Not all of Trump's promises are worth believing. And here's why
On Monday, January 20, the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States Donald Trump takes place in Washington. In the run-up to his second term, he has made quite a few loud statements, in particular, about the imminent end of the conflict in Ukraine and the annexation of Greenland. How realistic are his plans and what we should really expect during his reign - in the material of "Izvestia".
The most frequent promises
- The new U.S. President Donald Trump among the promises that he intends to realize on the first day of his presidency, most often called the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. In second place is the closure of borders and mass deportation of illegal immigrants.
- Many of Trump's sweeping plans will require congressional support. Other promises seem to be "hyperbolized", which the future US president himself admitted (we told you more about what Trump's team will be like and what policies its members are planning here).
- In general, Trump likes to impress and feels entitled to raise issues that are important to the US. These include, for example, his recent announcement that the states will "correct the mistake" of 39th President Jimmy Carter and retake control of the Panama Canal, which has not only alarmed Panama, but all of Latin America. Trump has a penchant for simple solutions and sweeping statements that he intends to create a worldwide furor.
Changing timelines
- During the election campaign, Trump also made loud statements about the possibility of resolving the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours if he becomes the US president. In Moscow, as in Kiev, such promises were treated with skepticism. The Kremlin noted that "this was a certain kind of exaggeration."
- Trump often emphasizes that the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine would not have started if he, and not President Joe Biden, had been in the White House at the time. The Republican is aware of Russian President Vladimir Putin's willingness to engage in dialogue, but has ruled out contacts before his inauguration, which is scheduled for Jan. 20.
- Putin said at a press conference in late December 2024 that Russia was ready to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions, but on the basis of the Istanbul agreements and taking into account the realities on the ground. According to the draft treaty agreed in Istanbul in spring 2022 and published by the newspaper Welt Am Sonnag, Ukraine was obliged, among other things, to renounce membership in military alliances, including NATO.
- Kiev's NATO allies have also begun to consider various scenarios for negotiating a cessation of hostilities. From seeking a victory for Kiev, alliance members shifted to trying to achieve for Ukraine "the best position to repel a Russian offensive or negotiate a possible cease-fire. "
Changing positions
- In addition, Trump periodically changes his position to the exact opposite. For example, during his first term as president, he pushed to sell or ban TikTok in the US, but his stance softened after the latter played a prominent role in his campaign to return to the White House.
- His TikTok account now has more than 14 million followers. In December, he admitted that he had "warm feelings" for the social network.
- In the end, Trump said he would make a decision on the fate of the social network TikTok after analyzing the situation. He declined to answer specifically whether he would take any action to repeal the law banning the social network passed under current President Joe Biden.
Unrealistic goals
- Trump promises to "revive the greatness of America," the world's largest economy. However, the further economists analyze the plans of the new old American president, the more doubts they have that the initiatives he announced will help the U.S. get rich, revive industry and contain China's expansion.
- Among other things, he promises to raise duties on all imports, cut taxes, deport migrants and increase oil and gas production. All in the name of spurring economic growth and investment, creating jobs, reducing the trade deficit and lowering inflation.
- But duties and deportation run counter to the idea of a weak dollar because they will raise prices and, by extension, credit rates and the exchange rate. Deportation will undermine economic growth, and cutting taxes in such a situation means increasing the already huge budget deficit, the national debt, and the cost of servicing it.
- Increased oil and gas production in the context of depressed energy prices will put oil and gas companies on the verge of bankruptcy - they will stop drilling, reduce investment and production. With such a set of contradictory initiatives of Trump, it will be possible to make forecasts of the American economy for a year or two only after he moves to the White House at the end of January and moves from words to deeds.
Contradictory image
- Trump has repeatedly emphasized that during his past presidency, unlike his predecessors, he did not unleash a single military conflict. And he has repeatedly pointed out that the U.S. has spent some $7 trillion on Middle East wars, with negative results for the states. His skeptical attitude to Washington's involvement in the Ukrainian crisis stems from this.
- However, even before taking office, Trump managed to frighten the inhabitants of Greenland by announcing his intention to annex the island to the United States. Moreover, he did not rule out the possibility of military action to seize it. Former Prime Minister of the island Kuupik Kleist said that Trump "can not just take and buy the country or its inhabitants".
- However, after this high-profile statement, the Danish authorities sent personal letters to representatives of the Trump team, in which they expressed their readiness to discuss strengthening the security of Greenland and increasing the US military presence on the island. In this way, the Danish government wants to convince Trump that his security concerns can be addressed without annexing Greenland to the United States. In doing so, the Danish authorities want to avoid an open clash with the new US administration.
What to expect from Trump
- From the new presidential term of Trump is expected relative restraint and separate radical actions on the world stage. He belongs to the part of the American elite that does not share the views of liberal-globalists, who believe that America should fully devote itself to the establishment of the global neoliberal order. The new president believes that this has already led the US to spend too much and that the crisis in Ukraine has brought the world closer to World War III.
- In addition, he has a difficult relationship with the European liberal elite who dreamed of a Kamala Harris victory. Conversely, he has excellent relations with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, good relations with French opposition leader Marine Le Pen, and in the UK he sympathizes not with Prime Minister Starmer but with his opponent, the far-right Conservative Nigel Farage.
- Donald Trump's team has begun developing a sanctions strategy against Russia. This strategy will have to promote an agreement between Russia and Ukraine "in the coming months" and on the other hand, put pressure on Iran and Venezuela.
- Trump's strategy could have two main approaches that are being considered. If the new administration believes that the conflict in Ukraine is nearing an end, there could be some "goodwill gestures" to Russian oil producers. This would be possible if the U.S. believes it will help to broker a peace agreement. The second approach is to increase sanctions pressure in order to try to influence decision-making with their help. It is unclear which of these options Trump himself is leaning toward.
- The Kremlin has chosen a wait-and-see attitude. In particular, it noted that Trump made various statements during the election race, including about his peaceful aspirations, but sometimes, once in the Oval Office, his masters change their tone.
- In domestic policy, Trump, having support in Congress, will cut taxes on corporations, although he promised to cut taxes on everyone in general. Then he will work to support American industry. The United States will build a system of protectionism: increasing tariffs and duties. And not only China, but also the European Union will be hit.
- Trump made no secret of the fact that the main thing for him will be to support the American manufacturer. First of all, it concerns the industry, namely the automotive industry and energy.
In preparing the material Izvestia spoke with:
military expert retired colonel Andrei Koshkin;
American political scientist Malek Dudakov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
