By the weight of the vote: what to expect from the second round of elections in Brazil
Flavio Bolsonaro is in the lead after the first round of the Brazilian presidential election. He received 47.03% of the vote, while incumbent President Lula da Silva received 45.16%. The winner will be determined in the second round on October 25, and a small gap keeps the intrigue alive. Some of the wavering voters have sided with the right because of the accumulated discontent with the current government, experts say. At the same time, the results of the vote have already shown that "Bolsonarism" retains influence even four years after the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro.
Why did Bolsonaro come out ahead
Brazil's elections are far from over. As a result of the October 4 vote, none of the candidates received 50% of the votes to become the winner. 56.1 million people voted for Flavio Bolsonara, 53.9 million for Lula. The result turned out to be unexpected, since the majority of polls gave the current president an advantage the day before.
According to Brazilian media, Flavio was able to attract and even expand his father's traditional electorate. Even before the election, sociologists reported an increase in his support among men, evangelicals, the middle class and residents of the south-east of the country. As a result, Bolsonaro won in 14 states and the federal district, while Lula won in 12. The right has made especially noticeable progress in Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul.
The electoral map has also changed. According to the calculations of Folha de S.Paulo, Flavio won a majority in 714 municipalities, where Lula won in the 2022 elections. The result in Minas Gerais, one of the largest and most competitive electoral states in the country, is particularly significant. In 2022, Lula won there, and now Flavio Bolsonaro has won the majority. In Rio Grande do Sul, which had previously supported the right more often, the Bolsonarists significantly increased their advantage.
Flavio Bolsonaro's unexpected result is primarily due to the shift of some of the wavering voters to the right, said Alexandra Terzi, program coordinator of the RIAC. According to her, a situation is typical for a highly polarized society when, after several years of one political course, some voters turn to the opposition because of accumulated problems.
The geography of voting is also indicative, the expert noted. The Northeast, a poorer and traditionally leftist region, has mostly retained Lula's support. The South remained the mainstay of the right. And the densely populated southeast - primarily Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais — has noticeably swung towards Flavio. According to Terzi, the demand for lower taxes, greater freedom for business and a tougher security policy has worked here.
As a result of the first round, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party strengthened its influence in parliament. It won 121 seats out of 513 in the Chamber of Deputies, becoming the largest faction. At the same time, other right-wing and center-right forces, including the Brazilian Union (União Brasil) and the Republicans (Republicanos), retained significant political weight. The success was even more noticeable in the Senate: the party won 19 of the 54 contested seats there and will now have 28 senators out of 81. This makes the new composition of the Congress more conservative. If Lula retains his post, it will be more difficult for him to pass his initiatives through parliament.
What will the second round decide
Candidates approach the second round with the same set of systemic problems. The focus of voters' attention remains the high cost of living, rampant crime, corruption scandals and the general stagnation of the economy. Under Lula, unemployment and inequality have decreased, but Brazilians are still worried about expensive loans, large government debt, and slow growth. In addition, some voters are tired of the Workers' Party, which has intermittently remained in power for many years.
Flavio suggests a tougher economic course: to reduce part of the ministries and the state apparatus, to restrain costs and continue privatization. At the same time, he promises to preserve social programs. Lula, on the contrary, places more emphasis on social support and the active role of the state.
In the second round, the outcome may again be decided by a relatively small group of wavering voters, Terzi believes. She recalled that in 2022, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonara by a margin of only about 1.8 percentage points. Now Flavio starts the second round with an advantage, and some of the votes of candidates who dropped out after the first stage, according to the expert, can go to him. The third place was taken by the writer Augusto Kuri with 2.89%. Next came MBL founder and Missão party leader Renan Santos with 2.24% and former Governor of Goias Ronaldo Cayado from the PSD with 2.18%. The voters who did not come to the polling stations also play an important role: the turnout was about 79%, that is, about one in five citizens missed the vote. With a minimal gap between the candidates, these votes may become decisive in the second round.
However, other factors may determine the election result. According to political scientist Igor Pshenichnikov, Washington traditionally has a great influence on the political processes in Brazil, and its influence is manifested through working with political campaigns and public opinion. Social networks and advertising technologies play an important role, which make it possible to mobilize primarily young and wavering voters, the expert believes.
He recalled that during his presidency, Jair Bolsonaro openly focused on Trump and called himself his ally. Now, according to Pshenichnikov, the American administration is also interested in Flavio's victory.
For relations with Russia, Lula's re-election would mean maintaining the established course. Under his leadership, Moscow and Brasilia maintained close ties, and the trade turnover in 2025 reached $10.9 billion. Russia remains one of the key suppliers of fertilizers and diesel fuel to the Brazilian market.
For this reason, even if Flavio wins, a serious break with Moscow is unlikely, Pshenichnikov believes. Brazil needs Russian mineral fertilizers, and therefore economic interests will restrain too sharp a political turn.
Terzi does not expect a radical revision of the relationship either. According to her assessment, Brazil is unlikely to withdraw from the BRICS, join anti-Russian sanctions or significantly reduce trade with the Russian Federation. Rather, the intensity of political contacts with Moscow and Brasilia's activity within the association may change.
The result of the second round is important not only for the Russian Federation. Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world, with a population of over 214 million people. It is the largest economy in Latin America and one of the main consumer markets in the region. The outcome of October 25 will determine the political course of the largest state in the region and, along with it, the nature of Brazil's relations with the United States, Russia and other world centers of power.
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