Hydrocarbon diet: budget will receive 7.3 trillion oil and gas revenues in 2026
Expensive oil has not yet saved the budget from a decline in commodity revenues. According to recent estimates by the Accounting Chamber, in 2026 they will amount to 7.3 trillion rubles, 1.6 trillion less than the plan. Tax revenues from mining are expected to be lower than the calculation. A strong ruble is affecting, and part of the increase is eaten up by the cost of shipping and insurance of raw materials. At the same time, the importance of non-oil and gas revenues is increasing for the budget, and they are growing. Why the jump in oil prices does not close the gap with the plan, how conservative government scenarios are useful for the treasury and how much it can save in 2027 - in the "Izvestia" material.
Why oil and gas revenues may be lower than planned
The oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in 2026 may amount to 7.3 trillion rubles, which is 18% less than the approved amount. This assessment is provided by the Accounting Chamber in a September report, which "Izvestia" has reviewed.
The auditors expect that mineral extraction tax (MET) receipts from oil will be below the plan by 15%, from gas condensate — by 17%, and the additional income tax (income tax) from hydrocarbons — by 48%. "Izvestia" was informed in the Accounting Chamber that the reason for the shortfall is that the dollar-ruble exchange rate turned out to be lower than planned in the budget. At the same time, the price of oil has increased compared to the one that was included in the calculations.
It is too early to draw conclusions about the receipts for the year, the press service of the Ministry of Finance told "Izvestia". The economic situation is constantly changing, and budget revenues are affected by a number of factors, including the situation on global commodity markets, they added.
At the same time, it is important that treasury revenues continue to grow, the ministry noted. They are becoming more diversified — the share of income from domestic activities is increasing, and dependence on raw materials is decreasing. Currently, the share of oil and gas revenues is just over 19%, the Finance Ministry concluded.
One of the reasons for the lag is the strong ruble, according to independent economist Viktor Mangazeev. According to him, the budget for 2026 was based on the exchange rate of 92.2 rubles per dollar, whereas in the first half of the year the US currency cost an average of 76.3 rubles. The ruble price of oil, which is used in calculating taxes, depends on the exchange rate, the expert explained. Therefore, the strengthening of the domestic currency has limited revenues to the treasury, despite the rise in prices of raw materials relative to the forecast of the authorities.
The updated estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development also suggest a stronger ruble: the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2026 is expected to reach 79.5 rubles. The forecast for 2027 remains at 87.4 rubles, for 2028 - 92 rubles, for 2029 - 96 rubles.
The effect of rising oil prices is also limited by supply costs, Viktor Mangazeev noted. According to him, transportation, insurance and intermediary commissions cost exporters up to $30 per barrel. At the same time, Urals spot quotes exceeded $120 in September.
Another factor pointed out by the economist is payments to oil companies on the fuel damper. This mechanism compensates companies for part of the difference between the export and domestic price, supporting supplies to the Russian market. According to the Ministry of Finance, in January – August, the amount of payments, including reverse transfers of oil companies to the budget, amounted to about 916 billion.
The distribution of supplies is also influenced by the fuel situation in the country, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global. According to her, amid the disruptions, companies are sending more oil to Russian refineries instead of exporting it.
At the same time, the Ministry of Energy lowered the forecast of foreign supplies of petroleum products for 2026 from 122.6 million tons in the May estimate to 98.5 million tons. According to the calculations of the ministry, the production of raw materials with gas condensate will decrease by 3.4% compared to last year, to 494.2 million tons. In 2027, it is expected to recover to 500 million tons.
Thus, oil and gas revenues are simultaneously being pressured by a strong ruble, price dynamics and export volumes," concluded Alexander Potavin, analyst at "Finam" Financial Group. He expects the situation to improve in the third quarter, as the domestic currency weakens and oil prices rise. This may partially offset the impact of low quotes at the beginning of the year, the expert believes. According to the auditors, in the first six months of 2026, raw materials revenues amounted to about 3.5 trillion, about 40% of the plan.
How much will the budget gain from oil and gas in 2027
Next year, the oil and gas revenues of the federal budget may amount to 6.5–8 trillion, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global predicts. According to her, much will depend on the average annual Urals price.
The Ministry of Energy expects that in 2027 a barrel of Russian oil will cost an average of $53. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance proposes to reduce its base price in the budget rule from the current $59 to $50. This is a price guideline based on which budget expenditures are calculated — it is not equal to the forecast of the market value of raw materials.
— The government is laying down a conservative scenario and does not expect that the current high prices for raw materials will continue next year, — Natalia Milchakova believes.
In her opinion, the Middle East conflict can be resolved by that time. If the oil price premium associated with this crisis disappears and the global economy continues to slow down, commodity revenues will come under additional pressure, Viktor Mangazeev believes.
In these conditions, the importance of non-oil and gas revenues increases for the budget. In the second quarter, they were more than a quarter higher than a year earlier, President Vladimir Putin said earlier. According to the current plan for the whole of 2026, the share of non-resource revenues is about 78%, and in the draft budget for three years it will exceed 80%, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
At the same time, the budget retains a margin of safety. According to the Finance Minister, Russia's public debt remains one of the lowest among the G20 countries, which leaves room for additional borrowing. At the same time, spending priorities remain — fulfilling social obligations, ensuring defense and security, and achieving national development goals. According to the Ministry, the budget package provides for financing all these tasks.
According to Viktor Mangazeev, the growing share of such revenues reduces the dependence of the federal budget on oil prices. However, it does not in itself mean that additional revenues will fully compensate for the possible reduction in revenues from raw materials: both their volume and the size of treasury expenditures are important.
Thus, the budget's support is changing: the oil cushion is getting thinner, and the weight of revenues from the domestic economy is getting bigger. Along with dependence on the price of a barrel, risks are also shifting: now the incomes of companies and citizens are especially important for budget sustainability.
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