Dialogue has begun: what to expect from the resumption of contacts between the United States and Iran

The meeting of representatives of Iran and the United States at the UN General Assembly is unlikely to put an end to the confrontation, experts interviewed by "Izvestia" believe, and, on the contrary, warn of the risk of escalation. Although the three-hour negotiations, according to Donald Trump, went "very well." At the same time, the American president himself was not present at them and does not refuse harsh rhetoric against Tehran. The head of the White House allowed both the conclusion of the deal and the "destruction" of the Islamic republic. However, Tehran, despite the threats, stands its ground. The Iranian side agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz only after the immediate lifting of the American naval blockade, the unblocking of frozen assets with compensation and the cessation of the war "on all fronts."

The results of the Iran-US talks in New York

The contacts between the United States and Iran at the UN General Assembly were the first after the complete breakdown of the June truce. Then the parties signed the Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day ceasefire regime to prepare a full-scale peace agreement. However, in July, the agreements collapsed, followed by another round of escalation. The meeting in New York is intended to test the ground for the resumption of the diplomatic process, but the harsh conditions of the parties do not yet allow us to talk about a rapprochement of positions.

The American negotiating team includes special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Iranian side was represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. At the same time, there were no direct contacts between the diplomats: the meeting was indirect, and the Qatari mediators acted as "shuttles", shuttling between the delegations throughout the day.

Special Envoy of the President of the United States Stephen Witkoff and son-in-law of the President of the United States Jared Kushner

Photo: RIA Novosti/POOL/Alexander Kazakov

"" Trump himself, although he called the discussions "very productive," noted that Tehran had sent representatives of "not the highest level" (Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was preparing to speak at the General Assembly). In turn, Steve Witkoff described the round as "constructive and promising," adding that the Qatari diplomats would continue their mission. During the three-hour meeting, according to Trump, "a lot of good ideas" were presented.

Iranian State Television claims that at the meeting, Araghchi outlined to the American side the conditions for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz: the immediate lifting of the American naval blockade, the unblocking and payment of all frozen assets and the cessation of the war on all fronts.

The country's authorities, in fact, insist on Washington's recognition of the new legal status of this strategic artery, when control over shipping should be fully transferred to the joint jurisdiction of Iran and Oman. Reuters sources in Tehran noted that if an agreement is reached, Iran may resume navigation through the strait within seven days. At the same time, according to these rumors, in the form of a compromise, the Islamic Republic is ready for smaller steps on the part of Washington than it publicly announces — namely, the lifting of the naval blockade and the easing of military pressure.

Photo: REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

At the same time, Donald Trump made an extremely harsh statement from the UN rostrum. The head of the White House said that he was faced with a choice: to conclude a new agreement with Iran or to go for its rapid destruction. According to the American leader, signing the deal will allow Tehran to recover and "create a much greater country than it has ever been." Otherwise, Trump warned, Washington would create "hell without a chance of survival," completely depriving the country of the opportunity to influence the region.

What motivates the parties to the conflict

The analysts interviewed by "Izvestia" do not expect a breakthrough from the meetings in New York. The contacts themselves are positive, as they temporarily reduce the degree of tension, noted orientalist Elena Suponina. However, according to her, it is not worth counting on a lasting settlement due to deep mutual distrust and fundamental differences between the parties.

In the current round, everyone has their own pragmatic goals. For Tehran, this is a demonstration of readiness for dialogue, political analyst Igor Pshenichnikov believes. The negotiations allow Donald Trump to show American voters at least minimal progress on the foreign policy track before the midterm congressional elections.

Photo: TASS/Valery Sharifulin

But there is no chance of a real settlement now, says political analyst Alexander Kargin. According to him, the points of the Islamabad Memorandum signed in the summer were practically not implemented by the parties. The only exception was the short-term opening of the Strait of Hormuz, due to purely pragmatic interests.: Tehran needed to resume oil exports, and Washington needed to bring down fuel prices. However, now the transit is blocked again, and the parties are waiting to see who will be the first to make concessions.

Iran expects the Republicans to weaken their positions after the November congressional elections, but Donald Trump will retain the presidency anyway. The political scientist predicts a sharp escalation of the crisis at the end of the year: Washington may not only increase sanctions pressure, but also resume hostilities.

Igor Pshenichnikov believes that the tactical advantage is now on the side of Tehran, since Trump has not achieved any of the key goals. The military campaign of the US-led coalition began in February 2026 under maximalist slogans. The White House has declared its desire to completely eliminate Iran's nuclear program, destroy its military potential, change power in the country and ensure free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump initially demanded the unconditional surrender of the enemy and ruled out any compromises, but for eight months the US and Israeli strikes have not caused critical damage to Iran's military infrastructure. Moreover, the Pentagon's internal reports record an acute shortage of ammunition in the United States itself. Iran's political system also survived: contrary to the coalition's calculations, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei did not provoke a coup or a collapse of power.

Photo: Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Zoe Simpson/Handout via REUTERS

As a result, by the summer, the Trump administration was forced to soften its stance. In particular, the president agreed to leave Tehran ballistic missiles in an amount proportional to the arsenals of its neighbors. To persuade Iran to a truce, the White House promised to unfreeze its billions of assets and launch an international reconstruction fund for $300 billion. However, the United States has not yet paid a cent to Tehran, and the fund itself still exists only on paper.

The current situation puts Washington at a dead end. According to Igor Pshenichnikov, Trump cannot get out of the conflict, as this would mean the capitulation of the White House. However, he could not continue the protracted campaign. Since Tehran's conditions remain unacceptable to the United States, the analyst admits that after the November congressional elections, the confrontation may flare up with renewed vigor and escalate into a large-scale regional crisis.

An additional factor of instability remains the position of Israel, which, due to its leadership's radical approaches to the Iranian threat, may further escalate the conflict, taking advantage of the Trump presidency.

Photo: Getty Images/Nir Alon

A number of experts point out that in the worst-case scenario, Washington could use its full military potential for massive bombing of the Islamic Republic. In these circumstances, the Middle East risks plunging into a protracted geopolitical crisis. The irreconcilable differences between the parties actually exclude the possibility of lasting peace in the foreseeable future. Any scenario for the development of events — from the resumption of massive bombing to a smoldering hybrid confrontation — condemns the region to years of instability.