Iran and the atom: US in no hurry to return to nuclear deal with Tehran
The new US administration has so far shown no interest in restoring the Iran nuclear deal, while the West as a whole seriously opposes normalization of relations with the Islamic Republic, Russian Ambassador to Tehran Alexei Dedov told Izvestia. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would prefer a deal rather than strikes to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. This was followed by media reports that Israel and the US have agreed on steps to be taken if the Islamic Republic refuses to sign the deal. The topic of restoring the nuclear deal was also discussed during a phone call between the Russian and American presidents on Feb. 12.
The West opposes normalization of relations with Iran
The future of the nuclear deal remains undecided. This is primarily due to the position of the United States.
- As for the Iran nuclear deal, I think there is still a lot of work to be done. Western countries are still very seriously opposed to the normalization of relations with Iran in this area and do not show any constructive approach," said Alexei Dedov. - Now we can see the dynamics of the U.S. attitude towards Iran, which, as we know, has hardened considerably, so it is difficult to predict anything about the prospects of this particular aspect.
The nuclear deal was signed in 2015 by Iran, Russia, the US, the UK, France, China and Germany. It envisioned the lifting of anti-Iran sanctions in exchange for Tehran limiting its nuclear program. However, in 2018, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, reimposing US sanctions on Tehran. In response, Iran began phasing out a number of its obligations under the agreement. First, it suspended the sale of excess enriched uranium and heavy water to other countries, and exceeded the stockpile ceiling of 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium.
On February 4, Trump signed an executive order to restore maximum U.S. pressure on Iran to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons. Washington, in particular, wants to achieve a reduction in Iranian oil exports. In February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Donald Trump at the White House, Israel and the United States reached a "full understanding" on the Iranian dossier. According to media reports, the steps to be taken if Iran refuses to sign the nuclear agreement - much stricter than the 2015 version - have been agreed upon.
On February 10, the American president said that stopping Tehran's nuclear program could be done by strikes or by signing the agreement. The American leader added that he would like to make a deal with the Islamic Republic without resorting to military means. At the same time, one of the main obstacles to the restoration of the deal remains the sanctions policy of the West. Washington is in no hurry to reduce pressure on Iran.
The Israel factor adds spice to the current situation. Several publications, including The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal, have reported, citing U.S. intelligence agencies, that the Jewish state is considering strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities this year. Israel allegedly intends to roll back Iran's progress on its nuclear program by military action.
- In essence, with regard to Iran, the American president used the classic political formula of carrot and stick, and in fact gave Tehran an ultimatum: either you agree to a deal on our terms, or we will torture you with harsh sanctions with a high probability of force," Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Center for the Study of Near and Middle Eastern Countries at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, believes that the JCPOA has lost its relevance because Iran is enriching uranium to levels "close to military levels" and is rapidly moving toward becoming a nuclear state. The JCPOA was designed for older generations of centrifuges for uranium enrichment, while Tehran already has centrifuges that produce more nuclear fuel with less equipment, the IAEA chief said.
Iran's position on negotiations with the US
Tehran rejects the White House's approach. Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who has called it a priority to establish equal engagement with the West, said in a televised speech on Feb. 10: "If the U.S. was sincere in negotiations, why did they impose sanctions on us?" The leader also said his country "will not succumb to foreign pressure."
The Islamic Republic's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi believes there is no basis for honest negotiations now. He said Tehran would be able to offer "practical guarantees" that it does not intend to build nuclear weapons - provided Washington gives up economic pressure and sanctions.
This tone of remarks was largely prompted by a statement by the republic's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
"We made a deal with the US, made many concessions to the other side. However, the Americans did not fulfill the terms of the agreement. The same person who is now in power (Trump. - "Izvestia") canceled the agreement. Before his arrival, those with whom the treaty was concluded did not fulfill it. It was aimed at lifting US sanctions, but they have not been lifted. There should be no negotiation with such a government. It is foolish, unwise and dishonest to negotiate," Khamenei said in a statement.
Moscow has consistently favored a return to the agreement and reiterated its readiness to assist Tehran. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with Iran's IRNA news agency that Russia is open to cooperation with Iran on issues related to its nuclear program. The situation around this issue was discussed by Russian and U.S. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump during a phone conversation on February 12.
According to CNN, Saudi Arabia has expressed its willingness to mediate between the Trump administration and Iran for a new agreement on Tehran's nuclear program. The kingdom fears that Tehran may accelerate the development of nuclear weapons after Iran's regional allies, which have served as a deterrent to Israel, have been weakened. Riyadh expects to use its close ties with Donald Trump to provide Iran with a diplomatic channel to the White House.
In late November 2024, talks between representatives of the Euro-troika (Britain, Germany and France) and Iran resumed in Geneva. Reuters, citing European diplomats, reported that the West wanted to pave the way for agreements before Trump returned to the US presidency. European countries were interested in renewing the agreement. Now it is even more urgent: for the EU, the lifting of sanctions on Iran will make it possible to compensate for the shortage of hydrocarbons, primarily oil, which has intensified with the imposition of anti-Russian sanctions. However, this does not mean that European countries are interested in normalizing relations with Tehran.
The Iranian authorities have repeatedly sent signals about the possibility of dialogue with the U.S. on the nuclear program. The country's leadership seeks to ease the sanctions pressure, which has significantly worsened the socio-economic situation in the country.
- The national currency has depreciated 20 times. If in January 2018 $1 on the black market cost 43 thousand rials, in January 2025 - 880 thousand. And on February 7, after Khamenei's speech against the negotiations, the value of the dollar, according to the Iranian media, jumped to 930 thousand, - said Vladimir Sazhin.
Iran has found itself in a position of zugzwang, the authorities are forced to choose between bad and worse. Choosing a deal with Trump's demands means losing face, forgetting the main ideological postulates and, in general, we can say, capitulation, the expert added. In this context, Iranian rhetoric can be seen as a tactical move aimed at getting guarantees from Trump that any potential agreement will not be canceled, as it happened in 2018.
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