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Borders are the key: what will reconciliation between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan lead to?
The presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed a border agreement, after which the parties opened land communication between the countries, and regular flights resumed. Experts call the incident a historic event that will significantly improve the situation throughout Central Asia. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
On the verge of war
The border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan lasted for more than 30 years, and it was hampered by the difficult terrain and ethnic strife. The confrontation turned into skirmishes dozens of times, the largest clashes occurred in September 2022, when the parties used not only small arms and mortars, but also heavy armored vehicles and aircraft. As a result, about 100 people died, and more than 140,000 local residents had to be evacuated.
At the same time, it became clear that if the problem was not solved, sooner or later a full-scale war would begin. As a result, the leaders of the two countries showed political will and began difficult negotiations on delimitation. The delegation was headed by Kamchybek Tashiev, head of the Kyrgyz secret service of the National Security Committee, and his Tajik counterpart Saimumin Yatimov, who have met in person many times over the past three years. Last December, they announced that they had fully resolved all issues.
Kamchybek Tashiev, Head of the State Committee for National Security of Kyrgyzstan
In February, the details of the agreement became known. The exact boundaries of the large Tajik enclave of Vorukh, surrounded by the territory of the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan, were outlined. The road that connects Vorukh with the main part of Tajikistan has received a neutral status. In addition, the parties agreed to exchange some territories. For example, Bishkek will transfer the village of Dostuk to the neighboring state, in return it will receive the village of Samonion and several other plots, in total in this case 142 hectares will be exchanged for 142 hectares.
As a result, at the end of February in Bishkek, Tashiev and Yatimov initialed (pre-signed) a border delimitation agreement. "This important legal document will be presented to the top leadership of our states. If it is legalized, a century-old dispute will be put to an end. This meets the historical aspirations and will serve the political, social, cultural and economic interests of the two fraternal peoples," said the head of the Tajik delegation.
Holiday with pies
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon flew to Bishkek in mid-March for a visit, during which he met with his Kyrgyz counterpart Sadir Japarov, and the politicians solemnly signed an agreement on the state border. "I am confident that the signing of the document between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will be a momentous historical event that will be enthusiastically received by our peoples and the international community," Japarov said after the ceremony.
President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov and President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon (from right to left) during a meeting
Next, the document will be submitted to the parliaments of the two countries for consideration, and after its ratification, the presidents will re-sign it. The heads of state are expected to exchange instruments of ratification on March 31 at a summit in the Tajik city of Khujand, where Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will also attend. After that, the resettlement of villages intended for exchange will begin, as well as the installation of border signs and other infrastructure.
At the same time, a serious warming in relations between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is already noticeable. So, after signing the agreement, Emomali Rahmon and Sadyr Japarov opened the land border between the countries via video link. Two checkpoints have been operating, which have been closed since 2021, when violent clashes began. The ceremony turned out to be quite colorful, with people in national costumes watching the lifting of the barriers from both sides of the border, and then shaking hands and warmly hugging.
In addition, flights between the two countries have resumed. On the morning of March 14, a Tajik airline plane took off from Dushanbe to Bishkek. In the Kyrgyz capital, it was solemnly greeted with a water arch, and passengers were fed festive pies with boorsocks. It is expected that the first technical flight in the opposite direction will depart on March 16, and in the future flights will be operated weekly. In addition, regular bus services are expected to resume soon.
Against this background, the parties discussed the prospects for further economic cooperation. It is known that Rahmon and Japarov agreed to establish an intergovernmental council that will work out promising areas of cooperation, as well as to establish a water management commission that will regulate hydropower issues. At the same time, the parties announced their intention to increase the volume of bilateral trade to $500 million (by the end of 2024, the trade turnover amounted to only $12 million).
The President of Kyrgyzstan also advised neighboring countries to consider introducing a kind of Central Asian Schengen. According to Japarov, after the settlement of the Bishkek-Dushanbe border dispute, there are no problematic borders left in the region. "Now the Central Asian countries should begin the process of introducing a visa—free regime among themselves, and for guests from other countries — a single visa that allows them to move freely across all countries of the region, similar to the Schengen visa," he said.
International observers positively assessed the warming between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. For example, the Russian Foreign Ministry said it welcomes the signing of the agreement on the state border. "In the spirit of alliance, the Russian side has always provided political and diplomatic assistance to partners in Bishkek and Dushanbe," the ministry stressed. In turn, the CSTO secretariat noted that resolving border issues would contribute to the progressive development of the Central Asian region.
What the experts say
Political scientist Rustam Burnashev believes that the armed conflict that occurred between the countries in 2022 was of key importance for resolving the border issue.
— At that moment, the parties were on the verge of a major war, it became clear that the issue needed to be resolved somehow, and it would not be possible to postpone the matter. At the same time, I note that the political leadership of the two countries was constructive, and disagreements arose more at the local level. Another important point is that we now have political agreements, and demarcation on the ground is next. This is also a long and painful process, for example, the border between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan was delimited in 2002, and the demarcation was completed only a year ago," he notes.
Orientalist Azhdar Kurtov lists several reasons for resolving the border dispute.
— First of all, the leaders of the two countries realized that the difficult situation on the line of contact makes it difficult to attract investments, no one wants to invest in those countries where there is a threat of a large-scale conflict. Secondly, the current Kyrgyz authorities turned out to be focused on solving complex issues, in 2023 they were able to delimit the border with Uzbekistan, and now they have achieved the same in relations with Tajikistan. Thirdly, the position of Russia and China, which want Central Asia to remain a peaceful region, played a role, they somehow pushed Bishkek and Dushanbe towards a peaceful solution," he emphasizes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
