Experts named the reasons for the strengthening of the ruble
The Russian ruble continues to strengthen against the background of several key factors influencing this trend. The current dynamics of the exchange rate is related to both geopolitical changes and internal economic processes, Natalia Pyrieva, a leading analyst at Cifra Broker, and Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, told Izvestia on March 11.
"The strengthening of the ruble is associated with optimism about de-escalation in geopolitics, the influx of capital into the Russian stock market from foreign investors who sell the currency and buy rubles, respectively. In addition, net sales of foreign currency from exporters increased in February, which increases the volume of supply on the market," notes Pyrieva.
According to her, the current strengthening of the ruble is only partially embedded in the cost of goods and services.
In addition, Dudchenko notes that high volumes of currency sales by exporters and the actions of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) also support the ruble.
"A positive factor for the ruble was the growth in the volume of foreign currency sales on the market by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance," he says.
However, experts agree that the strengthening of the ruble may be temporary.
"We believe that the ruble will be moderately strong during the first half of the year due to seasonal factors. In the second half of the year, the weakening trend will recover, as the compression of revenues from the oil and gas sector, while restoring demand for foreign currency from importers and the population, may provoke a shortage of liquidity in the market and lead to a weakening of the ruble," Natalia Pyrieva predicts.
Dudchenko also believes that the ruble may weaken in the medium term.
"We expect that a possible rate cut this year and a gradual decrease in Russia's trade balance will play in favor of the weakening of the national currency," Dudchenko summed up.
Digital Broker analyst Ivan Efanov, in an interview with Izvestia, said on February 25 that, in addition to geopolitics. The strengthening of the ruble was influenced by an increase in net sales from exporters and a high key interest rate. In turn, Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments, clarified that at the beginning of 2025 there were too many speculative bets against the ruble on the market, which eventually burned down, which increased the collapse in foreign exchange rates.
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