Ruling decision: inauguration in Georgia will not be without protests
The only candidate for the post - Mikhail Kavelashvili - won the presidential election in Georgia. He was nominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party. The opposition did not propose its own candidate, and the incumbent president Salome Zurabishvili declared that she was not going to leave her post. Therefore, we should expect a new wave of protests before the inauguration ceremony to be held on December 29, experts believe. The situation is also being actively monitored in the West, which opposes the course of the ruling party. Nevertheless, there are also fears of pushing Georgia away with their pressure. What will be the relations between the Georgian parliament and the president and how will the situation in the republic develop - in the material of "Izvestia".
Who became the new president of Georgia
Mikhail Kavelashvili won the presidential election in Georgia. 224 members of the electoral college voted for him.
This year for the first time the head of state was elected not by the residents of the country, but by a panel of 300 delegates, including 150 members of parliament and 150 representatives of local authorities. Kavelashvili needed at least 200 votes to win in the first round. At the same time, the ruling party could count on 156 electors, the opposition - on 124 supporters, and about two dozen politicians are not members of any party.
Members of parliament vote to elect a new president in Tbilisi, Georgia
In case of a shortage of votes, a second round would have been required. Then it would have been enough to get just a majority of votes and Kavelashvili would have become president anyway. It is interesting to note that the Speaker of the Parliament Shalva Papuashvili stated that in case of failure of the first round the second round would be held on the same day.
Kavelavshili's candidacy was nominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party. The new president is a former soccer player: he played for Dinamo Tbilisi, with which he became Georgian champion six times. Later, as a member of Spartak-Alania in Vladikavkaz, he became the Russian champion. After that he played in Manchester City and a number of Swiss clubs.
Kavelashvili was elected to the Georgian parliament in 2016. He is known for his criticism of the West and the vector for the preservation of traditional values, although he supported the course of European integration. In 2022, Kavelashvili was one of the initiators of the adoption of the law on foreign agents.
Kavelashvili was the only candidate for the presidency.The Georgian opposition did not recognize the results of the past parliamentary elections. It did not nominate a presidential candidate and refused to vote, as it believes that the current composition of the parliament and, consequently, the electoral college are illegitimate. Representatives of the opposition recognize only the incumbent President Salome Zurabishvili, who is actually considered to be their formal leader.
President of Georgia Salome Zurabishvili
However, despite the non-recognition of the elections, Zurabishvili will have to leave her post, as Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced. Although the still incumbent president has previously stated that she is not going to leave her post voluntarily.
It is worth emphasizing that Georgia is a parliamentary republic. The president has no significant power powers, he performs mainly representative functions.
Nevertheless, with Kavelashvili coming to power, the relations between the parliament and the head of state will be equalized, says Georgian political scientist Petre Mamradze.
- The relations between the Parliament and the President will be quite harmonious now. Kavelavshili is not capable of betrayal, as Zurabishvili did," he told Izvestia.
Should we expect protests
The presidential election was accompanied by rallies outside the parliament building. The republic's State Security Service also warned about the aggravation of the situation earlier.
Protests have been going on in Georgia for more than a month. They began a few days after the October 26 parliamentary elections, which were won by the Georgian Dream. At that time, the opposition did not recognize the results of the vote, and several parties completely resigned their seats in parliament. However, in the first days after the elections the situation was calm until Salome Zurabishvili called on the residents of the republic to come out to rallies.
It is hard to call the protests massive, but the situation escalated several times. Thus, the first session of the parliament on November 25 was accompanied by actions that lasted more than a day. At that time, the legislative body even introduced a "yellow" security level.
Protesters in front of the Georgian Parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia
The situation significantly escalated after Tbilisi refused to negotiate accession to the European Union on November 28 - the ruling party postponed them until the end of 2028. For the same period Georgia refused "any budgetary grants from the European Union". After this decision, protests were held in various cities, and protesters in Tbilisi broke windows in the parliament building and threw fireworks at it, after which a fire broke out.
Following the results of the presidential election, Irakli Kobakhidze said that the attempt to organize a Maidan in Georgia had failed.
Protests in the republic will probably continue, but they are unlikely to go beyond controlled limits, experts believe.
- One-off protests may happen, they will escalate under certain dates, for example, December 29, when the inauguration of the president will take place, - said Petre Mamradze.
It is also possible that protests will take place on December 16, when EU foreign ministers will discuss the possibility of imposing new sanctions against Georgia.
Tbilisi's future course and the West's reaction
Georgian Dream's relations with the West are at their lowest point in several years. The West, and consequently the opposition, accuse the ruling party of cooling relations with the EU and of a "pro-Russian course." In particular, the ruling party earlier initiated the adoption of the law "On Transparency of Foreign Influence". It was also the party that initiated the law on banning LGBT propaganda in Georgia (the movement is recognized as extremist in Russia).
The "Dream" explained that after the start of the SWO in Ukraine, calls from the West to open a second front in Georgia to confront Russia and to impose sanctions against Moscow began to appear. At the same time, the Russian capital is still Tbilisi's most important trade and economic partner, so such a step would lead to dire consequences for Georgia. On the eve of the elections, Dream also emphasized that if it stays in power, peace is guaranteed in the country, while if the opposition comes in, it is likely to be dragged into the conflict under pressure from the West.
At the same time, the West is actively monitoring all electoral processes in Georgia. On the eve of the December 12 presidential elections a delegation of the European Parliament visited the republic. The visit took place after Tbilisi made it clear that it was suspending the process of negotiations on accession to the EU. However, members of the delegation met with Zurabishvili and called for new parliamentary elections in the republic. Prior to that, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling for new elections in Georgia, which a priori can be considered as interference in the internal affairs of another state.
Also on December 11, French President Emmanuel Macron in a telephone conversation with the founder of the Georgian Dream expressed regret that the country has deviated from the European trajectory. In addition, Macron released a video message in which he called on all Georgian political forces to dialog to "get out of the situation."
The EU and the US called for an investigation into irregularities during the parliamentary elections, despite the fact that the OSCE observation mission recognized the vote as legitimate. On November 30, Washington suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia.
- Despite the fact that some countries have deteriorated relations with Tbilisi, we can observe an intensification of contacts with the new Georgian authorities. For example, immediately after the parliamentary elections, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Tbilisi, and there was also contact between the Georgian and Hungarian Foreign Ministries. Macron's phone call to Ivanishvili shows that the West is still in contact with the new government," said Nikolai Silaev, a senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Issues at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
The West is still afraid of pushing Georgia away altogether. And these fears will prevent Brussels from adopting any new sanctions against Tbilisi, added the expert.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze
Tbilisi's position on foreign policy remains the same, but not at the expense of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, Irakli Kobakhidze said. Georgia is ready to do everything to become a member of the European Union, but the country does not intend to cross "red lines" for this purpose, he emphasized.
Petre Mamradze did not rule out that economic, cultural and humanitarian relations with Moscow may intensify in the future in the conditions of united position of the Georgian Parliament and the President. However, it is still too early to talk about resumption of diplomatic contacts between our countries, the expert summarized.
