I switched to points: the Moscow Exchange index may rise to 2700 with successful negotiations

By the end of 2026, the Moscow Exchange index may gain a foothold at 2,700 points, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. During trading on October 27, it exceeded 2,500 points for the first time since June. The increase is attributed to positive geopolitical news and expectations for the resumption of trilateral talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine in November. Even the Central Bank's decision to keep the key rate at 14% for the second time in a row and tighten the signal regarding further monetary policy did not stop the rise. Nevertheless, the current market growth is largely speculative and driven by investors' expectations. For further steady growth, objective prerequisites are needed — progress in negotiations and a slowdown in inflation. Under what conditions growth can be replaced by a correction — in the material of Izvestia.

Why is the market growing despite the high rate

On October 27, the Moscow Exchange index exceeded 2,500 points for the first time in June this year. Analysts assume that the rise of the Russian stock market will continue in November. The main condition remains the development of negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin discussed the situation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Garstere. This has already pushed the stock up. While maintaining a positive news background, experts expect that the index will be able to gain a foothold at 2,700 points by the end of 2026.

Investors expect that improving relations will allow Russian companies to simplify exports, settlements with foreign partners, and transportation of raw materials. Against this background, the prospects for negotiations turned out to be more important than a tough signal from the Bank of Russia, analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe.

Keeping the key rate at 14% did not come as a surprise to the market, while geopolitical optimism pushed investors to buy cheaper securities. Additional support to the market was provided by high oil prices, which allow oil and gas companies to maintain revenues, explained Roman Andreev, Managing Director for Investment Ratings of Expert RA shares. According to Natalia Malykh, head of Finam's stock analysis department, these factors still outweigh the negative impact of tight monetary policy and worsening expectations regarding the key rate in 2027.

The market takes into account possible changes in advance, so quotes began to rise even before the concrete results of the negotiations appeared, said Dmitry Tselishchev, Managing Director of Rikom-Trust. According to him, the dynamics are also influenced by the interest of large investors in cheaper stocks.

An additional incentive to continue the upward trend may be to overcome the 2,500-point mark itself: this level psychologically attracts buyers, according to financial advisor and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin.

Which securities benefit from growth

First of all, oil and gas companies and representatives of the transport sector benefit from the combination of expensive oil and expectations of sanctions relief, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Global.

At the main session on October 26, ordinary shares of Surgutneftegaz increased by 5.5%, Sovcomflot securities — by 5%, NLMK — by 3.3%, Denis Astafyev, the founder of SharesPro, cited the data. At the same time, the overall positive dynamics does not guarantee the growth of all companies. The results of a particular business may outweigh the impact of the news background: for example, PhosAgro shares fell in price on the same day after the publication of the financial statements, the expert added.

Against the background of geopolitical news, securities of companies whose quotes are sensitive to changes in investors' attitude to risk may also be in high demand. In particular, shares of Ozon, Gazprom, Alrosa and Rosneft may move more actively than the market, Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments, added. However, the dynamics can be unstable: if expectations of a de-escalation of the conflict weaken, investors can quickly exit the expensive securities and lock in profits.

When growth may end

Nevertheless, the current upswing cannot be considered the beginning of a steady upward trend. Quotes are growing mainly based on expectations, which have yet to be confirmed by real agreements, Vladimir Chernov believes. For continued growth, the Russian market needs progress in negotiations, real easing of the sanctions regime and a slowdown in inflation, which will allow the Bank of Russia to ease monetary policy.

Natalia Malykh also sees what is happening more as speculative growth against the background of geopolitical optimism. If negotiations drag on or are in danger of collapse, investors may start taking profits. Additional risks will remain changes in the external background and the regulator's decisions, Roman Andreev agreed.

The high key is still a serious limitation for the market, explained Denis Astafyev, the founder of SharesPro. Deposits and bonds remain attractive at this rate level, so if hopes for an improvement in the geopolitical situation weaken, investors can re-direct funds to more conservative instruments.

If the Moscow Exchange index fails to gain a foothold above the level of 2500-2550 points and no new positive news appears, a correction may begin in the coming trading sessions, Vladimir Chernov believes. According to him, if the geopolitical situation worsens, oil prices decrease or inflation accelerates, the index may drop to 2,300-2,400 points. Denis Astafyev also warned of the risk of a decline to 2,300-2,450 points if negotiations are postponed and expectations of monetary policy easing worsen.

In a favorable scenario, the index, on the contrary, is able to continue to grow. Vladimir Chernov expects the indicator to reach 2,600-2,800 points by the end of the year, and 2,700—2,900 points by the end of the first quarter of 2027, if negotiations progress and inflation slows down. Denis Astafyev estimates the possible range for December at 2500-2800 points, and at the end of the first quarter — at 2600-3000 points. Dmitry Tselishchev expects the index to rise to 3,000 points in the event of further de-escalation.

The November negotiation process remains the closest benchmark for the market. If it brings concrete results, the stock's growth will continue. However, without real progress, the current upswing risks being short-term: investors have already partially incorporated the possibility of dialogue into the quotes, and new statements alone may not be enough.