Seasonal reset: how 2024 ended for the real estate market
In 2024, the cost per square meter across the country grew rapidly, and several programs of preferential mortgages "collapsed", experts reminded. Developers had to adapt to the new market realities and falling demand, while market players faced staff shortages and the need to increase salaries to retain staff. Inaddition, there was an increase in prices for construction materials, logistics and maintenance of facilities. About what the real estate sector entered 2025 - in the material "Izvestia".
"Shaking" of the market
The main result of 2024 - the housing market once again adapted to another "new reality", said market experts. Thus, developers ended the year with sales volumes 18-20% less than in the record 2023, told "Izvestia" head of "Cian.Analytica" Alexei Popov.
- We forecast a similar decline, about 20%, in the secondary market," he said.
In 2024 there was an unprecedented increase in the key rate, recalled in the company "Ricci|Living real estate". In July, the Central Bank raised it to 18%, and in September - to 19%. In October, the Central Bank raised the key rate to 21% per annum - a record level. Since July 1, the large-scale program of preferential mortgages, which was launched in 2020, has ceased to operate, and the terms of family and IT mortgages have become stricter.
- All this led to the fact that the average market mortgage rate today is about 28.5%, - said the company. - It is these factors that have affected the volume of mortgage loans - in 2024 they decreased by 50% compared to 2023. There was an increase in the cost of project financing. Bridge loans for the purchase of land for construction are also tied to the level of the key rate.
According to M2 and Roskadastr, 2.8 million housing transactions were registered in the first 11 months of 2024. The largest number of them - more than 50% - is in the secondary non-mortgage market. Every fourth transaction is associated with the purchase of secondary housing with a mortgage.
- It should not be forgotten that the growth of this indicator increases deposit rates, which means that deposits attract a lot of attention of private investors - individuals, - said the commercial director of the developer "Siyaniye" Victor Timofeev. - But in the premium segment of housing we do observe a trend: Russians are still confident that real estate remains an attractive way to invest and save money.
Players of the Moscow market had to adjust to the new requirements of the capital's authorities, Tekta Group pointed out. In particular, after the introduction of a ban on the design of apartments popular among investors with an area of up to 27 square meters. m.
All this could not but affect the market indicators. Thus, over the year the volume of sold square meters decreased by almost a quarter. And the decrease occurred in mass and business segments - in premium segment sales, on the contrary, increased by 15.6%.
- The cost of premium square meter shows unprecedented growth - plus 28.6% for the year. Among the key factors of appreciation are repatriation of capital due to sanctions pressure and currency fluctuations, the search for reliable assets amid economic turbulence, as well as the emergence of favorable installment programs from developers and the entry of new liquid objects on the market, - said the company.
As for the business segment, despite the correction in demand, the cost per square meter continues to increase. Thus, as of December 2024 the indicator is at the level of 521.7 thousand rubles, which is more by 14.3% compared to December 2023.
Who managed to keep their positions
In the second half of the year, the demand was partially redistributed from new buildings to secondary and long-term rentals, said Alexei Popov.
- But its decline was below the expectations of most market participants and experts. There was no collapse of prices, - he said.- It is fair to talk about price stagnation, about correction in some locations, but so far it is happening on a scale noticeable only to analysts, not to ordinary sellers and buyers of real estate.
Alexey Zavgorodniy, General Director of M2 real estate ecosystem, called 2024 a really difficult year for the industry.
- Given the current restraints, we should expect the downward trend in the market to continue in 2025," he added. - According to our forecasts, the reduction in mortgage transactions may amount to 20-30% compared to 2024.
According to the expert, the non-mortgage market will be limited by the same reasons as in 2024, so a 10% decrease in this segment is possible. In addition, transactions in the primary market may be restrained by a possible ban on the provision of installments by developers.
- In fact, the family mortgage will remain the only driver of preferential programs," he said.
In 2024, many developers faced staff shortages and wage inflation, there was an increase in prices for building materials, logistics, maintenance and labor costs, which significantly increased the cost of construction, added in Ricci.
The outstripping growth of prices for new buildings in recent years and increasingly dense development of Moscow has led to the fact that people more often prefer a country house to an apartment, said the director of the company Ekaterina Lomteva.
According to the estimates of the housing development institute "Dom.RF", 53% of Russian families living within the Moscow Ring Road would like to move to their own house. Today there is an active rethinking of the importance of the individual housing construction sector.
From March 1, 2025, money for the construction of a private house will not be transferred directly to the contractor, but will be deposited in an escrow account - only 12% of Russians are aware of this today. According to analysts, after the introduction of escrow accounts on March 1, the number of those wishing to build their own homes will increase threefold. Even now, every fourth house is built with a mortgage, according to market participants.
The situation with the demand is confirmed by the data of the research M2 "Index of realtors' sentiments". Experts note that since the beginning of the year the activity in the segment of housing and communal housing has been growing, but after the spring rush the indicator began to decline and since September it is at a low level. Seasonality has a significant impact on demand in the segment, but in general, in 2024 the most favorable situation with the dynamics of demand was observed in the housing and communal housing segment.
Experts do not expect the price and rate indexation records to be repeated in 2025. According to Alexey Popov, their nominal growth is forecasted in new buildings, in short-term and long-term rent. And about zero figures on price dynamics combined with a decrease in some months are most likely in the secondary market, where owners will have to adjust more actively to the reduced demand.
