An expert predicted a decline in prices for secondary housing in Russia

Against the backdrop of falling demand, secondary housing is expected to cool down and prices will fall. This trend will become more noticeable in 2025. This was reported to "Izvestia" on November 26 by Oleg Repchenko, head of the analytical center "Real Estate Market Indicators IRN.RU".

"In the medium term, the housing market is likely to cool down and prices will decline. This trend should become more noticeable next year. Prices - high, mortgage - expensive, demand in the secondary market is now inactive, sales are much lower than last year. In October, for example, on the Moscow secondary market, according to the data of the capital's Rosreestr, 20% fewer transactions were registered than in the same month last year. In September 2024, the decrease in comparison with September last year was even more significant - by almost 33%, so that the decline in prices by 10-15% in the medium term is quite realistic, "- he said.

The expert noted that in 2024 mortgage rates have been growing throughout the year, reaching today the mark of 28-29% per annum (this is the minimum level of rates on market mortgages at major banks). As a result, today for an apartment worth Br10 million with a down payment of 30% for 20 years at a rate of 28% will have to pay about Br164 thousand per month, and the overpayment for the entire term will exceed Br30 million.

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He pointed out that 10 million for Moscow, for example, is the budget of a studio. Today, market loans for the purchase of housing are unaffordable for the vast majority of apartment buyers. According to the results of the research of the center "Real Estate Market Indicators IRN.RU", at current market rates only 5% of potential apartment buyers are ready to take out a mortgage, and 55% will postpone the purchase until better times.

Speaking about the options for buying apartments in addition to mortgage, Repchenko specified that for purchase in the primary market developers also offer their own mortgage programs, but they involve an increase in the cost of housing.

"Installment payments are usually provided by developers for a short period of time, mostly until the house is commissioned. Accordingly, monthly or quarterly payments, depending on the conditions, will be quite large. There are already proposals with installments for five years, that is, and after the commissioning of the house, but it is still much less than the mortgage terms of 15-20 years. That is, this option can be hypothetically considered, for example, in the case if the purchase of a new apartment is planned to pay for the funds from the sale of other real estate. "Stretch" payments for a long period of time, thereby reducing their size to the minimum possible, in the case of installments will not work," he added.

Earlier in the day "Izvestia" reported that the average cost of a mortgage loan passed the mark of 30% in the top 10 market participants. This was a reaction to the record increase in the key rate (up to 21%) in October and the expectation of further tightening of the Central Bank's policy in December. Now the monthly payment for housing in large cities easily reaches 150-300 thousand rubles.