Experts have revealed the reasons for the strengthening of the ruble

The strengthening of the ruble was influenced by a number of factors, including geopolitics, increase in net sales of exporters, high key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR), experts told "Izvestia" on February 25.

Earlier in the day, it was reported that the dollar-ruble exchange rate on the international currency market Forex fell below 87 rubles for the first time since the beginning of September 2024.

"Geopolitics is not the only factor, also affecting the growth of net sales by exporters and the high key rate, which reduces the demand for foreign currency to expand imports and forces businesses to invest rubles at high interest. "Historically, if the current economic model is maintained, the ruble will devalue - it is beneficial to the country's budget, it is beneficial to the largest exporters," said Ivan Efanov, an analyst at Tsifra Broker.

According to his forecast, by the end of 2025, the dollar will be traded around Br105-106.

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In turn, stock market expert "BKS World of Investments" Michael Zeltser, speaking about the reasons for the strengthening of the natsalyuta, noted that the market at the beginning of the year there were too many speculative bets against the ruble, which eventually burned, which strengthened the collapse of foreign exchange rates. In addition, the Central Bank's increase in the limit of currency sales under the budget rule, the end of one tax period and exporters' preparation for the next, as well as the fact that imports at the beginning of the year were historically low and demand for foreign currency was reduced, also had an impact.

"Technically, rates could go even lower. The dollar at 85 [rubles], the euro below 90 [rubles], and the yuan at 11.6 [rubles] will not surprise at all now. The ruble is overheated, but in the moment it may be even more expensive, and only then will there be a rebound of oversold foreign currencies. For exporters, a higher exchange rate of foreign currencies is better. But for imports and in terms of inflation, a strong ruble is a blessing," added Seltzer.

According to the expert, if the ruble remains at the current levels for a longer time, inflation will quickly slow down, and the regulator may go for an accelerated monetary turnaround. He suggested that by the end of the year at current exchange rates the rate could even be 13%.

"If this optimistic scenario materializes, the rally in stocks and bonds that has already taken place will be just the beginning. Bonds and OFZ (federal loan bonds. - Ed.) still have growth potential - this is to the question of where to invest at the stage of strengthening the ruble. Buying currency is a question of goals. If it is speculative and under the rebound, it may still be lower - there is no need to hurry. But if you buy goods, services, for the same vacation, then such low rates are definitely much more profitable than they were just two months ago," concluded the expert.

Earlier, in early December 2024, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that there is no room for a serious weakening of the ruble. In his opinion, the dollar rate at the end of 2025 will be approximately 112-115 rubles.