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- The link has broken down: the price gap between new buildings and secondary housing will shrink
The link has broken down: the price gap between new buildings and secondary housing will shrink
In 2025, the price gap in the real estate market between new housing and secondary housing is likely to narrow, predict analysts of Yandex Real Estate and some other aggregators. However, not all experts agree. For many, the main question now is whether the secondary market will take over the demand from new buildings. What is the problem of such equalization of prices and how problematic it will be to buy housing in the new year - in the material "Izvestia".
What is happening to prices in the housing market
The price gap between new buildings and secondary housing has been growing annually in Russia for the last five years. According to the Central Bank, this year it has already reached 57% in favor of new housing. According to "Yandex Real Estate" (YAN), the average price gap between apartments on the primary and secondary markets in Russian cities with millions of inhabitants in November amounted to 30%. Such dynamics was caused by the high demand for new housing on the part of buyers with borrowed funds who participated in preferential mortgage programs.
However, after the end of the program in mid-2024, the situation began to change.
- We predict that the gap will narrow due to the reduction of the average price per square meter in new buildings and stagnation of prices in the secondary market, - says Evgeny Belokurov, commercial director of "Yandex Nedvizhimosti".
Vladimir Shchekin, founder of Rodina Group, is also confident that the price gap between new buildings and secondary housing will continue to narrow. According to him, for the last six months the difference is already noticeable: the cost of secondary housing in Moscow has increased by 6%, while apartments in new buildings have fallen in price by 4.5%. This is due to the reduction of credit support. With high demand and favorable conditions, sellers increased prices. However, this growth is no longer so significant and the effect of the increase is almost exhausted, suggests Shchekin.
It is clear that when the key rate rises, mortgage rates rise, both in the primary and secondary market. But new buildings have an advantage, as developers lure more favorable terms of purchase - discounts, installments, explains the head of sales department UNIQ Development Valery Ruchy. In addition, some preferential programs, such as family mortgage, are still in effect, which also contributes to the growth of demand for apartments in new residential complexes. Therefore, there will be no dramatic reduction in the price gap between new housing and secondary housing in 2025, believes the interlocutor.
According to the "Yandex Real Estate", in the fall months in the cities with millions of residents has already recorded a certain trend. So, in October, in 12 out of 16 million-strong cities, the gap in the cost of a square meter in the primary and secondary market decreased or stagnated. And the price gap in the capitals was shrinking in September and October. As of the end of November in Moscow (taking into account all types of real estate) the difference in price between primary and secondary housing is 8% in favor of new buildings. In St. Petersburg primary housing is more expensive than secondary housing by 18%. By the way, in August these figures in the capitals reached 11% and 21% respectively.
According to "Avito Nedvizhimosti", in November 2024, the average cost per square meter in the primary housing market in Russia amounted to 165 thousand rubles, in the secondary market - 132.5 thousand rubles. The difference in the cost of a square meter between new buildings and ready housing is 20% (32.6 thousand). In terms of the average price of an object, the primary market is ahead of the secondary market by 11% (Br957.8 thousand) at the end of the month.
Yana Glazunova, VSN Group expert, adds that there are direct prerequisites for reducing the price gap between new buildings and the secondary market, but developers today cannot afford to sell new buildings at the cost of the secondary market. Assuming that this trend in 2025 will still begin to gain momentum, it is likely to be promoted by the obligation of developers associated with escrow, rather than their initiative, emphasizes the interlocutor.
- Buyers vote with their rubles, and they will choose secondary real estate simply because of its lower price, - admits Yana Glazunova. - Owners of secondary apartments will be able to discount their real estate, outbidding the cost of new buildings. At the same time, in a number of projects developers will be forced to compete with secondary real estate, however, it will not take mass character.
The market of new buildings: who buys, price dynamics
Even now, the interviewed experts observe that a slight increase in the cost of the segment of new buildings in some large cities is associated not with a real increase in the price of square meters, but with a dynamic change in the structure of supply. Lots of more expensive classes or apartments of small areas - studios and one-bedrooms - are getting into the exposition, which are always estimated more expensive on the basis of the cost per square meter. All this happens due to the adaptation of developers to new market conditions.
Along with this, there are new promotions, subsidized mortgage programs from developers, installments and other bonuses. Therefore, today the real final cost of each particular object may well be lower than it is on the market before the transaction. Such adjustment of developers' business models and reduction in the number of buyers with borrowed funds in the current market mortgage rates will eventually lead to a decrease in the average cost per square meter in new buildings in 2025, believe the surveyed realtors.
Today the basis of demand in the primary market are buyers who improve their living conditions. At the same time, many transactions are alternative, when people sell the existing real estate, and the difference is compensated either at the expense of their own funds or with the help of a mortgage.
- More than 60% of Russians after the sale of housing on the secondary market buy apartments in new buildings. Installments are gradually becoming the drivers of demand in the primary market - believes the managing director of primary real estate "Avito Real Estate" Dmitry Alekseev. - In some developers the share of sales in installments has already equaled the share of mortgage transactions.
Another trendy tool - trench mortgage, which allows you to reduce the monthly payment in the first months, while the object is still under construction. This option is beneficial for those who plan to sell their current property after the house is completed.
Given the continuing activity of buyers in the primary market and the growing cost of project financing for developers, Avito Nedvizhimosti and a number of other experts do not expect a significant decline in prices for primary housing.
How things are on the secondary market
"Yandex Nedvizhimost" notes in the secondary market a slight increase in the average cost per square meter in metropolitan areas in recent months. Although this dynamics exists in parallel with an increase in the average exposure period of ready apartments, in the medium term it is a factor that indicates a narrowing of the price gap.
Market participants explain that the secondary market is becoming interesting for buyers with cash who are ready to get into deals quickly. With high market mortgage rates in this segment, there are still people who buy apartments for personal use rather than for investment. Due to the demand from such buyers, analysts observe a slight increase in prices on the secondary market in Russia's major cities.
At the same time, there are no tangible sales on the secondary market and are not expected in the near future. Owners, who need to make a quick deal, are ready to offer discounts, which already reach 5% on average. However, these are only isolated cases that do not affect the broader market.
Moreover, it is becoming more and more profitable for many apartment owners in the current conditions to move to the long-term rental market, where they can earn money and wait for more suitable conditions for the sale of real estate.
At the moment, many interviewed experts do not see any opportunity for price growth in the secondary real estate segment. Buyers need to either secure the purchase of a micro-mortgage, which is often paid off early, or have a large amount of savings to cover the entire transaction, reason realtors. Therefore, in their opinion, there is no potential for sellers to increase prices for ready housing today, as this would reduce the already small share of potential buyers remaining in the market.
All these observations allow us to conclude that the price gap between new buildings and secondary housing in 2025 may well begin to narrow. In the meantime, it is at record levels of recent years, and some cooling of the market would be quite logical.
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