The EAEU countries assessed the consequences of the suspension of Armenia's membership

The Eurasian Intergovernmental Council has prepared a report analyzing the impact of Yerevan's possible withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The document contains an assessment of the risks for the republic in the event of suspension of the Treaty on the Union of May 29, 2014.

A publication on the website of the Government of the Russian Federation notes that membership in the European Union is incompatible with participation in the EAEU. In this regard, the countries of the association have the right to suspend Armenia's participation until the relevant referendum is held. Such a scenario, according to the report, will lead to large-scale economic consequences for the republic.

Experts predict that Armenia's GDP may decrease by 15.6%, and the country's inflation rate will rise to 14.9%. At the same time, trade turnover with the member states of the Union risks decreasing by more than 55%. Full-scale veterinary and sanitary control will be introduced for local products, and the taxation regime will return to the rules in force for third countries.

Significant changes are expected in the energy and transport sectors. The cost of gas imports for Armenia may increase by 69% and amount to $657.5 million per year. In addition, tariffs for freight rail transportation will increase.

"[The report] includes <...> assessment of the possible consequences of the suspension of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014 in relation to the Republic of Armenia," reads the material on the website of the Russian government.

The authors of the document also pointed out the risks for the labor market and the service sector. Labor quotas and mandatory registration of patents for employment in the Union countries may be introduced for Armenian citizens. The export of tourist services in the republic may decrease by almost 40%, and the supply of alcoholic beverages abroad — by 50%.

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On September 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, asked him to give the Armenian people the opportunity to resolve the issue of joining the EU themselves. At the same time, he warned that in the event of the republic's withdrawal from the union, it should prepare for possible problems in trade due to differences in the regulation of agricultural products, technical requirements and standards of the EAEU from the EU.