By their income: informal employment displaces formal work
Out-of-state earnings are increasingly replacing a permanent position for Russians. Over the year, the number of those who work only in the informal sector has increased by 185 thousand, to almost 15 million, and those who combine such activities with hiring has decreased by 74 thousand, FinExpertiza estimates ("Izvestia" has). People are attracted by flexible schedules and fast payouts, and hiring is becoming more expensive for businesses. But as a result, companies risk being left without staff, and people without paid sick leave and pensions. If voluntary insurance does not attract the self-employed, payments to state funds may become mandatory, experts warn. How this shift threatens the economy and who will have to pay for the social protection of millions of Russians is in the "Izvestia" article.
How many Russians work outside the state
In the second quarter of 2026, 15.2 million Russians worked in the informal sector, the maximum for this period in seven years. Such calculations based on Rosstat data were presented by the analytical service of the FinExpertiza audit and consulting network. This segment accounted for 20.4% of all employees in the country — about one in five.
We are not necessarily talking about shady activities. Rosstat classifies the self-employed, sole proprietors and their employees, as well as employees of family and other enterprises that are not registered as a legal entity, into this category. These can be taxi drivers, construction workers, cleaners, tutors, trade and catering staff, as well as lawyers, doctors and other qualified professionals if they work outside the corporate sector.
At the same time, the total number of working Russians increased by 230,000 over the year, of which 111,000 were in the informal sector. According to Elena Trubnikova, president of FinExpertiza, this is a moderate trend: for example, in 2024, this segment immediately added 2 million people.
However, with a relatively stable total population of about 15 million, the structure of informal employment is changing. According to analysts, only 5%, or 750,000 such employees, work in companies at the same time. For the remaining 14.5 million, this sector remains the only source of income. During the year, there were 185 thousand more of them. On the contrary, the number of applicants decreased by 74 thousand, or by 9%. Thus, the entire increase was provided by people not connected with the corporate sector, Elena Trubnikova emphasized.
According to FinExpertiza, the indicator increased in 38 regions. The strongest is in the Tyumen region: almost twice. It increased by more than 1.5 times in the Lipetsk Region, by 40% in the Jewish Autonomous Region, by 36% in the Penza Region and by 26% in the Oryol Region.
According to the study, the largest share still falls in the North Caucasus, which is predominantly agricultural regions with high unemployment and relatively low incomes. In Ingushetia, more than two thirds of residents work outside the corporate sector, while in Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Dagestan and Karachay-Cherkessia— almost half work.
Analysts recorded minimum values in the Magadan Region — 3%, in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and the Sverdlovsk Region — 3% each, as well as in the Yamalo—Nenets Autonomous District — 8% and the Murmansk Region - 9%. These territories are characterized by a developed corporate sector and a high concentration of large enterprises.
"Izvestia" sent requests to the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Labor.
Why do people go to work for themselves
The growth of the informal sector has been spurred by marketplaces, taxi aggregators and delivery services, according to the deputy CEO of "Work.<url>", Alexander Veterkov, Chief Operating Officer of "Sberpodbor". They allow you to quickly receive orders without interviews and registration in the staff, and the money is immediately after the shift. According to the company's research, more than 20% of Russians regularly earn extra money. At the same time, the shortage of personnel encourages companies to involve people more often in individual projects through contractors and platforms, he added.
At the same time, it is becoming more difficult for businesses to hire staff," said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at "Finam" Financial Group. In the first half of 2026, economic growth slowed to 0.6%, output is falling in many industries, and costs have increased. It is especially difficult for small businesses.
Traditionally, this employment model is common in trade, construction, repairs, household services, transportation and agriculture, said Andrey Glushkin, managing partner of the Main Division and member of the General Council of "Business Russia". He attributes the growing number of those for whom this is the only income to the transition from the state to independent activity.
A separate incentive is the opportunity to receive more. With gray payments, employers save on insurance premiums and can use part of these funds to pay for labor, explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.
What are the risks?
It's premature to talk about crowding out hiring, but the redistribution of personnel is obvious, says Alexander Veterkov from "Work.ru". According to a study by the service, in 2026, the vacancy rate for candidates without experience has significantly decreased. Many job seekers eventually become self-employed, he noted.
This is exacerbating the structural shortage of staff, added Andrey Glushkin from "Business Russia". In services, construction, logistics, and retail, companies have to compete for people not only with each other, but also with more flexible earning formats.
At the same time, the risks for employees from such a model are very noticeable. Alexander Veterkov especially singled out pre-retirees and those who live only on income from self-employment: without pension contributions, such activities do not replenish insurance experience. Replacing an employment contract with a civil one also deprives a person of guarantees, including paid leave, he noted.
The least protected are the unregistered employees of individuals and the self-employed without voluntary insurance, Andrei Glushkin believes. The latter can independently pay pension contributions and separately for sick leave. However, according to Alexander Veterkov, the program is not in demand. As "Izvestia" previously wrote, in the first quarter of 2026, pension insurance received only 574 million rubles (8.5% of the annual plan of the authorities), and 34 million rubles (0.5%) for sick leave.
Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Global estimated the losses from gray salaries at 2-4 trillion rubles annually for the budget and the Social Fund together. Of these, at least 1 trillion is accounted for by unpaid contributions. Legalization of payments could bring 1-2 trillion rubles to the budget, or 0.4–1% of GDP, she believes. In her opinion, further loss of income is more dangerous for the Social Fund: losses of several trillion, or 5-10% of its budget, may become critical.
While people are saving on contributions, the burden on the pension system is growing, Andrei Glushkin agrees. If this trend continues, the authorities will have more reason to introduce minimum mandatory contributions from the self-employed. The expert assumes such a scenario after 2028, at the end of the experiment. Olga Belenkaya also expects serious changes: in her opinion, the very preservation of the regime may be in question. Therefore, according to experts, the current opportunity to independently decide whether to pay for future pensions and sick leave will not necessarily remain with the self-employed for a long time.
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