Border of the world: Russia is ready to help resolve the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea

Russia can mediate in the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. If both sides are interested, Russia is ready to provide a platform for organizing contacts at the Russia–Africa summit, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. The UN Security Council has already held closed consultations in connection with this crisis. The Ethiopian army stands on the border, accusing the neighboring country of supporting the separatists. In Eritrea, however, they believe that Ethiopia will escalate in order to seize ports near the Red Sea that previously belonged to it.

The possibility of conflict resolution

An armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea risks breaking out at any moment: the troops of Addis Ababa are already stationed on the border with the neighboring state. Russia called on both countries to exercise restraint, strengthen confidence-building measures and overcome contradictions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.

— If both sides are interested, we are ready to provide a platform for organizing contacts between their representatives in order to find compromise solutions, including on the sidelines of the third Russia–Africa summit in Moscow. We hope that Ethiopia and Eritrea will take advantage of this opportunity," the diplomat added.

The Russia–Africa Summit will be held in Moscow on October 28-29. At a recent meeting in New Delhi on the sidelines of the 18th BRICS Summit, Vladimir Putin personally invited Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to the upcoming forum. He accepted the invitation. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who regularly visits Russia, is also expected in Moscow.

Alimov stressed that the aggravation of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea worries the Russian side. He called both countries long-standing and reliable partners of Russia.

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Russia has already acted as a mediator in African conflicts. For example, in 2018, when the civil war actually tore apart the Central African Republic, Moscow, in coordination with the UN, sent military instructors there and brought the opponents to the negotiating table. Russian diplomats launched the Khartoum process, which led to the signing of a peace agreement in 2019.

Moscow has been using similar tactics in Libya since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi: the Russian leadership has been in contact with all forces in the country for years, from the Government of National Accord in Tripoli to Marshal Khalifa Haftar. In 2020, the Russian Federation organized their direct talks in Moscow, stopping the hot phase of the war and turning the crisis into a political dialogue.

The UN Security Council has already discussed the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict at a closed meeting on October 13, but the participants did not adopt official resolutions. At the same time, the positions of the key players were divided. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on the parties to return to peace. A number of Western states insisted on the harsh intervention of the United Nations and the dispatch of monitoring missions. Another part of the Council's members, including Russia, opposed external pressure on sovereign countries.

Russia is able to facilitate contacts through the institutions of the African Union, said Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of Political Theory at MGIMO. In his opinion, such a step minimizes the risks of direct interference for Moscow, which is balancing between a key partner in the UN, Eritrea, and an important BRICS market, Ethiopia.

The expert added that reconciliation would require the parties to make impossible concessions now, and the blame for the failure could be placed on the Russian Federation. Currently, the countries of the Global South are avoiding interference in the historical conflict in order to maintain ties with both countries. China, which has powerful levers of investment pressure on the region, is demonstrating similar restraint.

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What are the causes of the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The roots of the current conflict go back to history. In 1993, Eritrea separated from Ethiopia after a long war, which caused the latter to lose access to the sea. Already in 1998, the border dispute escalated into a new bloody war that claimed the lives of 70-80 thousand people. Although Ethiopia won a military victory in 2000, the international commission awarded the disputed territories to Eritrea. Despite this decision, Addis Ababa has not withdrawn its troops from there.

The situation changed in 2018, when Abiy Ahmed took over the post of Prime Minister of Ethiopia. He made peace with his neighbors, for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize.

The reason for the new escalation was the situation in northern Ethiopia. There, in September, rebels controlling the Tigray region intensified their fighting against the central government. Seven rebel groups have formed the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival, seized regional airports and launched an offensive to the south and east to block the route to the ports of Djibouti, which carries up to 95% of Ethiopia's exports. According to Addis Ababa, the rebels acted with the support of Eritrea.

The Ethiopian army's counteroffensive made it possible to recapture the capital of the Makele region and reach the border area. Government forces and the Eritrean army stood face to face. While Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of supporting the separatists and invading Tigray 60 km away, the Eritrean Ministry of Information rejects these statements, calling them a pretext for seizing ports on the Red Sea and an official declaration of war.

Nikolai Golovko, a leading expert at the HSE Center for African Studies, believes that the conflict will not escalate into a full-scale war, as Ethiopia is held back by an internal crisis. The Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival has not been defeated, and openly aims to overthrow the government of Abiy Ahmed.

Ivan Loshkarev believes that if the fighting does resume, the conflict risks turning into a protracted positional war. Formally, the Ethiopian army is more powerful, but Eritrea has the advantage of continuous combat experience in recent years. In addition, despite Ethiopia's superiority in drones and MLRS, its regional security forces are poorly prepared for front-line combat. In mountainous areas, ambushes will easily negate the numerical advantage of the Ethiopians, although the republic will gain a clear advantage on the plains and in the desert.

In this situation, Russia's diplomatic efforts may be almost the only chance to keep the region from a new bloody war that could paralyze world trade. The fighting risks coming close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where shipping is already suffering due to the conflict between the Yemeni Houthis and Saudi Arabia. If a land war on the African coast is added to the missile strikes, traffic through the Suez Canal may completely stop. In this case, international carriers will have to send ships bypassing Africa, which will dramatically increase freight prices and provoke a new jump in the cost of oil.