Pre-modern times: regions began to prepare for high water
After a warm winter, flooding is expected to be weaker than last year, but there will be flooding, the Hydrometeorological Center said. Some of the Russian rivers have already been opened from the ice, and the peak of the flood will be in April. Flooding is possible almost all over the country — Murmansk, Leningrad, Novgorod and Kirov regions, as well as in Bashkiria. They are also waiting for him in the Orenburg region, which was seriously affected by water in the spring of 2024. A broken dam has been repaired there and they are preparing to cut and blast ice to reduce the likelihood of ice jams and reduce the risks of flooding settlements.
What will the high water be like
The flood will be weak on the European territory of Russia, Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center, told Izvestia. This conclusion can be drawn based on the water reserves in the snow cover, the depth of freezing and the water content of the soil, which depends on the rains and snowmelt that took place in the fall, and the calculated models.
— In the center and south of the European part of the country, water reserves in the snow cover are significantly lower than normal. And this is a clear sign that there will be no heavy flooding," he said. — The soil is slightly frozen.
The winter in most of the country turned out to be warmer than usual, the Russian Hydrometeorological Service noted. By the beginning of March, the water reserves in the snow cover in the river basins of the European part of Russia were mostly below the average annual values. For example, in the Volga basin, they were about 65% of the norm. Water reserves in the snow in the basins of rivers and reservoirs in Siberia turned out to be near the norm or more. But in the Far East and Yakutia, they are unevenly distributed.
"Water reserves in the snow exceeded the norm in the territory of the Upper and Middle Amur, the Zeya, the Olekma and Vitima basins. In Primorsky Krai, the water supply in the snow cover exceeded the norm in the northern regions of the region, reaching 110-150% of the norm," the certificate on the expected nature of the spring flood of 2025 says.
By the end of the first decade of March, the rivers of the Kaliningrad region, the lower reaches of the Don, the upper and middle reaches of the Oka River had been opened from the ice. Ice melting has begun on the rivers of the west and south of the Central and west of the Northwestern Federal Districts. There is no ice on the rivers of Crimea and the southern part of the North Caucasus and Southern Federal Districts, the Russian Hydrometeorological Service emphasized.
High water is a characteristic phenomenon for the spring period, when the snow melts, Roman Vilfand recalled. Whereas a flood is called a sharp rise in the water level.
Where can there be problems
Flooding is predicted this year in the Orenburg region on the Ural River and its tributaries, Roman Vilfand noted. Orenburg and Orsk were noticeably affected by the water last spring, he recalled.
The flood of 2024 was the most severe since 1957. On April 5, a dam in Orsk burst, which protected the city from flooding of the Ural River. In Orenburg, about a third of the entire territory was flooded. More than 30 thousand houses were damaged in the region. Roads, boiler houses, wells and transformer substations were under water. The settlements were cut off from transport links. Rescuers evacuated people to temporary accommodation facilities.
The Kurgan, Tyumen and Omsk regions also suffered from floods last spring, where hundreds of residential buildings and household plots were flooded.
The Orenburg region is seriously preparing for spring waters this year, Denis Pasler, the head of the region, assured at a meeting on skipping the spring flood in 2025. Thus, a comprehensive check of the regional and municipal public notification systems was carried out. We have prepared equipment and watercraft.
"In the autumn of 2024, commission surveys of hydraulic structures were conducted in municipalities. The largest ones are federally owned," the head of the region said on the Telegram channel.
Last fall, the destroyed sections of the protective dam in Orsk were restored, and additional protective structures are being installed on it. It is also planned to clear the riverbed of the Sorochka and Soroka rivers.
"During the flood period, municipalities have formed a stock of chemicals and reagents for water disinfection. Backup power supply sources are also being prepared," the head of the region assured.
The ice will be sawed and blown up to avoid congestion and reduce the likelihood of flooding settlements, he added. Denis Pasler instructed the heads of municipalities to clear bushes and debris from the spaces under bridges, ravines and "other similar potentially dangerous places" by April 1.
"Taking into account the evolving situation, cultural, educational, healthcare and social protection institutions are ready to act in accordance with the flood algorithm for 2024," the head of the Orenburg Region assured.
He instructed the Regional Ministry of Construction to prepare the necessary stocks of crushed stone and soil for possible emergency work.
Flooding is also predicted in the Murmansk, Leningrad, and Novgorod regions, Roman Vilfand added.
— Increased probability of flooding in Ufa and Kirov. Outbuildings may be damaged there," he said. — Flooding is possible in a number of settlements in the Samara and Sverdlovsk regions.
Maximum flood levels are expected to be significantly higher than normal on the Ishim rivers in the Tyumen Region and the west of the Omsk Region, the Russian Hydrometeorological Service added. There, the excess can range from one and a half to four meters.
"With the most unfavorable development of the flood, its maximum on the Ishim River near the village of Ilyinka (Tyumen region) may exceed the extremely high value of 2024," the forecast says.
The water level is expected to be higher than normal on a number of rivers in the Novosibirsk region, such as the Karasuk, Tartas, Tara, on certain rivers in the Omsk, Tomsk, Irkutsk regions, Yakutia and Khabarovsk Territory, on the rivers of the southern half of the Sakhalin Region, on the Tigil River in the Kamchatka Territory.
What to do in case of flooding
During the opening of rivers from ice, congestion can form in the Leningrad region, Karelia, Vologda and Arkhangelsk regions, Bashkortostan, Nizhny Novgorod and Sverdlovsk regions. Congestion is also possible on the Ob and Irtysh rivers, on the Yenisei and its tributaries, Roman Vilfand added.
The peak of the flood, according to him, will be in April, although some rivers will open from the ice only in May.
— In the north and in Siberia, the river opening period falls on April-May. We have a huge country, and if the soil is already melting in the south of European Russia, high water is still ahead in the Asian part of the country," he explained.
So, in Yakutia, the formation of ice jams will depend on the weather in May, said Dmitry Sadovnikov, First Deputy Chairman of the Government of Yakutia. 163.1 million rubles have been allocated for flood preparation in the region, of which 62.6 million rubles are from the federal budget. The funds will be used for cutting ice and cleaning dangerous areas.
— We plan to accumulate 25 tons of explosives in case of need and use aviation to monitor the situation. We will also create a reserve of materials in the amount of 244.83 million rubles," he assured. — Starting in April, we will work with the Ministry of Emergency Situations and use mobile complexes from Roscosmos to obtain up-to-date information about the situation on the rivers. This will help us respond to changes faster.
The expected places of ice congestion are mostly traditional, the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Alexander Kurenkov, added at the board meeting. 274 ice breaks have already been planned, as well as sawing and icebreaking operations.
— All those regions that participated in flood relief in 2024, I hope, have drawn conclusions. I would like to establish cooperation with all those who participated in flood relief in 2024, because there is a lot of experience there. Some preventive measures need to be implemented today," he stressed.
If a warning has been received about the threat of flooding, it is necessary to turn off the water, gas, electricity, extinguish the fire in the furnaces, move valuables to the upper floors or attics, the Ministry of Emergency Situations reminded. When the evacuation is signaled, it is necessary to quickly collect and take with you documents in sealed packaging, valuables and medicines, a set of clothes and shoes for the season, a supply of food, and then go to the evacuation point.
In case of a sudden flood, you need to take the nearest safe elevated place and stay there until help arrives. It is advisable to help rescuers locate people. To do this, it is better to hang a cloth in the daytime, and in the dark, light a lantern and give them signals. Products that have fallen into the water should not be eaten, the Ministry of Emergency Situations reminded.
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