Strike on uranium: Iran decides to protect itself from Israeli air strikes
Iran has launched a large-scale exercise to protect nuclear infrastructure from airstrikes. This was a response to the threat of attacks from Tel Aviv, which has promised to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Israel's concerns are shared in the US. In the outgoing Democratic administration, there are calls to use the weakening of Iran's air defense system to "permanently end Tehran's nuclear programs." Izvestia analyzed how possible it is to strike Iran.
Preparations in full swing
The air defense forces of the Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have started joint military exercises in Iran. At the first stage, they have worked out plans to protect the Natanz nuclear facility located in the center of Iran "from a range of air threats in conditions of possible use of electronic warfare means." This was reported by Mehr news agency.
In particular, the IRGC aerospace forces modeled the emergence of threats in the airspace and activated means of electronic warfare.
Earlier, Tehran reported that a number of new secret air defense systems, still "unknown to the enemy," had been installed near the country's strategically important facilities.
Since late October last year, Israel has been conducting Operation "Days of Repentance," which aims to destroy the air defense system, as well as missile and drone manufacturing facilities in Iran.
Tel Aviv's actions are believed to have weakened Iran's power and it is now unable to effectively defend its airspace. In particular, Israel has destroyed much of Syria's air defense system - more than 80 percent - which Tehran considered the initial stage of its defense against Israeli attacks, according to local military estimates.
In December, IDF's Halei IDF Army Radio reported that Israel might strike Iran's nuclear facilities after Syria. The country's various military branches are already coordinating between intelligence and defense agencies to "present options to the country's political leadership on how to deal with Tehran."
Trump's return
In addition, on January 20, the U.S. will have a new president who could authorize such an operation. Moreover, Donald Trump himself has called for it.
According to Axios, citing sources, the need to apply preventive measures is also discussed in the outgoing administration of Joseph Biden. The president was presented with options for forceful solutions to Iran's nuclear problem.
According to the sources, some high-ranking U.S. officials, including Jake Sullivan, the president's national security adviser, believe that due to recent events in the Middle East and Iran's strong weakening, the probability of retaliatory measures is reduced, and the chances of successfully striking the Islamic Republic are quite high.
On January 7, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, while receiving the credentials of the new British ambassador to Tehran, Hugo Shorter, said that Tehran was not going to use its nuclear skills militarily.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
He said the Islamic Republic declares the readiness of all sides to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and mutually fulfill their commitments. The head of state also added that the current Iranian authorities favor a diplomatic solution to international issues.
In 2018, then US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal between Tehran and the P5+1 (Russia, China, Britain, France, the United States and Germany) and imposed sanctions against Iran.
In 2020, Tehran announced that there would be no restrictions for it in the nuclear deal. The country's parliament decided to suspend the implementation of additional steps and the Additional Protocol provided for by the JCPOA.
Against this background, the IAEA published a report on the results of 2024, in which it reported that Iran had obtained a significant amount of uranium enriched to 60%. Thus, the amount of material accumulated by Tehran amounted to 182.3 kilograms. Uranium enrichment to the level of 90% is necessary for the production of nuclear weapons.
What experts think
Andrei Ontikov, orientalist, publicist, author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gates", noted in a conversation with Izvestia that a preventive strike against Iran cannot be ruled out.
- Besides, there will be a change in the White House, Donald Trump, who is known for his anti-Iranian, pro-Israeli sentiment, will come to power. Plus, the Republican once took the U.S. out of the nuclear deal, restored sanctions against Iran," the political scientist explained.
He reminded that in recent months the situation in the Middle East has seriously changed.
- This is the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria. Indeed, Iran is extremely weakened, it is not clear how long it will take to restore its former potential, and whether it will be able to restore it at all," the expert added.
View of Tehran, Iran
The expert also drew attention to the recent words of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who said that the Zangezur corridor will be opened no matter what, and Armenia should not prevent it.
- Yerevan is Tehran's key partner and an important pillar in the Transcaucasus. If Azerbaijan takes a new forceful action against Yerevan, closes the Zangezur corridor and thereby cuts off Armenia from direct land communication with Iran, it will be another strong blow to the positions of the Islamic Republic in general and in this case in the Transcaucasus region," the analyst believes.
The Orientalist is sure that the current situation for Tehran is not very pleasant - they intend to take advantage of its weakness. But whether it will lead to catastrophic consequences for the Islamic Republic, it is difficult to say now.
Danila Krylov, a researcher of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department at the Institute of International Scientific Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, PhD in Political Science, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that there are no official confirmations of the information about Israel's weakening of Iran's air defense system, as well as the destruction of drone and missile production facilities.
- There are neither refutations nor confirmations. No one else has since then tried to actively invade Iranian airspace and test whether there is actually an air defense hole or not," the expert said.
In his opinion, it may be a matter of destroying a "showy external part." According to old US maps, most of Iran's production is in the mountains in the northwest of the country. In the mountainous terrain, deep in the bowels, where it is necessary to destroy facilities with anything but intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, this does not seem realistic, the political scientist believes.
- And Israel is unlikely to possess nuclear weapons in sufficient numbers. The conflict will mostly be of a limited defensive nature," the analyst explained.
The Orientalist believes that now it is more about playing with muscles, political maneuvering. And judging by recent events, the Middle East case for Trump is much more important than the Ukrainian one, and the latter can even be sacrificed.
- At the same time, a paradoxical situation is emerging. On the one hand, Trump has always, including his last term, actively supported Israel and pressured Iran in every possible way," Krylov reminded. - On the other hand, perhaps Trump does not need an escalation with Iran in the first days after coming to power. But Biden can try to put the last sticks in the wheels and bury any plans to create a peaceful Middle East space for six months to a year. To do this, it is now necessary to simply carry out another escalation.
In his opinion, a preemptive strike by the Biden administration is extremely likely. Krylov added that in the current realities it is impossible to agree on any long-term compromises and solutions with Israel, either politically or militarily.
- Going to war with Israel, in principle, is now tantamount to going to war with the United States as well. In fact, there are many nuances. But I don't think that Iran is as weak as Western countries would like to imagine," the political scientist said.
He believes that one should not trust the IAEA report that Iran has received a significant amount of uranium enriched to 60%, and the amount of material accumulated by Tehran amounted to 182.3 kilograms.
- This organization has discredited itself to the fullest extent. It is not clear what data this information is based on, since after the collapse of the JCPOA, IAEA observers are not allowed to access Iranian nuclear facilities," the expert concluded.
