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- Serb and young: how the victory of the "students" put Belgrade in front of a choice between Russia and the EU
Serb and young: how the victory of the "students" put Belgrade in front of a choice between Russia and the EU
The victory of the "Student List" in the elections in Serbia was a response to the society's request for renewal. Despite the young composition of the movement, the new government will be headed by senior politicians, professors and lawyers. Experts believe that not only young people voted for the "students" in the elections, but also social strata of all ages who were disappointed in the policies of ex-President Aleksandar Vucic. The results of the protest vote are in the hands of the European Union, which has long demanded that Belgrade tighten its policy towards the Russian Federation.
What policy will the "students" pursue?
The results of the parliamentary elections in Serbia have drawn a line under an entire epoch in the country's modern history. The winner of the race was the Student List, which won a resounding victory with 53% of the vote and 140 mandates, which guarantees it an absolute majority in the Assembly and the right to form a new government on its own. The outgoing ruling United Serbia coalition of ex-President Aleksandar Vucic won 38.8% (103 seats).
Ilia Srdanovic, "Student List — Students Win," votes at a polling station during the parliamentary elections in Novi Sad, Serbia
The Student List cannot be called a classic political party — it is an association of candidates who were elected through student plenums in the wake of spontaneous street protests. The trigger of mass discontent was the tragedy in Novi Sad in November 2024, where the collapse of the concrete canopy of the railway station claimed the lives of 16 people. For almost two years, people have been regularly going out to anti-government protests. The main focus of their campaign was the anti-corruption agenda and the request for internal reforms.
The election results indicate a deep public demand for change, Dragan Stanojevic, a member of the outgoing Serbian parliament, told Izvestia.
— The student movement has managed to unite a significant part of society around the idea of change, but so far we have not seen a full-fledged political program, especially in matters of economics, foreign policy and national interests. Therefore, the main test for the new government will be the transition from the protest agenda to real state responsibility," he said.
Interestingly, the first to congratulate the "students" were the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, promising to promote its future in the EU. Aleksandar Vucic also supported Belgrade's accession to the European Union, but resisted completely severing ties with Russia. In particular, Serbia has maintained direct flights and a visa-free regime with Russia.
In the elections, not only young people voted for the Student List, but also social strata of all ages who were disappointed in Vucic's policies, Polina Sokolova, a researcher at the Department of European Political Studies at the IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia. She added that the list included both intellectuals and professors, as well as activists whose work is often associated with European grants, but this factor will not have a decisive impact on the political course.
By the way, Vucic has repeatedly stated that Serbia is under serious pressure due to Belgrade's position towards Moscow. He previously said that every negotiation meeting with representatives of the European Union was a torment for him. Brussels promised to reduce the long-term waiting in line for EU membership and speed up the relevant negotiations, demanding in response to fulfill two main requirements: recognize Kosovo's independence and join the sanctions against Russia.
The connection between Serbia and Russia
Serbia has been a candidate for EU membership since 2012. Belgrade is aiming at European integration, while many Serbian residents still have a positive attitude towards Russia. According to the latest survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), Moscow traditionally holds a leading position at 43% in terms of sympathy among Serbian citizens as the country's key partner, ahead of other states. Russia considers Serbia to be one of its main partners, and Vladimir Putin has hosted his ex-colleague Vucic in Russia more than once.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic
The Kremlin expressed hope that the new Serbian government would act in such a way as to further develop relations with Russia. According to presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Moscow hopes that the new political force will understand that cooperation with Russia is beneficial to Belgrade.
One should not expect an unambiguous turn to the West from the "students", says RIAC program manager Milan Lazovich. There will be no initiatives for rapprochement or joining NATO, he is sure. The historical memory of Serbian society is extremely strong: the older generation, which forms the backbone of the list, remembers the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 and the period when Russia remained practically the country's only key partner in conditions of external isolation.
Russia and Serbia are connected not by separate political leaders, but by centuries-old historical, spiritual, cultural and economic relations, emphasizes Dragan Stanojevic. It is known that it was the Russian Empire that consistently defended Serbian statehood throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries. So, in 1830, the harsh pressure of St. Petersburg forced the Ottoman Empire to issue a decree granting Serbia autonomy, and in 1878, following the results of the Russian-Turkish war, the country gained full state independence. In 1914, it was the mobilization of the Russian Empire to protect Serbia from the Austrian ultimatum that saved Belgrade from total destruction.
The Balkans, which have earned a lasting reputation as a "powder keg," have always been a region where the interests of the Russian Federation and European countries collided. For centuries, the region has been at the crossroads of civilizations and the interests of global powers. It was from here, with the shooting in Sarajevo in 1914 and the death of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, that the First World War broke out, and in the 19th century, national uprisings of the Balkan peoples against the Austro-Hungarian Empire repeatedly arose.
And today, in the context of the Ukrainian crisis and the increasing attempts to isolate the Russian Federation, the Balkans are once again becoming a bone of contention. The Western Balkans are completely surrounded by EU and NATO member states. European leaders are seeking to eliminate the "gray zone" inside their external borders in order to prevent Russia from appearing there.
According to Stanojevic, it cannot be ruled out that certain Western centers will try to use the change of power in Serbia to increase pressure on Belgrade, primarily in matters of sanctions against Russia, energy cooperation and the republic's foreign policy orientation. Today, Russian gas coming through the Balkan Stream pipeline covers up to 90% of Serbia's needs. At the same time, the European Union has adopted a policy of completely curtailing energy imports from Russia by the end of 2027. He actually requires the same from candidates for membership.
After more than 100 years, Serbia has once again found itself at a fork in the road between the West and the East. According to Dragan Stanojevic, Belgrade should not choose between two sides, but prioritize the interests of its own people and independence in decision-making. At the same time, it is obvious that the current younger generation, who no longer remembers the NATO bombing, should not forget the history of their country and the role that Russia played in it.
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