Level of development: Russia's budget deficit in 2027 will not exceed 2%

At an economic meeting on September 17, Vladimir Putin stressed that in 2027 the authorities expect to keep the budget deficit within 2% of GDP with a "conservative" forecast of oil prices of $50 per barrel. Experts call this a reasonable margin of safety, but warn that recent successes in filling the budget are largely based on the one-time payment of dividends and strict tax collection. In order to maintain stability, it is important for the state to develop and support domestic businesses. At the same time, the main task of the new three-year term remains the unconditional fulfillment of all social obligations to citizens and ensuring national security.

Sustainability of the Russian economy

On September 17, the Russian President held a traditional meeting on economic issues. The heads of key ministries, the leadership of the government, the Central Bank and the presidential Administration came to the Kremlin for this meeting. In his opening remarks, Vladimir Putin positively assessed the main economic indicators and the work of the financial and economic bloc. According to him, the slowdown in inflation, the growth of incomes not related to oil and gas trade, and the work based on their conservative approach to commodity prices guarantee the stability of public finances.

The Russian economy remains stable and fully meets the planned expectations of the authorities. The main engine of growth was strong domestic demand, the active work of domestic enterprises and non-resource budget revenues that increased by 18% in the first eight months of 2026. As a result, the federal budget received a surplus of 606 billion rubles in August.

This fact has become a good signal, but it is too early to transfer the result of one month to the whole year, says Georgy Ostapkovich, research director of the HSE Center for Market Research. He explained that one—time receipts played a significant role here, mainly dividends from the largest state-owned companies. Sberbank alone transferred 850 billion rubles to the treasury, payments also came from VTB and Dom.RF. Since such payments occur only once a year, this source will not bring as much money to the budget in September.

The joint efforts of the government and the Bank of Russia helped to control the price increase: Vladimir Putin stressed that by September 14, inflation had dropped to 6.2% in annual terms (against 10.3% in the first quarter of 2025). Unemployment remains at a historic low of 2.3%, while real wages increased by 6.5% in the first half of the year. This spurred consumer activity. In particular, retail sales increased by 5.4% in seven months, the president said. By the end of the year, GDP growth is expected to be within 1%, which fully coincides with the initial budget plans, he noted.

As for the budget deficit for the current year, Georgy Ostapkovich suggested that it could approach 2.5–3% of GDP. However, the economist stressed that such a level does not threaten the financial stability of the country: Russia's public debt remains relatively small, and a temporary excess of expenses over income is quite acceptable if the money goes to social obligations and other priorities. To reduce this gap in the future, the rejection of inefficient spending and a more accurate allocation of budget funds will help.

Vladimir Putin outlined a tougher target for the budget deficit in the coming years at the meeting.

Budget prospects for 2027

Putin said that the government is finalizing a forecast of socio-economic development for 2027-2029, which will form the basis of the budget for the next three years. The President has clearly set out its key guidelines: the main task of the budget will remain the fulfillment of all social obligations to citizens, ensuring national security and strengthening the country's defense capability.

— The federal budget deficit is expected to be about 2%. And this is with a very conservative estimate of the oil price — we forecast it to be about $ 50 per barrel. It may even look super conservative, but it is reliable, and the National Welfare Fund will also grow," Vladimir Putin stressed.

Experts call the budget deficit target of 2% of GDP for 2027 quite realistic. This indicator can be achieved thanks to discreet planning, according to financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to him, even when preparing the budget for 2026, the authorities took into account past mistakes: revenues began to be estimated more cautiously, and expenses were distributed more evenly throughout the year. As a result, it has become easier to monitor the treasury's balance sheet, and the risk of sudden adjustments has noticeably decreased.

Oil and gas revenues can also help reduce the deficit. The authorities have set the price of raw materials at $50 per barrel as the basis of the budget for 2027, so if the quotes turn out to be higher, the treasury will receive additional revenues. Alexey Rodin considers this scenario quite likely: due to supply and logistics problems, the cost of a barrel may exceed $50 for another six months to a year.

Candidate of Economic Sciences Andrey Barkhota looks at the situation more cautiously. Given the restrictions on Russian exports, he suggests targeting $43-45 per barrel, noting that high prices are still supporting the budget, but everything may change as soon as tensions in the Middle East subside.

In such circumstances, income that is not related to the export of raw materials is especially important. Georgy Ostapkovich attributes their growth this year primarily to tax changes and stricter collection of payments, rather than to the acceleration of the economy itself. It will be difficult to keep this level: according to the expert, expensive loans prevent companies from investing, upgrading production and increasing profits, from which taxes are paid.

Nevertheless, there are still opportunities for stable replenishment of the treasury. Alexey Rodin believes that further growth in fees should come at the expense of economic development, because a change in the tax burden can cause a negative reaction from businesses and people.

It is important to restart the investment cycle, adds Georgy Ostapkovich: affordable loans will allow enterprises to upgrade their capacities, increase profits and pay more taxes in the future.