and Tanzania holds a dominant position, the expert said.
- The potential to expand supplies and strengthen positions in the fairly large markets of Ethiopia and Senegal remains. In general, the markets of African countries are open for Russian suppliers, and the export potential is largely determined by production capabilities in Russia," Ternovsky added.
According to Daria Snitko, head of the center for economic forecasting at Gazprombank, Egypt remains the largest importer of wheat from Russia in the current season:
- In 2024/25 (as of mid-January 2025), Russia exported more than 5 million tons of wheat to Egypt, 1.5 times more than in the corresponding period of 2023/24. Russia is successfully competing for the North African markets with traditional European suppliers (primarily France). Thus, in the current season, Russian wheat exports to Algeria are growing - by 9% (data from July to January), Morocco - growth almost three times, Tunisia - twice.
She added that supplies of domestic wheat in the current season increased to such African countries as Nigeria - 4.5 times compared to 2023/24 and Kenya - 1.4 times growth. According to Rosselkhoznadzor, Russian grain shipments to Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sierra Leone resumed in 2024.
- The use of ports in the North-West, including Vysotsk, offers great prospects for wheat exports to West African countries. The cost of delivery from these ports is lower than the more traditional export route via the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea," emphasized the Izvestia interlocutor.
As Yaroslav Kabakov noted, Russia in general is the largest supplier of agricultural products to Africa, providing more than 14% of African food imports, where vegetable oil and cereals prevail.
- Given the growing demand for wheat and other crops in Africa, the potential for further export growth remains significant. Expansion of port infrastructure, including the launch of new terminals in the Gulf of Finland, will allow Russia to increase export capacity and diversify supply routes," he concluded.
In fact, the expansion of supplies to Africa for Russia at the moment remains limited only by its own harvests and export capacity. For domestic agriculture, this is a growth potential that has almost no ceiling.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
