An expert assessed the Central Bank's resumption of currency transactions under the budget rule

Starting from January 9, 2025, the Central Bank of Russia resumed regular operations within the framework of the budget rule in the domestic foreign exchange market. Nikolay Vavilov, a specialist of the Strategic Research Department of TR Company, assessed this resumption and told Izvestia about the consequences of such a decision of the regulator.

Vavilov noted that operations were suspended since November 28 last year in order to reduce the volatility of the dollar-ruble exchange rate. In addition, the day before the suspension, the dollar exchange rate on the over-the-counter market exceeded Br114.

According to the specialist, from January 15 to June 30, 2025, the adjustment to the estimated volume of operations of the Central Bank will amount to 8.86 billion rubles per day of additional sale of foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule.

"The above transaction volumes will have virtually no tangible impact on the ruble exchange rate, provided the current daily trading volumes are maintained. In case the trading volumes drop significantly, the Bank of Russia's daily sales may slightly contribute to the ruble's appreciation," Vavilov summarized.

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Last year, on December 27, economist Andrei Barkhota told Izvestia about the Central Bank's change in the mechanism for calculating the official exchange rates of currencies against the ruble. According to him, the addition of elements of exchange dynamics to the algorithm for calculating exchange rates will reduce the gap between the official rate of the Central Bank of Russia and the rate that is formed on the Forex market.