Unforeseen States: Trump's arrival could intensify divisions in the EU
Donald Trump's return to the White House and his initiatives on Ukraine may cause a split within the EU. The Baltics and a number of southern European countries declare their readiness to continue supporting Kiev, but the majority of the EU will support the initiatives of the new US president. At the same time, the union will be able to provide only limited support to Ukraine without American assistance. The position of France, which is set for a long-term confrontation with Russia, will be important, experts interviewed by Izvestiya say. At the same time, the US leader may put pressure on the dissenting allies with the help of new trade duties and demands to raise military spending to 5% of GDP.
EU lacks unity on Ukraine strategy
Less than two weeks remain before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. Recent statements made by him and his team indicate that official Brussels and the authorities of some European countries will have to adapt to the new U.S. foreign policy course.
The main pain point remains, of course, the conflict in Ukraine. Both during his election campaign and after his election victory, Trump repeatedly spoke about the need to put an end to the confrontation between the parties as soon as possible. On December 24, the future U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said that ending the conflict would be "the number one national security priority".
According to him, Trump can resolve the situation "in a relatively short period of time." While the specific details of his plan are not yet known, Kellogg noted that the future president wants "a just and sustainable peace." At least something more lasting than the Minsk agreements. "In the past, we've seen a peace process tried between Russia and Ukraine. And it failed miserably. The president will not go that way," he told Fox Business.
Earlier, Trump's advisers published various outline versions of his peace plan. Thus, in early December, a five-point draft by Keith Kellogg and Frederick Fleitz was published. In particular, it is supposed to end the isolation of Russia, refuse to consider the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO for 10 years, and retain Russia's new territories. The document also talks about the gradual lifting of sanctions and normalization of relations with the United States in case of conclusion of a peace "acceptable to Ukraine".
Brussels prefers not to talk about a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Moreover, on December 19, at the summit of EU leaders, the head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas spoke out against premature peace talks on Ukraine, which, in her opinion, could turn out to be a "bad deal" for Kiev. As a result, the summit participants called for an urgent increase in arms supplies to Ukraine, primarily air defense equipment, shells and missiles.
At the same time, there is no unanimity among EU members regarding further strategy on Ukraine. For example, on December 22, at the summit in Lapland, Finland, Sweden, Italy and Greece agreed to support Ukraine for as long as necessary, including militarily. The European Union fears that possible peace talks that Trump is going to initiate may only strengthen the already existing split within the community. For example, in December, an unnamed EU source told the Spanish newspaper El Pais that with the start of diplomatic dialog on Ukraine, "voices in favor of restoring relations with Russia may emerge within the union."
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo meeting in the Kremlin
For example, Hungary openly favors a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The country's Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not afraid to call Putin a fair partner for Hungary. Moreover, Orban called the Russian leader in December and suggested that Moscow and Kiev conclude a Christmas truce and make a major prisoner exchange. The initiative, however, was rudely rejected by Kiev. On December 22, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo, who also has a relatively balanced position on Ukraine (compared to other EU countries), visited Moscow. Concluding the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council, Orbán emphasized that the union has "deep differences of opinion on what Europe's strategy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict should be."
Who in the EU will support Trump's initiatives
Despite the efforts of Hungary and Slovakia to peacefully resolve the situation in Ukraine, their weight in the Western community is small, so much will depend on the big countries. France and Germany will support US President Donald Trump's proposals, Vasily Klimov, a researcher at IMEMO RAS, tells Izvestia. At the same time, the parameters of the peace agreement are not yet clear, and Trump himself may change his position.
- " If France and Germany say they will support a peaceful settlement, the club of supporters of this option will gradually grow," he told Izvestia.
Of course, there will be states that will continue to follow the current course of unconditional support for Ukraine. However, even the most ardent supporters of Kiev from the Baltic states recognize that NATO is unable to fight Russia without the United States. Left without American assistance, the EU will be able to support Ukraine on its own only for a limited period of time, Vasyl Klimov believes.
- Europe is constantly, both at the national and supranational level, talking about the depletion of ammunition and the need to compensate for it by restarting the military-industrial complex. I think that without the United States, Europe will not be able to provide all the necessary capacities to support Ukraine," the expert emphasized.
In addition, for example, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni may dramatically change her foreign policy, given the similarity of her views with Trump's position on many issues and the negative attitude of part of the opposition and citizens to support Kiev.
What will be the relations between the U.S. and France
Separately, it is worthwhile to dwell on France. Recall that it was the first country visited by Donald Trump after his election victory. On December 7, the US president-elect flew to Paris on the occasion of the opening ceremony of the Cathedral of Our Lady of Paris, restored after the 2019 fire. In a meeting with Emmanuel Macron, he noted that France is a "friend and ally" of the United States and that he has always had "good relations" with the president of the Fifth Republic.
It should not be forgotten that by the end of President Trump's first term, relations between Washington and Paris had become noticeably more complicated amid disagreements on a range of issues. These include the US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, the imposition of duties on European steel, as well as Washington's recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel. Finally, in 2019, Trump called Macron's words about NATO's "brain death" insulting to the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.
However, if we talk about both politicians' views on US-European military cooperation, by and large there are no radical contradictions between Trump and Macron, says Alexei Chikhachev, a senior lecturer at the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University.
- Both Trump and Macron say that Europeans should invest much more in their own security and spend more on defense. When Macron talks about "strategic autonomy" from the United States, he is really just talking about becoming a more valuable and autonomous ally of Washington in Europe. Macron's thinking is that Europeans should go ahead with increased military spending not at Trump's behest, but voluntarily. So by and large, both Macron and Trump are coming at the same thing from different sides," he told Izvestia.
France is now taking a hawkish line toward Russia and is trying to take into its own hands and into the hands of the EU some of the burden of supporting Ukraine that used to fall on the Americans. In their strategic documents, Paris and other European capitals indicate that they are determined to confront Russia at least until the end of the current decade, Chikhachev said. However, if the U.S. and Russia reach an agreement, Paris will quickly orient itself and roll back the hard line. Others may follow, given the desire of a number of Central European countries to restore ties with Russia.
US-EU disagreement
At the same time, it appears that Trump intends to return to protectionist policies and again raise duties on products from the EU. "I told the European Union that it must make up for the huge deficit [in trade relations] with the US by significantly increasing purchases of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it will face full tariffs," Trump wrote on Dec. 20 on his Truth Social media page.
During his first term, the EU and the US were already engaged in a full-blown trade war. For example, in 2018, Trump imposed tariffs on €6.4 billion worth of steel and aluminum imports from the EU and other countries, explaining this on national security grounds. In response, Brussels imposed duties of 25% on motorcycles, orange juice and whiskey and 50% on shoes, some clothing and washing machines. These tariffs were suspended until March 2025 as part of a temporary deal with the administration of current U.S. President Joe Biden.
For Trump, the main thing is to realize the principle of "Make America Great Again", for this purpose it is necessary to strengthen the US at the expense of other countries, including allies, Vladimir Shapovalov, a political scientist, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, told Izvestia.
- US-EU relations will face serious challenges after Donald Trump takes office. Most European leaders actively supported Democrats in the US elections, opposing Trump," Shapovalov said.
Pressure on European countries will also be exerted on military spending, the political scientist notes. Reports have surfaced that Trump intends to demand that NATO countries increase this spending to 5%, although even the US itself only invests 3%. During his first term, Trump promoted the requirement for allies to raise defense spending to at least 2% of GDP, as agreed at the 2014 NATO summit in Newport. Even now, however, only 23 of the 32 NATO countries meet this requirement.
