New Season: New York will try to suspend negotiations on Ukraine and Iran

A high-level week within the framework of the UN General Assembly begins in New York on September 22, and with it a whole negotiation marathon. The heads of State and their representatives are primarily focused on resolving the crises in the Middle East and Ukraine. The organization's Secretary General Antonio Guterres plans to hold meetings with Donald Trump, leaders of the Persian Gulf countries and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, "Izvestia" found out. However, not everyone strives to use the main UN platform for constructive dialogue. In parallel with the upcoming Russian-American contacts, Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Zelensky can use the organization's rostrum to strengthen support for Kiev.

The Ukrainian settlement at the UN General Assembly

New York will host a high-level week within the framework of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly from September 22 to 28. The leaders of the countries will outline their positions on the challenges facing the world from the podium. However, public appearances will only be a formality — diplomats will try to make the main political decisions behind the scenes. For example, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres plans to hold a number of important meetings, Deputy Spokesman for the Secretary General Farhan Haq told "Izvestia".

— We are expecting a meeting with the US president on September 22, but we cannot confirm it yet. The Secretary General intends to meet with the Gulf states and with Foreign Minister Lavrov, if their schedules allow it," Haq stressed.

But one of the most anticipated events is a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. These talks will help clarify, if not the contours of future peace agreements, then at least Washington's position, especially ahead of potential contacts between Russia, the United States and Ukraine. So far, there has been no progress on the issue of resuming trilateral negotiations, said Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president.

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The upcoming ministerial talks in New York will be a logical continuation of the recent closed contacts between the White House emissaries in Moscow and Kiev and the subsequent conversation between the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States, which took place on September 8. During that conversation, Vladimir Putin outlined the situation at the front and named concrete steps that Washington could take to bring the conflict to an accelerated end. Donald Trump will probably convey his thoughts on this issue through the Secretary of State.

The main problem of the dialogue is that the American side does not offer Russia any specifics on the Ukrainian track, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, told "Izvestia". According to him, even Rubio's possible criticism of Ukraine's position at the UNGA session will not radically change the situation. The United States is striving to conclude at least a declarative or framework truce agreement in order to pass it off as its own foreign policy success in the run-up to congressional elections. According to the expert, Washington's proposal to at least partially lift anti-Russian sanctions and recognize Russian sovereignty over new regions may bring the trilateral meeting closer.

However, other events will unfold in parallel with the Russian-American contacts. On the sidelines of New York, Vladimir Zelensky will try to coordinate with Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron the strengthening of the Ukrainian air defense forces.

The French president also has something to discuss with his American counterpart. Paris fears that the United States will monopolize the negotiations and push the EU to the sidelines of the process. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin bluntly called Brussels the main obstacle to peace, saying that the leaders of the union want to enter into negotiations only to create a preponderance in favor of Kiev. According to Bogdan Bezpalko, any attempts by Brussels to intervene are useless until Europe offers at least some options for resolving the conflict.

However, contacts at the UN General Assembly may not bring the parties closer to a settlement at all, said Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. In his opinion, a diplomatic shift requires a serious breakthrough on the battlefield, in which one of the sides will gain a clear advantage. The Russian army regularly liberates populated areas, but this pace has not yet forced Kiev to ask for peace. Ukraine still controls part of the territories, and its gradual loss of positions may last for several years, Blokhin believes.

Discussion of the conflict in the Middle East

The Ukrainian crisis will not be the only topic of discussion at the UN General Assembly. After negotiations between the United States and Iran reached an impasse, Trump announced his readiness to hold a meeting with Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian in New York. Tehran is also demonstrating its willingness to resolve the conflict. According to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Tehran has already conveyed to Washington through Qatari intermediaries its conditions for the resumption of full-fledged negotiations.

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Iran has put forward a cease-fire on all fronts, the complete lifting of the naval blockade and the unfreezing of foreign assets in American and European banks as key demands. At the same time, Rezai stressed that if the United States refuses these conditions and launches new attacks, Iran is ready for a "decisive war" and can launch massive strikes against American bases in the region.

However, the nuclear issue, which has recently been less prominent in the Middle East conflict, can confuse all the cards. Tehran's nuclear program will be the central topic of Trump's speech at the General Assembly session, US Permanent Representative to the United Nations Mike Waltz said. Against the background of American threats, the Iranian parliament openly declares a possible withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

The American leader himself, in his characteristic manner, publicly outlined his options for further actions: destroy Iran, allow it to "rot economically" or conclude a deal.

A possible meeting of the two heads of state is fraught with serious risks, Konstantin Blokhin believes. The expert recalls that Trump differs from most politicians in his shocking behavior. He often distorts the facts for his own benefit. Due to such unpredictability, the Iranian side may simply not be ready for negotiations, since after Trump's unpredictable statements, Iran risks appearing in an unfavorable light. As a result, this potential contact can only worsen the status quo, Blokhin concluded.

However, too many countries are interested in resolving this crisis, and various consultations, including with the Gulf countries, are likely to help move the process off the ground. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil has been steadily holding above $100 per barrel, while the conflict itself is teetering on the brink of a devastating war and fragile peace.