The United States may disable Starlink in Ukraine. What you need to know
More than half of the Armed Forces units will lose communication lines if the Starlink satellite Internet systems in Ukraine are turned off. The French operator Eutelsat and other companies are going to offer a replacement, but they are unlikely to be able to completely cover all the needs of the Ukrainian military. Izvestia investigated exactly why Starlink is beneficial to Kiev and how the shutdown will affect the course of hostilities.
What is Starlink?
• Starlink is a satellite network of the SpaceX space company, which belongs to the head of the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk. It is designed to provide broadband Internet access anywhere in the world. The Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported that the United States may disable this satellite Internet system in Ukraine. Moreover, this may cause a conflict between the United States and Poland, which pays for the use of 20,000 terminals by Kiev.
• One of the features of Starlink is that the terminal is constantly being upgraded. This system is very difficult to jam. No country in the world has an alternative. The product provides the most convenient way to provide broadband Internet access anywhere and in any conditions, even for moving objects.
• Starlink allows you to access the Internet where there is no mobile or cable connection, which is especially important in combat conditions. The terminal can be deployed in 10 minutes, even in a field or in the middle of a forest. Thanks to Starlink, the Ukrainian military can quickly transmit information, such as orders, photos or videos from drones, as well as the location of Russian troops. In addition, satellite Internet from SpaceX was used to control Ukrainian naval drones at a great distance.
How likely is a shutdown
• It is still unclear whether Starlink will be completely disabled. Against the background of a general review of US military assistance to Ukraine, this is quite possible. However, this is a commercial project, so the company may incur reputational risks and customer churn. Musk, of course, is not interested in this. However, Trump will have the last word.
How will the shutdown affect the APU
• Without Starlink, communication at the brigade, regimental, headquarters, and commander levels will not disappear. But it will be much more difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to work at remote positions of electronic intelligence, air defense, mobile firing groups, drone pilot crews, receive data from video surveillance systems, and use some repeaters.
• Musk denied reports of a possible shutdown. However, Maria Berlinskaya, the founder of the AFU Aerial Reconnaissance support center, believes that the billionaire can pass off the shutdown as a technical malfunction, suspending the terminals for several weeks. Currently, more than half of the Armed Forces units depend on Starlink. When disconnected, they will remain without communication lines. The Ukrainian army also recognizes that the lack of American intelligence data will significantly affect military operations. The UK may try to fill this gap, but it may not be enough.
• British military analyst Alexander Mercuris warned of catastrophic consequences for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event of a shutdown of the Starlink satellite Internet system. This decision could be a "crushing blow" to the Ukrainian military. In particular, disabling Starlink will improve the operation of electronic warfare systems used by Russia, which will make conventional radio communications for the Armed Forces almost impossible. The analyst stressed that the Ukrainian army will face "extreme difficulties" in coordinating the actions of its units and maintaining communication between them.
What can replace Starlink?
• Ukraine has already announced some compensatory measures from European countries. For example, France promises to supply thousands of terminals. Despite this, it will become much harder for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to coordinate efforts to counter the Russian army.
• There is a competitor system to Starlink called OneWeb, which was absorbed by Eutelsat. The combined company's total network includes up to 600 communication satellites. The shareholders are France and Britain. Eutelsat already has terminals in Ukraine, but most of them are not connected. The company is currently negotiating the possibility of supplying 40,000 terminals there. According to its representatives, it will take "a couple of months."
• Eutelsat services are significantly more expensive than Starlink tariffs. The cost of a European connection is $1,400 per month for unlimited access with a download speed of 50 Mbps. But unlimited Starlink plans are priced from $75 to $240 per month. The Swedish company Satcube is also expensive: the cheapest option is $110 for 1 GB per month, and the most expensive is $5,750 for 1,000 GB.
• The Western media believes that disabling Starlink will set Ukraine back 100 years, but this is an exaggeration. The functionality of the APU will be limited, but alternative communication systems will compensate for the losses to some extent.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
Dmitry Stefanovich, military expert of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security;
Associate Professor of the Department of Politics and Management at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Mikhail Mironyuk.
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