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- After hearing the voice: the results of the local elections in Germany were a disaster for Merz
After hearing the voice: the results of the local elections in Germany were a disaster for Merz
The next elections in the federal states of Germany have put the ruling party and Friedrich Merz at risk. The Chancellor personally called the results in Mecklenburg—Vorpommern a "disaster." And in Berlin, the CDU is losing total control of the city hall. Due to the high results of the far-right "Alternative for Germany", it is increasingly difficult for systemic parties to form coalitions, and their governments are unstable. As the country slides into deindustrialization, the protest electorate is gaining strength. Where the Christian Democrats miscalculated and whether Merz will hold on to the post of Chancellor of Germany is in the "Izvestia" material.
Election results in Mecklenburg—Vorpommern and Berlin
On September 20, parliamentary elections were held in Germany in two regions of the eastern part of the country — Mecklenburg—Vorpommern and Berlin. A few weeks ago, the ruling party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), suffered a crushing defeat in Saxony—Anhalt, gaining only 17.2% of the vote. This is the CDU's worst result in the history of land elections: the results "fell" below the historical low of 1998, which cast doubt even on Friedrich Merz's future as chancellor. At the same time, the ultra-right "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), which is rapidly gaining popularity, won, so the results of the next local elections in Germany and around the world were watched especially closely.
The most alarming situation for Merz's party is in Mecklenburg—Vorpommern. For the first time in history, there was a real risk of not overcoming the five percent barrier and not getting seats in the Landtag. As of 22:00 on September 20, the CDU was barely gaining the necessary votes. By this point, the AFD was ahead by a couple of percent of another of the traditional systemic parties, the Social Democrats (SPD), led by the popular Prime Minister of the region, Manuela Schwesig (37.9% versus 35.7%).
All this reinforces the arguments of those who believe that Merz is unable to hold the electorate of the right spectrum. According to Fedor Basov, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, the popularity of AFG in Mecklenburg—Vorpommern is growing for economic reasons: the deterioration of the purchasing power of the population, the lack of a driver for economic growth. Unemployment in this already economically weak region reaches 8%, which is higher than the national average.
The rating of the far–right is also boosted by constant discussions about the possibility of resuming the "Nord Stream — 2" - the region is located on the coast of the Baltic Sea, through which the gas pipeline is laid. After the explosion in 2022, electricity and energy prices soared by 30-40%, which is primarily felt by ordinary citizens. The AfD called for the restoration of the joint venture right on the eve of the elections.
"But what else has been done with Mecklenburg—Vorpommern? They've installed LNG terminals there, which are buzzing all day, which is why residents are outraged," said Tino Fragalla, co-chairman of the party. However, given the continued refusal of German parties to cooperate with the AfD (the so-called firewall), it is unlikely that a high result in this region will give them real leadership opportunities, and Schwesig is likely to retain his post.
In Berlin, we are not talking about the CDU's complete failure, but the election results certainly do not add points to Merz's party. In the capital, there was a stubborn struggle between the left, the CDU and the AfD, which in the future meant a possible loss of control over the city hall of the capital, which the CDU had held in recent years. By 22:00, the parties had gained 25.3%, 19% and 16.3%, respectively. The separation of the left from the Christian Democrats is severely damaging the reputation of the latter. An affordable housing crisis has broken out in Berlin, and the left has made this issue the core of its program, which has produced the corresponding result.
The situation with migrants remains an equally painful issue for voters, despite the developed culture of hospitality, says "Izvestia" senior researcher at MGIMO University of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Artem Sokolov. Berlin ranks first in the country in terms of the absolute number of migrants (foreigners and people with a migration background), and official German criminal statistics record a high proportion of suspects "without a German passport" (about 44-48%). It is not surprising that many people vote for the AfD, which consistently advocates a radical tightening of migration policy.
But the main problem, and not only in the eastern lands, is deindustrialization: people are afraid of unemployment. A study by the credit insurance company Allianz Trade showed that in the first half of 2026, more than 30 companies with an annual turnover of at least €50 million went bankrupt in the country, which is 10% more than in the same period of 2025. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz himself recently admitted that the number of jobs in German industry is declining.
How will the election affect Merz's positions
During the week, Merz's nationwide popularity rating dropped to 14%, while support for the conservative CDU/CSU bloc dropped to its lowest level — just 18%. The reasons were the prolonged stagnation of the economy, high energy prices, as well as disagreements between the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD parties, which did not allow them to carry out reforms, Fyodor Basov draws attention.
Scenarios for Friedrich Merz's replacement are reportedly already being openly discussed within the CDU in order to save the party's position. At least a week and a half ago, the authorities in Grosberen near Berlin sent an official letter to the Chancellor. 33 party members demanded a review of the political course, although they did not directly call for resignation. But on the sidelines, they are already allegedly talking about a possible "ultimatum" from the CDU land premiers.
Immediately after the party's failure in Saxony-Anhalt, Merz announced that he had no plans to give up and was not going to resign. At the same time, he obviously understands all the risks of his position. Merz canceled a trip to New York for a session of the UN General Assembly and called an emergency leadership meeting at the time of publication of the first exit polls to discuss all possible scenarios. The chancellor called the first results in Mecklenburg—Vorpommern a "disaster."
Political scientist Alexander Rahr, who lives in Germany, emphasizes that the CDU and the SPD have long been losing their status as popular parties. In the eastern part of the country, after 35 years of German unification, non-traditional parties are still winning, and without them it is impossible to create a government. The main reason is that an increasing number of Germans are not satisfied with the country's economic policy. Especially the fact that the policy of active militarization makes it necessary to direct budget funds primarily to rearm the army and support Ukraine, despite the obvious problems, notes Artyom Sokolov.
— I even feel that there is a certain panic or even hysteria here. On the part of the systemic parties, there is a search for enemies, they are seen both in the face of the AFD and in the face of Russia," says Rahr.
Curiously, the militarization of Germany worries even its allies. According to The Wall Street Journal, European officials are increasingly concerned about Germany's plans for a large-scale military buildup. Brussels fears that the strengthening of the Bundeswehr will change the balance of power on the continent.
Regional elections in eastern Germany will not lead to the collapse of the ruling coalition and early elections to the Bundestag, as this is not beneficial to the ruling parties with a majority there, Basov believes. And Merz's likely successors have not yet expressed their willingness to take up his position ahead of schedule. But it is already obvious that the forces of the mainstream need to create coalitions of three or more parties, which leads to a compromise nature of the government and to the instability of such governments.
It is important to note that the AFD in Saxony-Anhalt did not receive an absolute majority and difficult negotiations are still underway to form a government. At the same time, experts believe that the populist Sarah Wagenknecht Union can still support the party, which will further increase the chance of such coalitions and increase the protest electorate. Thus, the firewall is beginning to wear off, as the central authorities are obviously unable to solve the structural problems in the economy on their own.
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