Dali Duban: why coups are constantly exposed in Kyrgyzstan
For the fifth time in a year and a half, an attempted coup was exposed in Kyrgyzstan. Security forces detained 11 people, among them former MP Bakyt Kerimbekov. During the searches, the operatives found a grenade, a pistol, ammunition and instructions on overthrowing the authorities. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Make it to the post
Kyrgyz police detained 11 people on suspicion of preparing mass riots. It is reported that all of them were members of the patriotic organization "Zheti Duban" ("Seven Oaks"). The names of the suspects are not given, but the media reports that Bakyt Kerimbekov, a former member of parliament, went to jail.
According to operational information, the defendants in the case regularly held meetings where they discussed further plans, including organizing actions and rallies that were supposed to lead to destabilization of the situation in the country, pogroms and destruction of property. A criminal case has been opened, and the alleged rebels face seven to 10 years in prison.
The security forces also published recording of a conversation in which the conspirators discuss their plans. One of the interlocutors says that he wants to take the post of mufti of the country and suggests "turning off the switches" at the Toktogul HPP. According to him, as a result, "all cars and all life in general will stop." Another person involved reports that the fighting backbone of the organization has been created. "We need to get together before the fast and come to a final decision," he says, referring, apparently, to the Muslim fast in the month of Ramadan, which this year will begin on March 1.
The security forces also released footage of searches of the alleged conspirators. A grenade, a pistol, ammunition, camouflage clothing, a special balaclava mask, license plates, drugs, and religious literature were seized as evidence. Separately, the security forces showed a brochure entitled "How to overthrow the country's leadership," written in Russian and Arabic. Apparently, this is a translation of a booklet that was distributed in Egypt during the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
"There will definitely be a mess"
Conspirators are regularly exposed in Kyrgyzstan. In June 2023, employees of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB) detained 30 people on suspicion of plotting a coup. During the searches, bundles of money, flash drives, credit cards and numerous seals were found. According to the security forces, the members of the group were going to organize riots at the moment when the government would make some unpopular decision and objective discontent would arise in society.
Law enforcement agencies of Kyrgyzstan
The security forces named the oppositionist Rosa Nurmatova as the leader of the group. The State Committee for National Security published a recording of the conversation, the video begins with the words of one of the interlocutors, who says that "there will definitely be a mess." "Internally, I'm already ready for this. You need to know exactly how many guys there are, we need both numbers and physical strength," Nurmatova replied. Interestingly, the defendants in the case were then placed in jail, but since then there has been no news about the progress of the investigation. Apparently, the case has not yet reached court.
President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov
In January last year, the country's president announced that businessman Imamidin Tashov and activist Tilekmat Kurenov were going to stage a coup in the country. "Their plans were to organize riots, they wanted to shoot several participants or use explosive devices, which could lead to the death of people. They would have blamed the authorities for the tragic outcome and thereby intensified the popular protest, and would have held a more massive rally," he noted.
In July last year, GKNB officers detained five people who, according to law enforcement officials, had established links with Islamic extremists. It was reported that on the Independence Day of the country, which is celebrated on August 31, they were going to hold a major horse racing event on the outskirts of Bishkek. After the celebration, special provocateurs were supposed to lead the crowd to the center of Bishkek, along the way they were supposed to capture a shooting range with an arsenal of weapons.
Finally, in November last year, security forces detained seven people, among them the former deputy Prosecutor General of the country, Kuban Adyl uulu. According to the investigation, the group planned to seize power on November 17, the day of the local elections. The scenario roughly repeated the previous attempt — they wanted to gather people at the stadium and then take them to the center of Bishkek. The conspirators have serious props were seized: a thousand bottles of vodka, a ton of rice and a horse that was going to be slaughtered for cooking pilaf.
Protests after the parliamentary elections in Bishkek, October 2020
In Kyrgyzstan, what is happening is controversial. The opposition believes that the authorities are using numerous criminal cases to tighten the screws and persecute opponents. In this regard, it is also often recalled that in recent years several "grant" media outlets have been closed or blocked in the country, a law on foreign representatives (inoagents) has been adopted, and a new constitution has entered into force, which has given the president additional powers.
Supporters of the authorities remind that the country has a rich experience of coups — during the years of independence, the ruling team was changed three times with the help of the street. President Japarov says in this regard that he will not allow a fourth revolution."We will work ahead of the curve and identify leaders who are intruders who are ready to gather people and shoot them surreptitiously or set off an explosion. The punishment will be severe. We won't babble with them like they did before us," he promises.
What the experts say
Igor Shestakov, a Kyrgyz political scientist and director of the Oh Ordo Center for Expert Initiatives, explains that three presidents in the country were ousted during coups, and only one, Almazbek Atambayev, left office after his term expired.
— Today, an experienced tandem is at the head of state — President Sadyr Japarov and head of the National Security Committee Kamchibek Tashiev. Both have spent a long time in the opposition, they know well what can be expected from a protest camp, they understand the financing mechanisms, the ideological base of the opponents, and the possible methods of their work. Accordingly, quite effective work is underway to ensure security and socio-political stability. Numerous arrests make it clear that the state has its finger on the pulse, will stop all attempts to go beyond the law," he notes.
Alexander Kobrinsky, Director of the Agency for Ethnonational Strategies, draws attention to the fact that there is a weak evidence base in coup cases.
— During searches, they find one grenade, then a pistol, then some pamphlets, and, as a rule, about 10 people are detained. It is impossible to organize a coup with such forces. As a result, my main version is that the security forces are simply portraying violent activity, imitating a fierce struggle against the enemies of the state," he explains.
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