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- To throw off the disguise: the share of bad debts in banks is 1.5 times higher than official estimates
To throw off the disguise: the share of bad debts in banks is 1.5 times higher than official estimates
Banks have become more active in reissuing loans to businesses that could potentially go into arrears, according to the Central Bank's data, which was analyzed by "Izvestia". In June, the volume of risky restructurings reached 4.8 trillion rubles. This is one and a half times more than the delay rate according to official statistics. CMAKP analysts emphasize that this is one of the options for how banks can mask the deterioration in asset quality. They also close debts in exchange for shares in companies and non-core assets. This may conceal the real scale of the deterioration of loan portfolios. How serious are the risks to the entire system from such actions and what is the benefit of banks — in the "Izvestia" material.
How overdue business debts are disguised
At the end of June, the volume of risky business loan restructurings reached 4.8 trillion rubles against 3 trillion a year earlier, according to the Central Bank. This means that financial institutions are actively reissuing loans on easier terms, which borrowers may have problems paying off or for which there has already been a delay.
In general, the overdue debt in the corporate portfolio amounts to 3.5 trillion. However, there is a broader indicator — problem debts, and, according to the regulator, it already reaches 11.5 trillion rubles. ""It also includes risky restructurings and "other problem loans,"" explained Mikhail Bryukhanov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Pervouralskbank JSC.
Through the restructuring of overdue loans, banks can mask the deterioration in the quality of their assets, according to the materials of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting (CMACP). Another way to do this is to exchange them for shares in companies and other non—core assets.
In other words, we are not talking about a massive write-off of bad debts, which is typical for a pronounced crisis, but about postponing the repayment of old debts for borrowers who hope to pay them in the future. However, these are risky loans.
Some of the restructurings are traditionally disguised problem loans, confirmed Yuri Belikov, Managing Director of the "Expert RA" rating agency. Banks resort to this precisely against the background of the borrower's difficulties in paying the debt. The volume of such loans reached 4.8 trillion rubles in June, which was one and a half times higher than the actual overdue amount. Without the leniency provided to the borrower, these debts would have added to the non-payment statistics.
If there are obvious problems with the loan, the bank should transfer it to a lower quality category with additional reserves for possible losses, said Tatiana Belyanchikova, Associate Professor of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. In fact, a financial institution has to withdraw money from circulation and put it aside in case something goes wrong with debt repayment. As a result, players are faced with a choice: to recognize the deterioration in the quality of the asset and receive a direct loss, or to maintain the formal status of the loan and postpone spending.
A problem loan can be removed from the "overdue" line, but this does not eliminate the difficulties with it, said the partner of the Pen Bar Association. & Paper by Sergey Uchitel. The bank can extend the loan term, transfer payments, or issue a new loan to cover the old one. Formally, the delay will go away, but the borrower's financial situation will not change.
"Problems begin when restructuring turns into an endless extension of a deliberately unsustainable debt," said Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam. In this case, the reporting may actually look better than the actual state of affairs.
The quality of corporate loans has really decreased recently, the Central Bank's press service confirmed to "Izvestia". At the same time, such debts are 50% covered by reserves and high-quality collateral, and the remaining risks remain moderate and can be closed by banks due to growing profits. The editors sent inquiries to the top 20 banks.
How much higher can the potential delay be than the official one?
Official statistics on problem loans will almost always be lower than the real stress level in the banking system, according to Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the "Rikom-Trust" investment company. Some of the debts continue to be accounted for as serviced after the payment schedule is changed, although the borrower's financial situation has already deteriorated.
The gap between estimated and real problem assets in the banking sector can be up to 4 percentage points, Mikhail Bryukhanov noted. If we take into account the transfer of part of such debt to non-core assets, including loan payments and ecosystem assets, the real level of distressed business debts may be closer to 14-16%, rather than the official 11.8% that the Central Bank knows about.
In theory, the actual delay in the corporate segment can now be three to four times lower than the level that would have developed if banks had acted strictly according to the original agreement and immediately reflected all non-payments without concessions, said Yuri Belikov from "Expert RA". In principle, it is unprofitable for financial organizations to act as harshly as possible, instantly overloading capital and losing customers from whom they regularly earn.
There is usually a negotiation process with large businesses, which, if necessary, leads to restructuring, continued Yuri Belikov. Eventually, a significant portion of large corporate borrowers regain their solvency and return to one or another payment schedule. However, this is not the case with all problem debts.
That is why the restructuring of corporate loans, rather than formal delinquency, is becoming the main indicator of hidden stress, says Tatiana Belyanchikova from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. When debt problems are massively and simultaneously "postponed," the accumulated deterioration in quality ceases to be a private matter for individual banks and becomes a macroeconomic risk.
How will the situation affect the banking sector
The years 2025-2026 were a period of significant deterioration in banks' loan portfolios amid an increasing burden on borrowers in all segments, Yuri Belikov noted. In retail, the situation is more transparent, as the quality of loans is immediately reflected in the increase in delinquencies. However, in the corporate segment, stress is largely masked by restructurings.
For small and medium-sized businesses, the increase in the interest burden, along with other unfavorable factors, has led to the fact that de facto every fourth borrower regularly goes into arrears with different prospects for repayment and return to schedule, "Expert RA" reported. Large enterprises may have stronger negotiating positions, and banks value them more as customers, so restructuring is more actively applied here.
The business is facing problems due to the high debt burden - many initially expected an earlier reduction in the key rate, according to the CIMAC assessment. And a significant proportion of loans are issued at a floating rate, meaning interest costs depend on the level of the Central Bank's main indicator. As a result, the period of subdued economic activity may be prolonged.
Even the regulator itself expects further "maturing" of problems in the second half of 2026. Currently, the cost of risk is 1.3%, which is included in loan rates to protect against potential losses. However, in the forecast for 2026, the Central Bank also allows for growth — it has set a range of 1.3–1.7%, Mikhail Bryukhanov noted.
Not only the share of problem loans itself remains an important marker, but also its uncovered part, which amounts to 5.8 trillion rubles, Mikhail Bryukhanov continued. This is up to 60% of the banks' capital reserve. So far, the total stock of the sector is able to cover these risks, but the opportunities to further compensate for the problems through restructurings are decreasing.
Back in 2025, overdue debt was growing faster than the loan portfolio itself, noted economist Andrei Barkhota. In his opinion, the cycle of credit deterioration has not yet been completed, and the banking sector will reach a plateau no earlier than the middle of 2027.
In the next two years, the financial result of the banking sector is likely to be more modest than in 2024 and 2025, due to the need to build up reserves, Yuri Belikov believes. If the restructured loans are unable to return to normal servicing, banks will have to admit additional losses.
Why it has become more difficult to apply for loans
The increased level of delinquency is already affecting the tightening of banks' risk policies, said Alexander Ermolaev, head of the USV collection agency. Ultimately, this leads to a deterioration in credit conditions and a tougher screening of potential borrowers. According to the NBKI, the share of approvals for retail loans in May was only 24%, meaning borrowers did not receive a loan in about three out of four cases.
If it becomes more difficult for a person to get a new loan from a bank or an MFI, his need for money does not disappear anywhere, and he can start looking for financing elsewhere, including from illegal lenders, Alexander Ermolaev continued.
At the same time, even understanding the risks does not always stop potential clients of the illegal financial market, Alexey Rodin noted. One in ten Russians is ready to turn to such a lender if it offers a lower rate. This is exactly what black creditors are playing on, offering terms 1-4 percentage points below the market level.
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