The reverse vector: Georgia is increasingly reorienting towards the East
Georgia, in the context of a fierce confrontation with the West, is increasingly turning to the East. In recent weeks, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has traveled to the UAE, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Izvestia figured out what the geopolitical reorientation would lead to.
Kobakhidze traveled to Tashkent and Ashgabat
Georgian officials are actively exploring the eastern direction this year. For example, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze visited the UAE twice in winter, where he signed a memorandum with Arab investors for $6 billion, and also participated in the World Summit of Governments. In addition, in January and February, he traveled to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Kazakhstan.
In March, Kobakhidze made a multi-day tour of Central Asia. First, in Tashkent, he talked with the heads of both chambers of the Uzbek parliament, Prime Minister and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Among the main topics are the further development of trade, which has already grown by one and a half times over the past year, as well as new logistics projects, primarily the so—called Middle Corridor, which should connect China and Europe bypassing Russia.
After that, Kobakhidze traveled to Turkmenistan, where he met with the President of the Republic, Serdar Berdimuhamedov. During the talks, the Georgian Prime Minister also recalled the project of the Middle Corridor, separately stressed the interest in Turkmen energy resources. According to him, Georgia could be engaged in gas transit in the western direction, that is, it actually supported the implementation of the frozen Trans-Caspian pipeline project.
Other Georgian officials have also developed serious activity in the region and in the eastern direction. For example, Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili visited Turkey in February, where she spoke with her counterpart Hakan Fidan. Following the talks, the diplomats said they had discussed the strategic importance of the Black Sea region, the Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum gas pipeline, the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway and the Southern Gas Corridor.
In turn, Speaker of the Georgian Parliament Shalva Papuashvili and President Mikhail Kavelashvili received Speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament Sahiba Gafarova in Tbilisi in mid-March. The parties signed a memorandum of cooperation between the legislative assemblies of the two countries. In addition, the resumption of passenger railway service between Tbilisi and Baku was discussed. It is assumed that transportation, which stopped during the Covid era, will resume on May 1.
The EU continues to criticize, Trump remains silent
At the same time, the contacts of the Georgian authorities with European countries have been reduced to almost zero. None of the country's leaders went to either the Davos Economic Forum or the Munich Security Conference. Bilateral contacts are maintained only with Hungary. Viktor Orban flew to Tbilisi in November, and Speaker of the Georgian Parliament Shalva Papuashvili paid a return visit to Budapest in late January. "It is here that we feel true friendship and Europeanness," he said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze
At the same time, further deterioration of relations is on the agenda. EU Ambassador to Georgia Pavel Gerchinsky said in late February that Brussels "cannot accept human rights violations," so it is working on the introduction of pan-European sanctions. At the same time, the three Baltic republics expanded their restrictions in early March, calling on other EU countries to follow suit. Thus, Estonia added 55 Georgian officials and security officials to the blacklist, Lithuania — 74, and Latvia — 16.
Apparently, another escalation will follow in the near future. The fact is that on March 12, a Georgian court sentenced Mikhail Saakashvili to nine years in prison in a case of embezzlement of $3.2 million in budget funds. It is noted that the former president will be credited with 3.5 years that he has already spent behind bars, that is, he will be in custody until 2030. At the same time, European deputies have repeatedly demanded that Saakashvili be released and transferred abroad for medical treatment.
Interestingly, Georgia has not yet become closer to the new American administration. Until recently, there has been a lot of talk in Tbilisi that Donald Trump is ideologically close to the "Georgian Dream", shares conservative values, and is generally more inclined to develop business contacts rather than promote any ideological attitudes. "We have a convergence of values, much will depend on whether the Trump administration can defeat the deep state," Irakli Kobakhidze said.
So far, however, no progress has occurred. Donald Trump and his closest associates did not say a word about Georgia, nor did they revoke the previous administration's decrees on freezing financial aid and suspending strategic partnership with Tbilisi. In general, nothing is known about Washington's strategy in Transcaucasia. The White House is obviously more preoccupied with other issues, including tariff wars, the fight against illegal migration, and the Ukrainian settlement.
Recently, additional signals have appeared. For example, U.S. Senators Jim Risch and Jeanne Shaheen introduced a bipartisan bill called the Megobari Act in mid-March. The document criticizes Tbilisi for "the brutal suppression of protests and the movement towards authoritarianism," as punishment, it is supposed to completely revise relations between the two countries and impose sanctions against the Georgian leadership. The Georgian Dream criticized the initiative, saying that the act is not worth the paper it is written on.
What the experts say
Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Issues, emphasizes that Georgian foreign policy has not changed since last year's elections.
— Georgia has long relied on the diversification of foreign policy relations. She established intensive contacts with China, refused to impose sanctions against Russia, and took a number of other important steps. In this sense, nothing is radically changing now, Tbilisi continues to adhere to its previously chosen course. Another thing is that all this is happening against the background of the crisis in relations with the European Union, and Brussels is almost openly demanding a change of power in Tbilisi. But I emphasize that it was not Georgia that turned away from the EU, it was the EU that alienated Georgia, the position of the country's authorities on the equal development of relations with all important players remains the same," he explains.
Political analyst Archil Sikharulidze says that the Georgian authorities are forced to look for alternative ways of development in the context of the conflict with the West.
— Previously, Georgian politicians saw the country exclusively as a part of the European Union, now they are betting on turning the republic into an important transit state, a bridge between Europe and Asia. We don't know yet how long-term this trend is. I think if the conflict with the West continues for another year or two, then this understanding of their own role in the world will strengthen both officials and the population. If there is any warming up with Brussels and Washington in the near future, then the Georgian Dream will be happy to meet its Western partners halfway," he explains.
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