The expert predicted the ruble exchange rate in March

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, on February 28, the dollar was at around 87.7 rubles, the euro at 92 rubles, and the yuan at 11.9 rubles.

"The market, of course, knows more than others, buying rumors and selling facts. And so far, the market is assuming that we are really warming our relations in geopolitics, which is why the price of the US currency has adjusted so much," the expert noted.

According to him, the dollar looks rather weak, as does the DXY index, the dollar index against all other major currencies. The indicator has decreased in recent weeks due to the actions of the new US administration, the investment adviser said.

"If everything is quite clear from the technical side, then in terms of the external background, in addition to geopolitics, several other factors also matter. If we talk about other fundamental reasons for the recent growth of the ruble, then, of course, we need to pay attention to several factors, such as oil prices. Currently, our budget includes an oil price in the region of $70 per barrel with an average annual dollar exchange rate of 96 rubles. If the price of oil is trading around $75 per barrel and above, then the current quotation of the US currency is still quite comfortable," Abyasov explained.

He also recalled the decision of the Ministry of Finance to buy foreign currency and gold in slightly smaller volumes, which could support the ruble.

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"The sale of foreign exchange earnings will not have such a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate, as current requirements are quite low. The mandatory requirements for the sale of foreign exchange earnings in 2024 have been significantly adjusted — now the requirements for mandatory crediting of foreign currency received under foreign economic activity have been relaxed from 60% to 40%," the expert added.

In addition, he clarified that there is a possibility that many importers will keep a wait-and-see attitude for currency purchases.

"I think the dollar is technically oversold now, and in early March we will see a rebound to at least 91-92 rubles per dollar, followed by consolidation around 87-82 rubles per dollar. The US currency will be traded in this price range in March. Again, do not forget about the black and white swans. In our time full of surprises, we always need to consider several scenarios," Abyasov said.

Speaking about the exchange rate of the European currency, he noted that in this case the situation is about the same as with the dollar, only a little weaker.

"We see a movement in the euro exchange rate in the region of 87-85 rubles per euro. Locally, a rebound to 96 is possible. The situation in Europe as a whole seems less optimistic than in the case of the dollar. Therefore, geopolitics is also important here. In addition, high inflation in the Eurozone persists, and industrial production in Germany and France is stagnating. Therefore, the situation with the euro is even a little worse than with the dollar, especially along with energy prices, and they are not falling, but rising a little," the investment adviser drew attention.

Assessing the situation with the Chinese currency exchange rate, the expert also clarified that geopolitics will have an impact.

"A technical rebound in the yuan in the region of 12.5–13 rubles per yuan is also quite possible," concluded Abyasov.

Earlier, on February 26, the press service of the Central Bank of Russia reported that it is still difficult to assess how stable the strengthening of the ruble observed in recent weeks will be and how it will affect prices. However, the operational data indicates some a slowdown in price growth for imported goods, after the national currency moved to strengthen in December.