Analyst predicted the dollar exchange rate in the coming months
In the coming months, the dollar will be traded within the range of Br102-107, Alina Poptsova, stock market analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, told "Izvestia" on January 20.
The Russian Central Bank set the U.S. currency rate at 102.4 rubles on January 18.
"In the perspective of the next few months, we expect fluctuations within 102-107 [rubles] per U.S. dollar, in the long term we allow weakening to 110-114 USD/RUB," - said Poptsova.
According to her, the exchange rate of the Russian national currency is influenced by the dynamics of the dollar, which has already shown strengthening amid the strengthening of pro-inflationary risks in the U.S. and fewer opportunities for the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates.
"Since the election, the DXY index has gained 5.73% and consolidated above the 109 points mark. Future dollar dynamics will depend on how actively the U.S. will impose trade duties against China, Canada and Mexico. According to recent Bloomberg reports, [U.S. President-elect Donald] Trump's team plans to gradually increase import tariffs by 2-5 percentage points each month instead of imposing broad restrictions overnight. If Trump is more selective and cautious in his trade policy, we may see a correction in the dollar, which, in turn, will reduce pressure on the ruble," the expert explained.
However, according to her, this scenario is most likely in the medium term (three to five months), while the DXY index may well rise above 110 points in the coming weeks, which will lead to a weakening of the Russian currency.
"In addition, important for the dynamics of the dollar may be the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, where Trump is expected to speak. In this context, the rhetoric on geopolitics, including the prospects for resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and sanctions policy, is important for the ruble," the analyst concluded.
Earlier, in early December 2024, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that there is no room for a serious weakening of the ruble. In his opinion, the dollar rate at the end of 2025 will be approximately 112-115 rubles. At the same time, he admitted that some weakening of the national currency is indeed present, but no surprises are expected: the rate will fluctuate depending on the situation.
