Experts named three scenarios for changing the conditions of a family mortgage after October 1

The family mortgage terms are expected to be reviewed on October 1. "Metrium" specialists have studied possible reform scenarios and calculated the consequences for borrowers. "Izvestia" got acquainted with their calculations on September 23.

The main expected innovation of the reform is the differentiation of rates: instead of a single 6% for all, it will be linked to the number of children in the family. The logic is simple — to make support more targeted and encourage large families: the more children, the more profitable the loan. At the same time, the grace period is planned to be limited in time, which, even at a low rate, will increase the monthly payment. The final parameters have not yet been approved by a government decree at the time of publication, so adjustments are possible.

To assess the potential financial burden, the company's experts used current price indicators of the primary housing market. According to their data, the average cost of an apartment in the mass segment of new buildings in Moscow was 21 million rubles, and in the regions — 7.5 million rubles (49 square meters). The mortgage is calculated according to the standard: the loan term is 30 years, the initial payment is 20%. If the required amount exceeds the established program limit, the remainder is financed at a notional market rate of 12% per annum. In scenarios with a limited subsidy period, the balance of the principal debt after the grace period of 10 or 15 years is also transferred to a rate of 12% per annum for the remaining repayment period.

In an optimistic scenario, the burden will be redistributed in favor of large families by increasing credit limits, while payments for families with one or two children will increase due to higher rates. In Moscow, when buying an apartment for 21 million rubles, the payment for a family with one child will increase from 121.5 thousand to 137.6 thousand rubles, and from two to 129.4 thousand rubles. For families with three or more children, on the contrary, it will decrease to 100.8 thousand rubles. In the regions, with a housing cost of 7.5 million rubles, the payment will amount to 44.2 thousand, 40.1 thousand and 36.1 thousand rubles, respectively, instead of the current 36.2 thousand.

Forbidden lot: family mortgage is not available to residents of almost half of the regions

The average salary does not allow servicing even a preferential loan in Crimea, Kaliningrad, Krasnodar and other regions.

"Even an optimistic scenario creates serious difficulties for comfort-class buyers in Moscow. Increasing the limit to 18 million rubles will reduce the payment of large families by 17%, to 100.8 thousand rubles, but such a budget in the capital is usually enough only for a one-room apartment. Additional minimum floor space requirements will further narrow the choice," said Yaroslav Gutnov, founder of SIS Development.

A realistic scenario involves not only raising rates, but also limiting the grace period to the first 15 years. The remaining debt will then be recalculated at the market rate of 12%. In Moscow, families with one child will first pay 154.9 thousand rubles, and from the 16th year - 167.2 thousand; with two children — 128.8 thousand and 156.9 thousand; with three or more — 100.8 thousand and 143.4 thousand rubles. In the regions, payments will amount to 52.9 thousand and 59 thousand, 44.2 thousand and 55.5 thousand, 36.1 thousand and 51.3 thousand rubles, respectively.

The conservative scenario involves raising rates, lowering limits, and shortening the grace period to ten years. In Moscow, the payment for a family with one child will increase to 173 thousand rubles for the entire period. Families with two children will pay 154.9 thousand rubles in the first ten years and 169.7 thousand later, with three — 137.6 thousand and 165.5 thousand, with four or more — 121.5 thousand and 160.2 thousand rubles. In the regions, the corresponding payments will reach 61.9 thousand; 52.9 thousand and 60.3 thousand; 44.2 thousand and 58.2 thousand; 36.2 thousand and 55.5 thousand rubles.

"The restructuring of the family mortgage can transform it from a tool for supporting the construction market into targeted assistance to a narrow category of families. The maximum burden will fall on families with one child, which currently account for about 60% of transactions under the program. Large families will retain more affordable conditions, and in Moscow, under optimistic and realistic scenarios, they will even be able to reduce payments," summarizes Dmitry Proskurin, commercial director of "Metrium".

According to him, the most risky measure is to limit the grace period: in 10-15 years, families will face a sharp increase in payments due to the transition to a market rate. The expert considers a moderate increase in interest rates to be the most balanced solution, while increasing credit limits and maintaining current loan terms.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin on July 16, said that a family mortgage is the most reliable tool for supporting citizens. The Deputy Prime Minister, in turn, noted that, despite various circumstances, family mortgages continue to be in demand among the population.

According to Khusnullin, citizens continue to apply for a mortgage at a rate of 6%. In addition, he stressed that all obligations under existing mortgage lending programs are being fulfilled in full.