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- There are doubts: Germany is skeptical about Armenia's readiness for membership in the union
There are doubts: Germany is skeptical about Armenia's readiness for membership in the union
Armenia is making progress in adapting European standards, but it is premature to talk about full readiness for integration, Bundestag deputy Matthias Mosdorf told "Izvestia". Problems in the judicial system, corruption and Yerevan's obligations within the EAEU remain obstacles. Earlier, the Bundestag delegation paid a visit to Armenia and held talks with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Yerevan is changing its legislation according to EU standards, conducting a dialogue on visa liberalization and considering an application for membership. Experts, however, emphasize that it will be extremely difficult to maintain full participation in the EAEU and move towards joining the EU, and the consequences of leaving the Eurasian Union would be catastrophic for Yerevan.
Visit of German parliamentarians to Armenia
Traditionally, France is Armenia's key partner in the European Union, but it cannot do without Germany's support in matters of European integration. On September 18, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will travel to Germany for the ceremony of receiving the Hesse Peace Prize. He was awarded for his efforts to establish peace in the South Caucasus, as well as his efforts to bring Yerevan closer to the EU.
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
Earlier, Pashinyan received a parliamentary delegation led by Anton Hofreiter, chairman of the Bundestag Committee on EU Affairs. The interlocutors exchanged views on the further development of Armenia's relations with Germany and the European Union. The visit of the parliamentarians lasted from September 14 to September 16.
"MP" and member of the delegation Matthias Mosdorf told Izvestia that Armenia has moved "much further" in adapting to EU standards than is commonly thought in Germany. According to him, the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) has already laid a solid foundation for integration in key areas, from competition and public procurement to product safety, customs administration and legal certainty.
— At the same time, it would be unrealistic to talk about full readiness for integration. Further adaptation is needed, in particular, in the issues of uniform application of laws, independence and predictability of the work of government bodies and the judicial system, the fight against corruption, as well as compliance with technical and sanitary trade standards. In addition, Armenia's participation in the Eurasian Economic Union should be taken into account," he said.
The EAEU countries remain a key market for Armenian goods. In parallel, Yerevan has been accelerating its rapprochement with the EU in recent years. In 2025, the country's parliament adopted a law on the beginning of the process of the republic's accession to this union. Yerevan has also approved a new strategic partnership agenda, which provides for deepening cooperation with Europe.
In 2024, the EU and the Transcaucasian country began a dialogue on visa liberalization. According to Mosdorf, Armenia has already taken "significant steps" in implementing internal reforms, in particular, it has changed the migration system, updated citizenship management and started introducing new biometric documents.
"If these reforms begin to work in practice and on a permanent basis, I will consider the liberalization of the visa regime justified," he explained.
However, the European Commission has clearly stated that it is premature to talk about the exact timing of the possible introduction of a visa-free regime with Armenia. According to Hayk Khalatyan, head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives, the issue of the country's institutional readiness to join the EU is not in the first place now. According to him, the practice of the European Union shows that when making decisions on the start of integration processes, political considerations may have more weight than the actual compliance of the state with the requirements of unification, therefore, even carrying out the necessary reforms does not guarantee Yerevan's early membership.
The price of Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU
At the end of 2025, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz supported Armenia's European integration, but no specific dates were set for the country's accession to the EU. At the same time, Russia remains the key trading partner of the republic within the framework of the EAEU. Over the past 10 years of membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, Armenia's GDP has grown by more than 180%, and industrial production has tripled, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Alexei Shevtsov said earlier.
Low energy prices remain one of the main advantages for Yerevan. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted, Moscow would not like to "pay" for Armenia's European integration at the expense of the preferences that the republic receives through membership in the EAEU. It is noteworthy that the supply of Russian gas to the country was suspended for 11 days — from September 15 to September 25. ""As ""Gazprom Armenia"" press service reported, it is connected "with carrying out a complex of planned preventive maintenance and repair works on the main gas pipeline "North Caucasus – Transcaucasia" on the territory of the Russian Federation".
Moscow is calling on Armenia to decide and hold a referendum on EU membership. In addition, at the end of May, the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan stated that Yerevan's preparations for EU membership pose risks to the economic security of the union, and instructed to prepare a report by December on the consequences of a possible suspension of the republic's membership.
If Armenia withdraws from the EAEU, the economic consequences for the republic will be catastrophic, Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at MGLU, told "Izvestia". On September 15, the European Parliament abolished duties on a number of goods from Armenia for two years, but the European Union will not be able to fully compensate for losses from Yerevan's foreign policy reversal. At the same time, Brussels has not yet demonstrated its willingness to make long-term commitments, which means that support programs may not be extended for a new period, or the terms of assistance will be changed, Sidorov believes.
Yerevan, however, officially declares that it does not set itself the task of leaving the EAEU. In addition, Pashinyan emphasizes that he does not see any reason to organize a referendum now, and the obligations under the EAEU do not legally contradict the development of cooperation with the European Union.
At the same time, it will be extremely difficult to maintain full participation in the EAEU and move towards official accession to the EU, Hayk Khalatyan believes, against the background of the confrontation between the West and Russia — Moscow will take Armenia's accession to the European structure more harshly, which is openly preparing for war with the Russian Federation. In this situation, the analyst notes that it would be more beneficial for Yerevan to develop relations with the EU without an official application for membership.: This would make it possible to develop relations with Brussels without severing economic and political ties with Moscow.
The problem is aggravated by the freezing of Armenia's participation in the CSTO and the statements of the country's leadership about the Russian 102nd military base in Gyumri. According to Pashinyan, it "adds nothing" to the country's security. Russia, however, emphasizes that Moscow is ready to leave the base "even tomorrow" if the authorities in Yerevan deem it unnecessary, but is ready to maintain a military presence if the republic is interested.
However, Russia is open to discussing all controversial issues with the Armenian leadership. On September 7, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Russia could take place in the near future, but the exact dates have not yet been determined.
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