Time machines: foreign car brands may return to the Russian Federation
The potential warming of relations between Russia and the United States, as well as a possible next round of trade war between Washington and Beijing may radically change the Russian automobile market, according to its participants. At the same time, both automakers, dealers and experts note that during the year cars will only become more expensive, and the year itself will be difficult for the market. Details - in the material of "Izvestia".
Sometimes they come back
At the junction of 2025-2026 years, the Russian car market expects dramatic changes associated with the possible return of Japanese and South Korean car brands. Mikhail Bakhtiarov, co-founder of Major Auto dealership holding, stated this at the ForAuto 2025 conference. In his opinion, given the recent communication between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump and the potential warming of Russian-American relations, such a scenario is quite possible.
- Taking into account the news background, there are trends that may change the rules of the game in our market by the end of the year. One of them is Washington's direct instruction to Korea and Japan. After another six months, which will be spent on certification or adaptation of Kazakhstan OTTS, we will see the return of brands, which many customers are waiting for. In the IV quarter the situation on the market may change dramatically, and it will lead to change of filling of our showrooms, he said.
In addition, according to Mikhail Bakhtiarov, the possible intensification of the trade war between the U.S. and China may also affect the Russian automobile market. Brands that were previously not officially represented in Russia due to the risk of secondary sanctions may come to Russia, he noted.
- If Beijing realizes that the trade war has gone so far that they don't care - and this is quite possible in the coming months, judging by the rhetoric - then we may see on the market Chinese brands that were afraid to come to Russia and are quite serious players in the world and in China. These are BYD, Lixiang, Zeekr and others, - said the co-founder of the dealer holding Major Auto.
At the same time Mikhail Bakhtiarov is more skeptical about the possibility of return of European car brands to the Russian market. In his opinion, this process may be more complicated and long, since the Old World companies are bound by the EU sanctions imposed on our country.
New trends
The participants of the ForAuto 2025 conference noted that there are a number of new trends and currents in car sales, which will determine buyers' priorities this year and in the future.
According to Konstantin Boldyrev, head of B2C-credit business development at Avito Auto, a fundamentally new segment of consumers is forming in the market, for whom the traditional attributes of dealership centers are losing their value. These customers are oriented to modern ways of buying and intellectual approach to buying a car, he notes.
- Today's generation of shoppers, who grew up with smartphones, shows a clear rejection of traditional sales methods. They are repelled by the need for face-to-face interaction, haggling at dealerships. They want to receive all information automatically, through digital tools, chats, etc.," said Konstantin Boldyrev.
In addition, the monetary policy of the Central Bank is aimed at a fundamental change in the purchasing model of Russians for all types of durable goods, including cars, believes Vyacheslav Zubarev, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the TransTechService Group of Companies. According to him, this is evidenced by the repeated increase in the size of the key rate last year.
- The state is actually changing its approach to consumption. There is a tendency to move away from the former "credit" purchases to "accumulative" purchases without borrowed funds, - he noted.
At the same time, according to the executive director of the analytical agency "Avtostat" Sergei Udalov, at the end of last year, the share of cars purchased with the use of credit, amounted to 48%. In some months, primarily in spring, this figure reached 60%, he noted.
It will not be cheaper
At the end of last year in Russia was sold about 33 thousand cars, released in 2022, said the general director of "Avtostat" Sergei Tselikov. At the same time now dealers have accumulated a record number of cars since 2020. According to him, last year's stock will be actively sold out until about the middle of this year.
- Cars manufactured in 2025 will be definitely more expensive than last year's cars. This is due to the October and January increase in the utilization fee, as well as the high key rate. All this leads to the growth of "automobile inflation", - he believes. According to the expert, by the second half of the year new cars may rise in price by about 10%.
Valery Tarakanov, Director of Operations at Knewstar, believes that cars will become more expensive by about 10% this year. At the same time, the rise in price will affect imported models to a greater extent and will have a lesser impact on the products of domestic car plants, he said.
Dmitry Kostromin, Vice President for Sales and Marketing of AvtoVAZ, does not rule out the rise in car prices. Answering the question about the rise in prices of Lada models, he noted that "indexation within the framework of inflation" is possible.
Alexander Zubik, Director of Strategy, Planning and Product Management Department of "HAVAIL MOTOR Rus", believes that it will not be possible to avoid the growth of car prices this year. This is largely due to the fact that "the effect of the increase in the scrappage fee has not yet fully manifested itself".
The struggle of opposites
All experts agree that this year will be a difficult one for the Russian automobile market. They believe that it will be influenced by multidirectional factors.
Along with the high key rate, the ruble exchange rate will have a significant impact on it, says Roman Tulinov, head of the analytical department of Rosbank. The national currency is still subject to sharp fluctuations of the exchange rate depending on external factors, which noticeably affects the automobile market, he believes. According to the expert's forecast, if the general situation in the economy changes, then closer to the second half of the year the Central Bank of Russia may start to gradually reduce the key rate.
- The reduction of the "key", as a consequence, will lead to a decrease in deposit rates: people may start to spend more actively their previously stored funds, including the purchase of cars," he believes.
According to Alexander Zubik, about 1.6 million cars and LCV models will be sold in Russia this year. Among the factors contributing to maintaining the interest of Russians in cars, he calls pent-up demand, a large share (70%) of cars older than 10 years in the fleet, a significant volume of dealer stock, as well as a possible reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank in the second half of the year.
According to Mikhail Bakhtiarov's estimation, the potential volume of the Russian market at the moment is about 2 million cars per year. At the same time, various external and internal factors are pushing it to the level of 1 mln units. Taking this into account, sales of new cars in 2025 may amount to 1.5-1.6 million copies, he believes.
Other experts give more pessimistic forecasts. Thus, according to Valery Tarakanov, this year will be "quite volatile" and in general can be successful, and the market volume is possible at the level of 1.41-1.43 million units. Vyacheslav Zubarev and Dmitry Kostromin estimate new car sales even lower (approximately 1.3 million units). At the same time, the vice-president of AvtoVAZ is sure that this year the number of cars imported through alternative imports will be significantly reduced. In his opinion, their number will not exceed 50 thousand pieces, against about 200 thousand cars delivered to our country last year.
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