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- Keep in the black: businesses have started to actively insure themselves against fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate
Keep in the black: businesses have started to actively insure themselves against fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate
In the first half of 2026, Russian businesses spent one and a half times as much money to protect themselves from fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. The companies allocated about 1.6 trillion rubles for foreign exchange forwards, according to the Central Bank. These tools allow you to fix the exchange rate in advance for future calculations and reduce losses when it changes. In 2023-2025, businesses used such protection much less frequently, but in 2026, demand for it began to grow. This helps companies not to include the risks of a weakening ruble in the cost of goods, although insurance against currency fluctuations also requires costs. Who uses forwards most actively and how this affects prices for consumers — in the Izvestia article.
How does a business insure itself against fluctuations in the ruble
Russian companies are increasingly using tools to protect against currency fluctuations. By July 1, the volume of active currency forwards reached about $21 billion, or 1.6 trillion rubles at the exchange rate at that time. This follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. A year earlier, the figure was $13.8 billion, so it increased by about 1.5 times.
The number of transactions is also increasing. In the first half of the year, companies entered into 18,500 over—the-counter currency forwards, almost twice as many as in the same period last year. Such contracts are usually concluded directly between the company and the bank: the parties independently agree on the amount, exchange rate and term of currency exchange. Futures, which are similar instruments, but with standard, less flexible conditions, are mainly traded on the futures exchange market.
Currency forwards were widely used by Russian businesses until 2022, but after the imposition of sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign participants, the volume of such transactions decreased sharply.
Interest in this instrument is now recovering, the Central Bank's press service told Izvestia. Such contracts are signed by both large exporters and importers, as well as small enterprises. At the same time, the range of companies using such protection against currency risks is expanding.
The forward allows you to fix in advance the exchange rate at which the company will receive or sell the currency in the future, and thereby protect against losses due to currency fluctuations. For example, if the company had agreed to deliver the goods in the spring of 2026, when the dollar was worth about 71 rubles, and had to pay for it in September, when the US currency rose to 87 rubles, the total value of the transaction in ruble terms would have increased by almost a quarter. This can completely eat up profits and even lead to a loss.
Therefore, the use of such tools is justified, says Timur Nigmatullin, senior investment consultant at FG Finam. However, protection from currency risks is not free, the expert emphasized. The forward exchange rate differs from the current one, among other things, due to the difference in interest rates in Russia and the United States. Now it is about 10% per annum — it is at this rate, according to the expert, that the currency is provided.
Thus, the benefit from the forward is manifested primarily in case of sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate or if the company made a mistake in forecasting its dynamics.
With a stable exchange rate, the use of forwards, on the contrary, creates additional costs: the business actually pays for the predictability of cash flows, and not for the opportunity to make money by changing the exchange rate, Finam concluded.
Why do companies use currency forwards more actively
First of all, importing companies use forwards, which purchase equipment, goods, components and raw materials abroad, and then sell products in Russia for rubles, explained Alexey Begaev, founder of Insek Group, member of the General Council of Delovaya Rossiya. Such contracts are also concluded by exporters who receive foreign exchange earnings, but pay for production and other expenses in rubles.
For businesses, the main currency risk lies in the uncertainty of future expenses and revenue, Denis Astafyev noted. Months may pass between the conclusion of the contract and the payment, during which the exchange rate will change significantly. The weakening of the ruble increases the importer's costs, while the strengthening reduces the exporter's ruble revenue. The forward allows you to determine in advance the conditions under which the transaction will remain profitable.
Difficulties with international supplies have become an additional factor in the growth of demand, Alexey Begaev said. Due to the sanctions, the delivery time of foreign equipment has increased significantly, and sometimes companies have to change logistics routes already during transportation. As a result, it can be difficult to determine the date of receipt of the product in advance. During this time, the exchange rate may change significantly, so the business strives to fix the cost of a future payment in advance.
In general, the main task of such tools is to make future expenses and incomes more predictable, the press service of the Central Bank emphasized. This practice has long been widespread in global markets: a pre-fixed exchange rate allows companies to plan their activities regardless of the further dynamics of currencies.
How Currency Protection Helps Keep Prices Down
The use of forwards can smooth out the impact of ruble fluctuations on the cost of goods, said Maria Boldyreva, Associate Director for Corporate Ratings at Expert RA agency. Companies strive to reduce the dependence of profits on the exchange rate, so they do not always have to immediately compensate for the appreciation of the currency by increasing prices.
This effect is especially noticeable for importers, Denis Astafyev noted. Without fixing the value of the currency to pay for foreign supplies, even a short-term weakening of the ruble leads to an increase in costs that businesses have to factor into the price of goods.
However, forwards do not guarantee price cuts or freezes, Maria Boldyreva stressed. Protection against currency risk itself requires costs, and its cost can also be taken into account when forming the final price.
Thus, currency forwards can make the transfer of exchange rate changes to prices smoother, but they do not eliminate it completely, Denis Astafyev concluded. In fact, such tools help to avoid sharp price spikes rather than completely prevent their growth.
What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next
Currency risks for Russian companies remain significant due to fluctuations in the ruble and uncertainty about the future market situation, said Guzel Protsenko, CEO of Alfa-Forex. Therefore, the need for businesses to protect future payments remains even in the event of a strengthening of the national currency.
One of the main factors for the ruble remains the cost of Russian oil, Timur Nigmatullin believes. The average Urals price increased from $41 per barrel in January to $92 in September, more than doubling. The rise in oil prices is linked, among other things, to supply disruptions in the Middle East. High oil prices support foreign exchange earnings in Russia, but the situation depends on geopolitics, so it is difficult to reliably predict the further movement of quotations.
By the end of the first decade of October, the dollar may fluctuate between 82-87 rubles, the euro — 92-98, and the yuan — 12.25–13 rubles, predicts Guzel Protsenko. Even on such a short horizon, the ranges remain wide, which shows the high uncertainty for companies.
At the same time, FG Finam, in principle, did not give a forecast of the dollar exchange rate until the end of the year. The risk of a weakening ruble will increase if oil starts to fall in price, Timur Nigmatullin noted. For consumers, the consequences of such a movement do not appear immediately: an increase in foreign exchange costs can be transferred to the prices of imported goods within a few months, and sometimes this process takes up to a year.
The current growth in the number of transactions with forwards indicates the transition of the business to more mature financial planning, Alexey Begaev believes. In the near future, such tools may become even more widespread among Russian companies.
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