Increased pressure: new US law threatens to complicate negotiations on Ukraine
The law on new sanctions against Russia adopted by the American Congress will be used by the White House as a tool of pressure, experts say. However, its use in the context of a spike in oil prices could further destabilize energy markets. The main buyers of Russian oil and gas, such as India, have not shown willingness to follow Washington's instructions. Meanwhile, preparations for a new trilateral meeting on Ukraine are continuing: UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres supports holding talks at the high-level week in New York. The prospects for restarting the Russia–USA–Ukraine format are described in the "Izvestia" article.
The new US law on sanctions against Russia
The introduction of additional sanctions by the United States will complicate efforts to find a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. New American restrictions became possible due to the adoption of the bill named after Senator Lindsey Graham (listed as an extremist and terrorist in the Russian Federation) in the House of Representatives on September 16. The initiative was supported by 262 lawmakers, while 159 opposed it, including 152 Democrats. The Upper House approved this document back in August, and now it must be signed by Donald Trump.
Back when the bill was submitted to Parliament last year, the measures provided for in it were dubbed "hellish sanctions." The US president will have the right to impose tariffs of up to 500% on all Russian goods imported into the United States and up to 100% against the five largest Russian importers of energy resources, as well as third countries that help Russia circumvent sanctions. Reuters, citing assistants to the authors of the bill, refers to China, India, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan as the five largest buyers of Russian oil, and China, France, Japan, Hungary and Belgium as the main importers of gas from Russia.
The exception will be countries that purchase less than 15% of the gas they need in Russia and seek to reduce purchases — Paris and Brussels fall into this category, the media reported earlier. The document also provides for restrictions against the largest financial institutions of the Russian Federation and their leaders.
However, the bill leaves the introduction of these measures at the discretion of the head of state. That is why the Democrats were dissatisfied with the document. They offered to allocate a $15 billion aid package to Ukraine, and also insisted on fixing a specific list of countries against which restrictions should be imposed. However, these amendments were rejected by the Republican majority.
"This bill will dramatically expand the president's powers to impose tariffs without imposing mandatory sanctions against Russia, both of which are unacceptable," Gregory Meeks, Don Beyer and Richard Neal, three Democrats in Congress, said in a joint statement.
However, some prohibitions, especially personal sanctions, are already in effect. Duties against Russian goods will not have a significant impact, as trade between Russia and the United States remains extremely low, despite a slight recovery after the arrival of the Trump administration. Washington had previously restricted trade with Russia itself, for example, banned the import of oil and uranium.
The same applies to pressure on Russia's partners: last year, Washington already tried to influence India in this way, but it did not abandon Russian oil. After the adoption of the new US law, India intends to take "necessary measures" to protect its trade and economic interests, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic said in a statement.
"Izvestia" previously wrote that Slovakia, one of the main importers of oil from Russia in Europe, has no plans to terminate the contract with Moscow. But Hungary, after the change of government, promises to reduce purchases of gas and oil from the Russian Federation and asks the United States not to impose additional duties against it, said Marton Gaidu, head of the Hungarian parliament's foreign affairs committee, following a visit to Washington.
Against the background of rising oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, Washington will act cautiously so as not to further destabilize energy markets, according to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies. In his opinion, the Trump administration can use the law as a pretext to impose tariffs on countries that have nothing to do with trade with Russia. In addition, the document provides for the expansion of powers to impose sanctions against Iran's energy and weapons sectors. Moreover, these provisions were initiated by Donald Trump himself.
The threat of tariffs will be used by Trump as a lever of political pressure to force the parties to engage in active negotiations, according to HSE analyst Egor Toropov. Even in the case of the actual implementation of the next US trade restrictions against Russia, certain trade categories will probably be excluded from the sanctions regime under the pretext of their critical importance for the American economy, the expert believes.
Prospects for negotiations on Ukraine
During a speech in North Carolina on September 17, Donald Trump once again announced that his administration was working hard to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. Special Envoy of the President of the United States Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner visited Russia on September 5.
— In general, it was once again confirmed that the current US administration shows a greater understanding of the Russian position than the previous one. The President of the United States and his team demonstrate a constructive attitude and see the motives for our demand for the unconditional provision of reliable security guarantees to the Russian Federation. At the same time, we will judge, as always, not by words, but by deeds," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told "Izvestia".
The diplomat stressed that in the context of its main message, Russia remains unchanged: Moscow intends to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, whether through political, diplomatic or military means, and establish a lasting and long-term peace based on ensuring the fundamental interests of the Russian Federation.
The last trilateral meeting was held in Geneva in February, and then Washington interacted with Moscow and Kiev separately. After the recent trip of Witkoff and Kushner to Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump had a telephone conversation and agreed to continue contacts. Dmitry Peskov admitted that a new round of contacts will take place in October.
The venue of the meeting and its agenda are currently being discussed. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he supports holding trilateral talks during the high-level week of the UN General Assembly from September 22 to 28. Sergey Lavrov plans to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at this venue. The head of Russian diplomacy earlier stressed that Moscow is ready for a new round of negotiations on Ukraine and "has something to say."
In addition to New York, Turkey and the UAE, where contacts took place earlier, are on the list of possible venues for negotiations. Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov called the Abu Dhabi negotiating platform quite acceptable to Russia. But Moscow does not consider Switzerland as a neutral meeting place.
According to Jared Kushner, the most difficult issue remains the territorial one. Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly stated that Russia demands the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the territories they occupy, but Ukraine refuses. For Moscow, the observance of the rights of Russian speakers remains an important issue. A possible topic could potentially be the energy truce that Donald Trump was talking about. The Kremlin previously noted that they are in contact with the United States on this issue. The new round of negotiations will allow us to compare clocks and determine the positions of the parties, said Oleg Karpovich, head of the Department of the MGIMO Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
In fact, Europe has become the main obstacle to a settlement. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised "unprecedented strong support" for Ukraine in her keynote speech to the European Parliament on September 16. Unlike the United States, Brussels has not offered Russia any negotiating initiatives, Dmitry Peskov told "Izvestia" earlier. Therefore, in order to resolve the conflict, Washington needs to put pressure on its allies and achieve their desire for peace.
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