New imports: car imports to Russia fell sharply
New car deliveries to Russia halved in January amid overstocking of dealer warehouses and the introduction of new import restrictions. The number of cars imported through alternative channels has also decreased significantly, especially for popular Chinese models. The activity of buyers is also decreasing. Whether all this will lead to cheaper cars, "Izvestia" investigated.
A brook instead of a river
In January 2025, just over 5 thousand new passenger cars were imported into Russia under alternative schemes - such data is given by Sergey Tselikov, Director General of "Avtostat" agency.
"The full-flowing river of alternative imports, which replenished the Russian car market in 2023 and early 2024, is systematically turning into a drying up rivulet," he wrote in his Telegram channel.
Auto imports have declined significantly overall. In January, 31.9 thousand new cars were imported into Russia - more than twice less than the results of January (64.3 thousand units) and December 2024 (68 thousand units), said Avtostat. In fact, January imports have fallen to the volumes of January 2023, when the market was just beginning to recover.
German and Japanese are leading
If last month Geely cars were most actively imported, this month Haval has taken the lead. The most imported model for the second month is Omoda C5, which is not surprising: the first updated crossovers began to arrive at dealers only at the end of last year, and they simply did not have time to import a sufficient number of cars.
Geely brand cars have practically ceased to be imported into the country by alternative means. In addition, the leaders of unofficial imports have also changed - in January it was Toyota and BMW instead of Geely and Lixiang.
Half a million is enough
Avtostat considers the drop to be logical - before the increase of scrappage duty, cars were imported more than the market needed at that time.
- Now there is no point in importing cars when there are large runoffs," said Sergei Udalov, executive director of Avtostat, during an online broadcast of Avtostat Operativka. The agency estimated the volume of new car runoff at the beginning of the year at half a million units.
Only on the site auto.ru there are more than 150 thousand ads for sale of new cars of 2024 year of manufacture. Most of the announcements concern Geely, Chery and Haval models.
Imports of used cars also decreased in January, but slightly - by 2% to 19.4 thousand. Toyota cars were imported most of all, and the most popular model with used cars was Honda Freed.
Where are you importing from?
Most cars are imported from China, which accounted for 92%. At the same time, alternative deliveries via Belarus (2.4%), Kyrgyzstan (2.4%) and Kazakhstan (0.6%) have reduced to a minimum.
In April, they will seriously "tighten the screws" for importers who brought cars through the EAEU countries, having established the possibility of additional charging of duty, duties, excise taxes and other payments, if it turns out that the car was imported under the "gray" scheme. That is why these channels for supplying cars to Russia have become much less popular, experts believe.
- As long as these were schemes that allowed to save money, they were used, but now there is no point," said Igor Morzharetto, partner of Avtostat.
China has increased its share in the supply of used cars to 16.4% and almost caught up with South Korea (16.6%), taking the third place. More than half of used cars in January came from Japan - 53.2%.
Why imports are falling
There are several reasons for the decline in imports, experts say. First of all, it is a large number of cars imported before the increase in the scrappage fee, which is now in dealers' warehouses. According to different data, we are talking about 400-450 thousand units.
- It is quite likely that such a large stock of cars forced importers to reconsider the schedule and volumes of new deliveries. First we have to sell what we already have," says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of "Za Rulem".
In his opinion, the increase in the utilization fee has hit the models imported through alternative channels the hardest. Obviously, they have become more expensive, and therefore it has become less profitable to import them.
- As for parallel imports, the share of such cars on the market has significantly decreased - the government's efforts to gradually "squeeze" such cars imported through alternative channels out of the market are having an effect," Igor Morzharetto believes.
The decrease in the volume of new car deliveries is typical for January, Andrey Terlyukevich, General Director of AutoSpecCenter Group of Companies, told Izvestia. From the end of December to the middle of January the deliveries are traditionally minimal.
- In the future, the situation will depend on the production plans of brands and the volume of inventories of 2024 year of production, - he said.
What will happen to car prices
The dynamics of car sales is declining. Although the total volume in January exceeded that of January 2024, the market sagged by nearly 40% compared to December. Buyer interest continued to fall in February as well. Despite the overstocking, it is unlikely to expect price reductions, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.
- The existing cars will be sold sooner or later. And new batches of imported models will be delivered with the increased duty since January. Accordingly, they will be more expensive," says Igor Morzharetto.
There are discounts now, but they are usually random, said Maxim Kadakov.
- Everything is decided individually depending on the specific situation at a particular dealer, a particular model or even modification of the car, and the method of payment," he said.
Disguised reduction
Andrei Terlyukevich does not see prerequisites for a direct reduction in prices, but stabilization of prices at the level of December 2024 can already be called a veiled reduction, he believes.
- Preservation of brand support programs instead of logical and traditional price increase with the beginning of the new year itself stimulates sales. Dealers have more or less brought their warehouses to the level of current sales for December-January and further shipments are planned only taking into account the profitability of sales. In other words, we should not expect discounts on new shipments, - said Andrei Terlyukevich.
The market will determine how much the price will change, said Director General of GC "Avtodom" Andrei Olkhovsky.
- According to my assumptions, the market will be stable in terms of price, and if Chinese suppliers will not organize a competition among themselves, who will sell more, then after a while the market will calm down and dealers will be able to start earning money, - he said.
In turn, unofficial importers are looking for ways to make cars cheaper. Thus, one major supplier has opened a warehouse in Belarus, designed to store and supply cars to Russian dealer networks of Chinese, Korean and European brands, including Li Auto, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Toyota. This will optimize customs clearance costs and open up the possibility for dealer networks not to pay commercial scrappage duty, as the cars are released into free circulation directly to the end buyer.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
