The path of disengagement: EU enlargement slowed by lack of consensus

The EU enlargement process has slowed down due to disagreements within the association. In particular, this concerns North Macedonia - its accession is being blocked by neighboring countries, the republic's prime minister, Christian Mitskoski, told Izvestia. According to him, the EU remains hostage to some states. Despite the fact that Brussels is committed to the idea of enlargement, the entry of new members is delayed. Georgia has refused to negotiate its accession to the EU until 2028, and a number of countries of the association oppose the membership of Ukraine. Izvestia reports on the prospects of the bloc's enlargement.

Will North Macedonia join the EU?

Negotiations on the accession of North Macedonia to the European Union have stalled because of the position of some countries of the association, said "Izvestia" Prime Minister of the Republic Christian Mitskoski. He noted that Skopje has been waiting to join the EU for 25 years.

- It depends not only on us, but also on the EU. Will they want to remain hostage to some member states or will they take a merit-based approach. We have been waiting for this opportunity (to join the EU. - Ed.) for 25 years. So it depends on them," Christian Mitskoski told Izvestia.

The state used to be called Macedonia - until 1991 it was part of Yugoslavia. In 2001, Macedonia became the first Balkan republic to sign an association agreement with the EU, and in 2004 Skopje applied for accession. However, integration was opposed by Greece, which demanded that Macedonia change its name.

The reason is that Athens has its own province of Macedonia in the north of the state, and the presence of a neighboring country with the same name could give rise to territorial claims. It was only in 2018 that Skopje and Athens signed the Prespa Agreement, which renamed the country to North Macedonia. Despite opposition and presidential veto, the necessary amendments were made to the constitution, and in the spring of 2020 the republic joined NATO.

However, in 2024, the moderate nationalist party VMRO-DPMNE came to power in North Macedonia. When taking office as president, the representative of the faction, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, pronounced the old name of the republic, which provoked an angry reaction from Greece. Athens demanded compliance with the Prespa Accords, threatening in return to block Skopje's accession to the EU.

North Macedonia's conflict with Bulgaria

North Macedonia's relations with another neighbor, Bulgaria, are no less complicated. Although Sofia was the first country to recognize its independence in 1992, both countries have claims against each other. Bulgaria considers the Macedonian language to be a dialect of Bulgarian, and the Macedonians themselves to be part of the Bulgarian nation. Skopje, on the contrary, is sure of the existence of a Macedonian minority in the neighboring country.

In 2017, North Macedonia and Bulgaria signed a friendship treaty, but three years later Sofia blocked negotiations on Skopje's European integration after another scandal. In 2022, under pressure from the EU, Bulgaria's parliament lifted its veto. In return, North Macedonia must amend its constitution to include a provision on Bulgarian national minority.

The European Commission is looking forward to the start of negotiations with North Macedonia on the main block of issues when the conditions set by the EU Council are met, an official spokesman for the European Commission told Izvestia. Among the conditions is the amendment of the basic law.

- "North Macedonia needs to continue implementing EU-related reforms, in particular within the core bloc, namely those related to the functioning of the judiciary and the ability to effectively fight organized crime and corruption, including in high-level corruption cases. In addition, we look forward to North Macedonia's adoption of constitutional amendments that include a reference to citizens who are part of other nations, such as Bulgarians," the EC added.

It is worth noting that the leaders of Skopje's ruling VMRO-DPMNE party have repeatedly said they would never support the inclusion of Bulgarians in the constitution. In February 2025, the prime minister of North Macedonia once again said that he did not see the need to include "about 800 Bulgarians" in the constitution. However, these are only those who declare their Bulgarian identity; in total, about 100,000 North Macedonian citizens have Bulgarian passports. The current government in North Macedonia has so far shown no willingness to make concessions to Bulgaria, so the prospect of EU membership is probably postponed.

Who else could become part of the EU

North Macedonia is just one of the countries waiting in line to join the EU. A total of nine countries now have candidate status. Among them are the states of the Balkans - Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro. In addition, such status has been granted to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Turkey, which has been waiting for accession since 1999 (the country applied for accession in 1987). Kosovo is considered a potential candidate, but the independence of the self-proclaimed republic is not recognized by five EU countries - Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Cyprus and Greece.

The Balkan states have a better chance of European prospects, although their mutual disputes slow down negotiations. For example, Serbia considers Kosovo part of its territory. Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot enter the EU without the consent of its entity, Republika Srpska. Montenegro is the furthest advanced, but its application may be blocked by Croatia because of a conflict over historical memory. Albania has not solved the problems of black market and organized crime.

A source in the European Union told Izvestia that Brussels is "fully and unequivocally committed to the prospects of the Western Balkans' membership in the EU". Moreover, in December 2024, the EU Council agreed on a document in which the same commitment applied to Ukraine and Moldova. Turkey remains a candidate, and the course of the Georgian government was called in it "jeopardizing the European path".

At the same time, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have fundamentally different situations. In 2023, the EU granted candidate status to Georgia, while negotiations have begun with Ukraine and Moldova. Moreover, Bulgaria, Hungary and Croatia expressed their support for Tbilisi's European prospects.

However, in 2024, Georgia's relations with the EU deteriorated: first, the Georgian parliament passed a law on foreign agents, which was opposed by the opposition. Then parliamentary elections were held, which resulted in the ruling Georgian Dream party retaining power, but mass protests broke out in the country. In November 2024, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced the suspension of negotiations on accession to the EU until 2028. Against this background, Brussels is discussing the imposition of sanctions against the Transcaucasian republic.

The prospects of Ukraine's accession to the EU have been discussed for many years, but substantive negotiations between Kiev and the EC started in the summer of 2024. Hungary and Slovakia openly oppose Kiev's European prospects. Budapest points to the problem of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia, as well as the violation of freedom of speech. Slovakia also believes that Kiev is not ready for EU membership, and Bratislava's position is also influenced by Ukraine's decision to stop transit of Russian gas through its territory.

Unlike Ukraine, Moldova's main problem is the lack of public agreement on EU membership. In October 2024, the country held a referendum to enshrine the EU membership course in the constitution. The amendments were supported by only 50.35% of those who voted, and the victory of the supporters of European integration was achieved at the expense of the votes of voters abroad.

EU enlargement has been put on hold due to lack of funds and the standoff with Russia in Ukraine. Montenegro, North Macedonia and Moldova have the best chances of joining, Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Russian State University, told Izvestia. At the same time, Brussels is interested in the accession of wealthy Norway, whose population twice rejected EU membership in referendums in 1972 and 1994, the expert summarized.