Europe is closing in on Syrian refugees. Parsing

After the resignation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, European countries are massively denying asylum to refugees from the Arab republic. Some governments are even preparing deportation programs. The UN and European charitable organizations are urging not to turn their backs on migrants. However, the EU is afraid of a new wave of migration crisis and is not ready to take risks. Why European countries have turned their backs on Syrians, who have always been welcomed, - in the material of "Izvestia".

What is going on in the EU

- The EU authorities began to close from Syrian refugees immediately after the resignation of Assad. At the moment, 10 European countries began to suspend decisions on more than 60 thousand applications of citizens of the ATS for asylum. The first of them was Germany, the leader in the number of Syrian migrants in Europe. According to the country's Interior Ministry, by October 2024, their number was about 1 million out of 1.3 million across Europe. Also, Denmark, Norway, Greece, Greece, Sweden, Finland, Great Britain, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy and Austria refused refugees from this Arab republic. The authorities of the latter announced the introduction of orderly repatriation and deportation for migrants who have received protection during the last five years. This will primarily affect criminals, those who live only on welfare or "do not want to adapt to the cultural values of Europe". Chancellor Olaf Scholz explained that those who regularly work in the country and are well integrated will not be affected by the deportation.

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- The expulsion of Syrian refugees may contradict the EU qualification directive. According to the document, refugee status can be terminated if the circumstances that originally justified it disappear. However, states must consider whether the change is so significant and not temporary that the refugee's fear of persecution is no longer considered justified. Meanwhile, the situation in Syria is not conducive to the safe return of refugees, the UN said. Security concerns (risk of civil war), poverty, lack of basic services and shelter were cited as reasons.

- Syrians themselves also do not want to return to their homeland and have taken a "wait-and-see attitude," Western media reported. According to some experts, the refugees want to wait for the moment when the situation in Syria stabilizes. The results of the "Arab Spring" in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia make many people think whether they should give up their usual life in Europe. At the same time, the Western press has also circulated a story about "happy Syrians" who dream of an imminent return to their homeland - a narrative that is in line with the authorities' policy.

Why Europe doesn't need Syrian refugees

- The EU fears a new wave of the migration crisis that rocked it back in 2015. Back then, Syria was fighting for Aleppo, and thousands of Syrians who were given protection left for Europe. Now the situation may repeat itself, and another wave of migrants who are counting on political asylum will pour into the EU. Among them, according to UN estimates, are about 1.5 million people who fled after the recent escalation of the conflict in northwestern Syria. We cannot rule out migration to Europe of former prisoners who have left or may leave Syrian prisons due to the weakened protection of penitentiary institutions - among others, IS fighters (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) are held there.

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- Domestic political considerations are the main reason why EU governments refuse to accept Syrian refugees, the expert community agrees. Local residents are dissatisfied with the neighborhood with Muslims who do not adopt the European way of life and values. According to a study published in October 2024 by the European Agency for Human Rights (FRA), nearly 47% of Muslims surveyed had experienced racism in the last five years to 2022. The agency noted that anti-Muslim incidents have continued to rise since then.

- Deporting some of the migrants would also help deny the right-wing pro-national parties an advantage over the Liberals, who have been losing popular support in recent years. "Right-wingers" are gaining momentum across Europe, especially in France, Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands (we have written extensively about the rise of right-wing parties and the fears of liberal governments in this regard here). Their agenda actively capitalizes on the public's fears of Muslim immigration by recalling terrorist attacks and their aftermath.

- Closing the borders to Syrian refugees, though not significantly, will help improve the economic situation of the EU in crisis. Most of the states that have stopped processing applications for migrants from Syria are facing financial problems due to their support for Ukraine and the consequences of COVID-19 (we have analyzed in detail how the financial crisis in European countries provokes the political crisis here). At the same time, the EU is forced to continue to accept Ukrainian migrants who contribute to its political image. Thus, since the beginning of the ETS, more than 4 million Ukrainians have found shelter in Europe, and their number only continues to grow. At the end of 2023, Syrian citizens constituted the second largest group of refugees in Germany after Ukrainians.

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Will they want to return to their homeland under the new government?

- It is possible that under pressure from the UN and human rights activists, the EU will not expel migrants to their home country, but will try to send them to another country. A similar situation occurred last year in the UK, when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak proposed to deny asylum to all foreigners who illegally entered the country and send them to Rwanda. However, human rights activists challenged the draft in court and it was declared illegal. In the case of Syrians, such an outcome is also possible.

- At the moment, there is no state that is ready to accept enough Syrian migrants to stabilize the situation in the EU. In 2015, Turkey assumed this role - 45% of Syrian refugees (out of 4 million) fled there. The rest went to Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon.

In preparation of materialIzvestiatalked to c:

• political scientist, Middle East expert Mais Kurbanov;
• Said Gafurov, associate professor of the Department of Regional Studies at Moscow State Linguistic University, orientalist.