Water proposal: The EU may abandon the idea of a military mission in the Black Sea

There is no consensus in the European Union on sending a military mission to the Black Sea, the European Parliament (EP) told Izvestia. Earlier, the EP adopted a resolution calling on EU countries to consider the possibility of deploying an operation to protect commercial vessels. However, sending warships to the Black Sea creates a high risk of accidental incidents and direct escalation with Russia. Experts emphasize that such a step requires the consent of Turkey, which controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, but Ankara is unlikely to do this.

EU Mission in the Black Sea

The unwillingness of a number of states to go into direct conflict with Russia does not allow the EU countries to develop a unified position on the creation of a naval mission in the Black Sea. This was stated to Izvestia by Thierry Mariani, a member of the European Parliament and a member of the Patriots for Europe faction.

"Of course [there is no consensus], because there are countries that understand how dangerous this is,— the parliamentarian stressed.

On October 22, the European Parliament adopted a resolution proposing to launch an EU naval operation in the Black Sea, and also called on NATO to work on the Black Sea Sentry initiative. There was a standard reason for this: European deputies accused Russia of attacking civilian vessels off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria. Under the pretext of protecting trade routes, they proposed to expand the military presence in the region, strengthen intelligence, more actively identify drones and monitor the underwater infrastructure.

432 deputies voted for the document. 52 voted against, 88 abstained. A significant part of the Patriots for Europe faction did not support the initiative, explaining their position by their unwillingness to involve the EU in a direct naval conflict with Russia.

— This idea is as stupid as sending ground troops to Ukraine. — said Thierry Mariani. — We are being offered to ensure the security of trade by sending warships of European countries under the command of NATO to a zone where the two sides are already opposing each other. This is nothing more than an ideal recipe for a major incident and escalation of the conflict.

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Deputies from the Europe of Sovereign Nations faction voted against the resolution almost unanimously, with the exception of one parliamentarian, Petras Grazhulis from Lithuania. In an interview with Izvestia, MEP Ivan David told Izvestia that the proposed measures could potentially lead to an escalation of the conflict in the Black Sea, even as a result of an accidental incident.

— It remains to be seen to what extent the EU member states will agree to take concrete measures in the current political environment. The European Commission cannot force states to act, as they retain the right of veto in matters of foreign policy and the military sphere. At the same time, individual countries can independently implement various measures," he said.

However, the European Parliament's resolution, which is only advisory in nature, was not only not publicly supported by European leaders, but also, in fact, ignored. There are physically few countries in the EU capable of sending warships to the Black Sea, explains Thierry Mariani.

In fact, the only one who reacted to the document was Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev. The fact is that the European parliamentarians also criticized the Bulgarian authorities "for Sofia's weak reaction towards Russia" due to drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea. Radev called unacceptable the actions of deputies "indicating which sovereign decisions the Bulgarian government should make," and considered the resolution itself untenable and "without legal value."

By the way, Iliyana Yotova, who advocates that Sofia become a diplomatic channel for Europe's dialogue with Russia, won the recent presidential elections in Bulgaria. Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that the EU has the opportunity to force the Bulgarian authorities to take the necessary measures for Brussels, for example, by reducing financial subsidies. However, there is apparently no real request for the creation of a naval mission in the Black Sea yet. Now Bulgaria is only trying to achieve an expansion of financial support. According to the portal Rapporteur, Bulgaria has requested an additional €2 billion from the EU to combat threats in the Black Sea.

Turkey's role

In October, the head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, also called on the EU to deploy an operation in the Black Sea "to protect commercial shipping." But the main obstacle here is Turkey. According to the 1936 Montreux Convention, Ankara has been blocking the passage of any warships from non-Black Sea states through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits since the very beginning of the conflict, urging even NATO forces not to send their fleet there. Turkey does not intend to allow the expansion of the military presence of non-Black Sea countries in the region, the pro-government newspaper Yeni Şafak wrote in late October, citing sources.

Turkey is not going to spoil relations with Russia, says German political analyst Alexander Rahr. For her, the Black Sea is a region that is historically divided between her and Russia. The Turks do not want to see other players, especially Western military equipment, at their side, the analyst emphasizes. Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, believes that it would be extremely difficult for the EU to reach an agreement with Turkey, as Ankara may put forward a list of demands to Brussels that the European Union is unlikely to agree to.

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Meanwhile, Turkey is making independent efforts to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea. On October 31, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in Istanbul and stressed that any attacks on civilian vessels were unacceptable. The fact is that attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on civilian infrastructure and civilian ships in the region have recently become more frequent. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov also noted on October 1 that the Black Sea is now unsafe for navigation due to Kiev's terrorist activity.

Earlier, Turkey proposed to Moscow and Kiev to create a mechanism to prevent such attacks. "Palliative" measures will not solve the Ukrainian conflict, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said earlier. Moscow emphasizes that the Black Sea initiative and other ideas for stopping strikes, including on the line of contact, did not work due to the lack of negotiability of Ukraine and Western countries.

"As far as I know, we are not considering the possibility of concluding any agreements that would somehow resemble the Black Sea initiative that existed before and ended ingloriously, since it was shamefully not implemented in terms of Russia," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.

The Russian Federation withdrew from the grain deal in 2023. The agreement signed in July 2022 between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations allowed Kiev to export grain through its ports and at the same time was supposed to simplify the export of Russian food and fertilizers. However, the West has not fulfilled the conditions for unblocking Russian agricultural exports. In addition, Ukraine, under the guise of a deal, tried to use the Black Sea for military purposes.