Difficult production: Damascus began to receive oil from the northeast of Syria again

The new authorities in Damascus began to receive oil from the Syrian Kurds. This is an important step, given that control over the fields in the northeastern regions of the Syrian Arab Republic has always been a trump card in the hands of the Kurdish commanders and their allies like USA. Obviously, Damascus and the Kurds have become one step closer to reaching an agreement. However, it's not that simple. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

New agreements

The Kurds in northeastern Syria have begun supplying the central government in Damascus with oil from local fields under their control. This was announced by the representative of the Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources of Syria, Ahmed al-Suleiman, reports Reuters.

According to him, the oil was extracted from fields in the provinces of Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor. Al-Suleiman also added that the deliveries are carried out in accordance with an amended version of the previous agreement between the ex-government of Bashar al-Assad and the Kurdish authorities.

So far, the parties have agreed on supplies for a period of three months. According to the agency, the deal involves the shipment to Damascus of 5,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the Rmeilan field in Hasakah and other fields in the province of Deir ez-Zor. The cost of the contract is not reported.

In 2010, a year before the Syrian civil war, the country exported 380,000 barrels of oil per day. Subsequently, control of the oil fields passed from one force to another. As a result, about 95% of Syria's oil resources ended up in the hands of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

However, both imports and exports were hampered by sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union.

In January, Washington granted the new Syrian authorities a six-month suspension from sanctions, thereby allowing some energy sales. The European Union also plans to suspend the sanctions imposed on Damascus.

Negotiations are currently underway between the new authorities, who seek to unite all Syrian regions, and the Kurdish administration in the northeast of the country. One of the key topics is oil trading.

According to Reuters sources, in the event of any possible agreement, the SDF will most likely have to give up its monopoly on oil and gas. The representative of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazlum Abdi, said earlier that the fighters were ready to transfer control of oil resources to the new authorities, but only on condition that revenues were fairly distributed among all provinces.

The American Question

These deposits are located in the northeastern regions, where the US military is also stationed. During his first term as president, Donald Trump planned to withdraw troops from Syria, but changed his mind at the end of 2019, citing the need to control oil.

Now, if the SDF and the new Syrian authorities can agree on regaining control of the northeastern territories, this may make the presence of American troops in Syria less justified. NBC sources report that the Pentagon is already considering options for reducing its contingent in the country. However, such scenarios were also worked out during the administration of Joseph Biden.

Recently, there have been signs of progress in the negotiations between the SDF and Damascus. One of the SDF commanders, Abu Omar al-Idlibi, said that the Kurdish units are ready to join the unified armed forces that are being created by the transitional government.

He also noted that foreign fighters like members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) may leave the ranks of the SDF. Turkey has long demanded the dissolution of the PKK, which it considers a terrorist organization.

In total, an agreement was reached between Damascus and the SDF on eight points. The participants agreed to resume the activities of government civilian and official institutions in the north and east of Syria to ensure the provision of basic services.

In addition, the parties confirmed "the importance of the territorial integrity of Syria" and that "the inclusion of local forces in the Syrian army will strengthen its ability to defend its homeland."

What experts think

Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Eastern Gate Telegram channel, emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia that although the statement about the agreement reached and the readiness of the Kurdish units to join the unified armed forces sounded quite loud, there is nothing new in it. In his opinion, the SDF has been engaged in political maneuvering for a long time.

— They stated that they were ready to join the Syrian army before the rule of Bashar al-Assad. However, the Kurds set a condition — they wanted to become a separate unit with a high degree of independence within the united Syrian army," the political scientist explained.

He added that there are a large number of problematic topics in the dialogue between the new Syrian authorities and the Syrian Democratic Forces. This is an opportunity to create a unified army and manage territories. A special issue concerns the exploitation of oil fields and the distribution of profits from the sale of resources.

— The degree of political maneuvering by the Kurds directly depends on Washington's position. When American support became less intense, the Kurds signaled to Damascus that they were ready to move closer," the expert said.

According to him, in case of stabilization of the situation, the negotiations between the Kurds and the official Syrian authorities immediately came to naught.

— Now the Kurds are in a more difficult situation. It is unclear what US President Donald Trump will do. He talked about plans to withdraw his troops from Syria during his first term as president. Such a development would be a very painful blow for the Kurds," the expert believes.

He believes that then the position of the Kurds will be more flexible, given that after the change of power in Damascus, they do not have much room for maneuver.

Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, Candidate of Political Sciences, holds a similar position. In an interview with Izvestia, he noted that the SDF has always been a predominantly pro-American formation.

— They were like that, even though the United States had abandoned its positions several times in the history of the Syrian campaign, leaving the Kurds to the Turks. These military formations have never been independent players. At the same time, the Turkish authorities consider them to be one of the main threats to the country's internal security," the political scientist explained.

The specialist emphasized the difficulty of joining the SDF to the unified Syrian army, given that there is no unified army in the country at all.

— The current American authorities are seeking to reduce their military presence in the SAR. After all, although by someone else's hands, the United States still achieved what they wanted. The regime of Bashar al—Assad has been overthrown, and the political vector of Syria has changed," the expert noted.

In his opinion, it would be logical for Washington to return troops from Syria to Iraq.

— In this case, there would be a reason to leave the SAR without political and reputational losses, with my head held high. This would help Trump score points in the region by demonstrating to the countries of the Middle East their willingness to engage in a constructive dialogue, the analyst believes.

The orientalist noted that during the previous American administration of Joseph Biden, the United States lost the opportunity to influence significant processes in the region.

— However, it is possible that the Americans will change their mind about leaving Syria. In general, this topic is not particularly relevant for them right now," Krylov concluded.