- Статьи
- Economy
- Neither to give nor take: the average size of consumer loans fell to Br132.4 thousand
Neither to give nor take: the average size of consumer loans fell to Br132.4 thousand
According to the results of November, the average check of consumer loans decreased once again - to 132.4 thousand rubles, which is 13.4% less compared to October, according to the analysts of "Scoring Bureau". How the reduction of the loan size affects the economy and whether banks need to stimulate consumer lending today - in the article "Izvestia".
Central Bank rate and its impact on loans
The volume of consumer loans began to decline in July amid the decisions of the Bank of Russia to increase the key rate. Today it is 21%, and by the end of December it is not excluded further growth of the rate.
Izvestia asked the Ministry of Economic Development and the Bank of Russia to comment on the situation, but did not receive a reply. The Ministry of Finance recommended to address the Central Bank on this issue.
Throughout the past year, the Bank of Russia has been purposefully tightening the rules for approving and issuing consumer loans. In July, macroprudential limits (MPL) were set for certain types of consumer loans. In September, new surcharges to risk ratios for unsecured consumer loans were established in order to accumulate macroprudential capital reserves and increase banks' resilience in case of losses. And in October, new MPL values were introduced, especially in relation to borrowers with a leverage ratio in the range of 50-80%.
In 2024, the Bank of Russia's policy became even tougher. For example, from September 1, the premiums to risk ratios for loans not secured by collateral were raised. The new rules also apply to consumers with relatively low debt load.
And from November 1, premiums on non-purpose loans secured by a car were raised, as this method of contract execution has become a kind of loophole for banks and their clients.
The decrease in the average size of consumer loans is a direct effect of the regulator's macroprudential limits, the main parameter of which is the maximum debt load of the borrower (LLB), according to Dmitry Gritskevich, manager for the analysis of banking and financial markets of PSB.
- The principle is that credit organizations limit the size of approved loans to meet the limit, and the debt load of the borrower should not exceed the limits, - explains the expert.
In his opinion, this measure in general allows to cool down the consumer credit market and limit the growth of debt burden of citizens, as well as to ensure the stability and sustainability of the financial system in the country.
Between two fires
Daniil Petukhov, associate professor of the National Economy Department of the Presidential Academy, said that the drop in the average size of consumer loans is a reflection of the processes taking place in the economy.
- Borrowers' risks are increasing, as well as banks'. The Central Bank recommends credit organizations to reduce them, and banks follow the recommendations. On the other hand, at the current rate, very few people can afford to take a loan at all, especially a large one," says the expert.
Thus, banks are balancing between the desire to stimulate lending and the risks that are growing.
- It is an endless search for an optimum. In periods of economic growth, they go into increasing lending and profitability. In times of crisis - to increase liquidity, - says the expert.
However, despite the attempts of the Bank of Russia to cool down the demand for loans, according to the NBKI, the market remains active due to the growth of incomes of citizens. As a consequence, the debt load indicator - the parameter on which the scoring system of banks is oriented - is also decreasing.
Mikhail Polukhin, director of the group of ratings of financial institutions ACRA, predicts that further reduction in the average size of loans will be due to macroprudential restrictions, tightening risk policies of banks and the high cost of loan funds.
- These are the reasons why the pace of portfolio growth by banks is decreasing. These factors do not allow to maintain active issuance, despite the interest of banks in the development of high-yield retail segment and potential demand for credit funds from the population, - he says.
According to Yulia Makarenko, deputy director of the Banking Institute for Development, these Central Bank measures sometimes act in the opposite way: they prevent successful repayment of loans.
- Russian citizens have already gotten used to the mechanism of debt restructuring, when a client asks to revise the rate and other terms of the loan some time after the conclusion of the contract. Thanks to these actions, many banks successfully repay their funds, albeit with small losses (less costs for the sale of debt or for the work of their own repayment service), - she says.
As the financier emphasized, the debt load indicator also does not always clearly clarify the picture. Much more important is not the amount of debt and not the debt load, but how the borrower can service the loan.
- Thus, a part of wealthy people are cut off from credit as a financial instrument," says the interlocutor of the publication.
How did the abolition of preferential mortgage
On the market of unsecured loans in no small measure affected the cancellation of the program of preferential mortgage from the second half of 2024, believes the managing partner of the analytical agency "VMT Consult" Ekaterina Kosareva.
- According to the Central Bank, in 2023, 6% of customers who took a mortgage, took out a consumer loan - to pay the down payment. Partly this risky decision is explained by the desire to be in time for a preferential program (in April - June there was a rush for primary housing), partly - the desire to lock in a price on the growing real estate market, - explained the expert.
According to her, these 6% of borrowers were reflected in the statistics, as the amounts of their consumer loans were measured in millions of rubles. At the same time, the statistics do not reflect the relatives of young couples who took out loans on themselves, their share is difficult to calculate, says the analyst.
She also explains the decrease in the average size of the loan by the decline in the real purchasing power of the population.
- Russians' incomes are growing as employers hold on to their employees. However, inflation reduces the real purchasing power of citizens, which, in turn, limits the demand for large loans due to difficulties with its servicing," Kosareva explains.
