When you leave, turn out the lights: the level of support for Ukraine is rapidly falling in Europe

Against the background of attempts by European governments to obstruct diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis by all means, more and more media outlets are writing about Kiev's financial problems coming over the next few months and the lack of agreed ways for Brussels to resolve them. In addition, Western analysts note with concern the growing dissatisfaction of European citizens with the excessive costs of maintaining Ukraine's political leadership, which has already begun to affect electoral preferences. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Through hole

According to European analysts, despite the already approved next package of financial assistance from the EU, Ukraine risks facing a state budget deficit of about 70 billion euros next year. Moreover, 40 billion euros of them will have to go to cover defense expenses, the rest to fulfill social obligations to citizens.

Photo: Global Look Press/Hendrik Schmidt

Meanwhile, at the end of August, Bankova disclosed information about the current arrears of €24 billion. However, then official Kiev and representatives of the European Commission (EC) made statements about progress in finding new sources of financing.

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During recent negotiations with the European Commissioners, Ukraine was able to confirm its readiness to fulfill its financial obligations this year. The EC confirmed that Kiev should receive €16.6 billion in military aid and €17.1 billion in budget support, including €4.4 billion from previous programs.

However, as already mentioned, their receipt, as well as potential future tranches, is directly related to "unpopular decisions" on reforms that Ukrainian lawmakers have yet to make. Hence the existing ambiguity with the dates of receipt of funds.

The budget hole of €70 billion means an increase in European spending.

Photo: Global Look Press/Marius Burgelman

If we take as an initial commitment to cover two-thirds of the costs, then, consequently, Brussels will be faced with the need to find another €45 billion in excess of the agreed amounts of financing for next year.

In turn, Ukraine can try to find the missing funds in the de facto only way — by reducing social spending. In reality, this is already happening. In early September, Verkhovna Rada deputy Olga Vasilevskaya-Smaglyuk reported that Ukraine finances only social expenses, salaries for state employees and the maintenance of the military. All other budget items are no longer covered by the Government's capabilities. She added that the draft of the main financial document for next year provides for a 10% increase in social spending.

Nevertheless, according to media reports, the EC expresses doubts about the rationality of spending funds and continues to work on their "detailing".

Photo: IZVESTIA/Polina Violet

In addition, the situation is affected by the growing needs of the Armed Forces and the loss of entire branches of Ukrainian industry, such as metallurgy, as a result of successful strikes by the Russian army. And, as experts note in this regard, we are no longer just talking about closing budget gaps: the zeroing of grain exports and the destruction of warehouses across the country add a cumulative effect to what is happening.

Where to get money

Sources of financing are a separate headache. From time to time, European politicians raise the issue of frozen Russian assets, but any potential discussion on this topic ended as soon as it began. In addition to the well—known position of Belgium, the question remains unanswered about the integrity of the assets themselves - doubts have been repeatedly expressed about this. Accordingly, manipulations with Russian funds can cause a much bigger international scandal than one might expect.

Germany has been most active in this issue, with its total gratuitous aid to Ukraine recently exceeding the €100 billion mark. It is supported in one way or another by Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the Baltic states.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey Konkov

In this sense, the position of France is interesting, which stands "for", but with the condition of legal protection of Belgium's interests and concern for European unity. However, neither one nor the other is in sight yet.

Another hypothetical source is unallocated funds from various EU funds, for example, the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) rearmament program. However, in order to implement this initiative, it is also necessary to achieve a pan-European consensus.

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European countries are taking the costs on themselves, but they have practically nothing to help Kiev with.

Double imitation

Things are getting worse with the latter. According to the WSJ, "Europe is tired of Ukraine," referring to the results of recent polls and election results. The publication states that public support for opposition parties opposing further assistance to Ukraine is growing on the continent. As a result, there is an attempt by the European political "mainstream" to rhetorically move in two opposite directions.

On the one hand, representatives of the parties still ruling in Europe declare the need to support Ukraine in the armed struggle by all means possible and sabotage the diplomatic initiatives of the White House. On the other hand, they declare the need for a peaceful, in some cases urgent, settlement, such as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who recently visited Kiev. He brought representatives of German defense companies as part of the delegation to discuss the deployment of weapons production in Ukraine. But upon arrival, he hastened to urge Russia to reach a diplomatic settlement.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Kiev

Photo: REUTERS/Thomas Peter

It is noteworthy that a couple of years ago Merz was among those who spoke exclusively for the victory of Ukraine as the only possible outcome of the conflict. The Junge Welt publication compares the chancellor's mission with that of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2022: to keep Ukraine on a confrontational course through slogans about support "for as long as it takes."

Dwindling support

At the same time, according to polls, the number of European citizens who support the continuation of financial assistance to Kiev is consistently decreasing. According to YouGov, by February of this year, the European average had already dropped by half compared to the same indicator four years ago. Analysts also note the growing popularity of right-wing conservatives as a result of the economic consequences of the break with Russia and the increasing tension in relations with the United States.

A combination of economic factors and domestic political trends leads to appropriate decisions. For example, Poland and Romania refused to assist Ukraine in solving the problem of blocked grain exports.

In the current situation, the priority of the European political class is to coordinate long-term financial assistance to Kiev, as long as it remains possible. In addition, obviously, a separate calculation is being made for a change in the political situation in the United States after the midterm congressional elections. However, the "coalition of willing" has less and less time to maneuver.