Only gas: how will Vucic's resignation affect relations between Serbia and Russia
If the ruling Serbian Progressive Party wins the parliamentary elections, Belgrade is likely to retain gas supplies from Russia and refuse to join the sanctions. That's what the experts interviewed by "Izvestia" think. For the sake of campaigning, President Alexander Vucic has already left his post, who had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin and met with Sergey Lavrov the day before. The opposition still has a chance to challenge the 14-year rule of the Serbian Progressive Party, but it still does not have a clear foreign policy strategy. About who will lead Serbia until the new presidential elections — in the "Izvestia" material.
Who will replace Vucic as President of Serbia
A whole political era is coming to an end in Serbia: Alexander Vucic, who led the country for almost 10 years, announced his resignation from the presidency. The new head of state must be elected within 90 days, by the end of December. Vucic heads the list of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the parliamentary elections on September 25. If successful, the ex-president will now take the prime minister's chair.
Vucic explains his departure by participating in the parliamentary campaign. Earlier, he dissolved the country's legislature after several waves of protests that began at the end of 2024. The reason was the tragedy in the country's second largest city, Novi Sad, where 16 people died due to the collapse of the canopy of the reconstructed railway station. After the rallies in March 2025, the head of the cabinet, Milos Vucevic, resigned, and Juro Matsut took over his post. In December of the same year, Vucic first announced the possibility of holding early parliamentary elections in the republic, and later promised to leave the presidency.
Former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic
According to the Constitution, the Speaker of the National Assembly (Parliament) will serve as the head of State Ana Brnabic. Until 2024, she headed the government for seven years, having established herself as an official loyal to Vucic. At the same time, it focuses on the West in its foreign policy. For example, in May, at a conference in Prague, Brnabic said she did not consider relations between Moscow and Belgrade to be "fraternal."
In the Serbian media, the speaker of parliament is named among the two main contenders for the top post from the ruling party. The second option is considered to be the current head of government, Juro Matsut, who treats Russia more amicably. However, both politicians depend on Vucic's support in one way or another. ""Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation and editor-in-chief of the "Balkanist" project, suggested in an interview with Izvestia that Vucic would most likely declare his candidacy for president after the parliamentary elections. At the same time, the opposition is also in no hurry to announce its candidates.
Election race in Serbia
Aleksandar Vucic's resignation is not the first in the history of modern Serbia. In 2012, Boris Tadic left his post ahead of schedule, who tried to get elected again, but lost to Tomislav Nikolic, a representative of the Serbian Progressive Party. It is important to understand that Serbia is more of a parliamentary republic, where the role of the prime minister in governing the country is much more important. Vucic holds the post of president, but at the same time retains influence over the ruling party, thereby concentrating the main mechanisms of government in his hands.
The main opposition force was the "Student List — Students Win," led by Ilia Srdanovic, a professor at the Medical Faculty of the University of Novi Sad. On September 15, the Serbian Election Commission registered a list of 250 candidates, which included professors, doctors, entrepreneurs, cultural figures and activists from different regions of the country.
Opinion polls have so far recorded the leadership of Vucic's party. A study by the Faktor Plus center conducted on September 16-20 showed that the ruling forces are gaining 48.6% against 37.1% of the student opposition. If the elections had been held today, the Serbian Progressive Party would have won 129 out of 250 seats, retaining its majority. Two more forces are overcoming the three percent barrier to entry into parliament: The Socialist Party of Serbia (4.9%) and the pro-European opposition bloc (3.6%). According to Oleg Bondarenko, the SPP can get about 46-47%, and form a majority in a coalition with the Socialists and national minorities, and Vucic will take the prime minister's chair.
At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the final result of the "Student List" will be higher than predicted, said RIAC program manager Milan Lazovich. In his opinion, the main surprises may lie in the very quality of this campaign, the hidden reserve of undefined and potential coalition effects. If these factors work together, the "Student List" can not only improve its result, but also pose a real challenge to the dominance of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party. Therefore, there is a possibility that the ex-president will have to make certain concessions following the election results if he intends to keep power in his hands, the expert believes.
How will relations between Russia and Serbia change
It is noteworthy that before resigning, on September 26, Vucic called Vladimir Putin. During the conversation, the parties discussed the development of Russian-Serbian relations and international issues. The main topic, according to the Serbian politician, was the extension of the gas agreement and the situation around NIS. Yesterday, Vucic met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during the high-level week of the UN General Assembly in New York. After that, answering a question from a correspondent of "Izvestia", he expressed the hope that Belgrade and Moscow would retain opportunities for further development of cooperation in all areas. The Serbian leader stressed that Belgrade had not joined the sanctions against Moscow, despite the pressure exerted.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Serbian President Alexander Vucic during a meeting on the sidelines of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly
The three-year contract for the supply of Russian gas to Serbia expired in June 2025. Since then, the parties have been renewing a short-term contract for the supply of natural gas at a discounted price every three months. The next agreement expires on September 30, so it is important for the Serbian leader to preserve Russian gas imports during the political transit period.
Milan Lazovich believes that if the SPP wins the parliamentary elections, the course towards maintaining cheap Russian gas and refusing to join the sanctions is likely to continue. Aleksandar Vucic intends to head the government after leaving the post of president, and the extension of the gas agreement will be his trump card in the campaign. If none of the forces gets a decisive majority, the formation of the cabinet may be delayed, and the gas issue will become a subject of bargaining between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces. In this case, the three-month contract extensions may continue, but the long-term stability of supplies will remain in question.
By the way, on September 30, the US license for NIS, the country's largest oil corporation, which is under American sanctions due to Russian ownership, ends. Negotiations are underway to sell 56% of "Gazprom Neft" shares to Hungarian MOL, and their outcome may also depend on the political configuration after the elections.
However, it is not America that demands a complete break with Russia from Serbia, but the EU. Brussels insists on joining the common foreign policy, which means the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, the termination of gas contracts and the cessation of direct flights. Alexander Vucic, in his speech at the UN General Assembly meeting, noted that "full membership in the EU remains a strategic priority." However, Belgrade expects "greater clarity of prospects and more concrete results from the process."
Former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks at the 81st UN General Assembly at the UN Headquarters in New York.
The opposition is trying to avoid foreign policy issues. According to Serbian analysts, this is due to fears of losing voters if they take a clear position. Vucic emphasizes that the "Student List" is imposed by external forces. European politicians refrain from directly supporting the "List", but they are also not interested in keeping the current leader in power.
Apparently, Serbia will have a complete reset of the political field before the end of the year. The country is choosing between maintaining the current course of balancing between the world's largest players and switching to exclusively internal problems with vague prospects for action on the external circuit. Aleksandar Vucic is still in the lead in this race, but Serbian politics at the final stage of the campaign, as we can see, is full of unexpected surprises.
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